SoH E: 0.7/day
BAM SE: 8.4/day
Except US military operations are costing $435 million per day.
After 30 days we're spending $13 billion trying to free-up $9 billion worth of oil.
Just brilliant.
Trump says U.S. secretly moved more than 100 million barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz
Sad!
Trump tells CNBC: ‘I don’t care’ if Iran negotiations are over
... But when asked if he has reached out to NATO to participate in reopening the strait, Trump said, “They would if I wanted them to, but I’m not sure I want them to.” ...
U.S. intercepts Iran missiles targeting American forces in Kuwait: CENTCOM
Treasury yields rise after Iran reportedly stops communication with U.S.
U.S. oil jumps more than 7% on report Iran will halt talks with U.S. and completely block Hormuz
U.S. oil prices jumped nearly 8% Monday, after Iranian state media said Tehran will halt talks with the U.S. and completely close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. ...
Tehran will completely block the Strait of Hormuz and open other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Tasnim reported. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. ...
And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.
BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.
SoH transits:
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war
... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...
Global oil production in 2025 was about 106 million barrels per day.
The Persian Gulf share of that was about 31 million barrels per day.
Analysis: The Iran war has made inequality worse. An end won’t fix it
The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.
The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.
There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update.
BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.
Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full.
SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.
U.S. conducts ‘self-defense strikes’ in Iran as Trump pushes for peace deal
... CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. ...
Why is the winner pushing for a peace deal?
Usually the loser does that.
Iran is in the ‘process of blinking’ over the Strait of Hormuz, Petraeus says
The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.
There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.
It is what it is.
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| From JMIC 47 |
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| From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!) |