The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.
There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.
It is what it is.
 |
| From JMIC 47 |
 |
| From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!) |
Global oil stockpiles could hit record lows if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
... Inventories were near a decade high at just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February, Swiss bank UBS estimated in a Tuesday report. By end of April, stockpiles fell to 7.8 billion barrels, UBS analysts said.
Inventories will approach record lows of 7.6 billion barrels by end of May if demand remains the same month over month, the UBS analysts said. Inventories falling to that level would stress the supply chain, JPMorgan analysts said in an April 30 note.
Billions of barrels in inventory may sound like a lot but the reality is that only about 800 million barrels are available without straining the system, the JPMorgan analysts said. The rest is needed to keep pipelines and tanks filled at minimum levels so the supply chain operates efficiently, they said.
“Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation,” said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy. “The system does not fail because oil disappears, it fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume.”
Oil inventories would fall to a critically low level of 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz is still closed at that time, JPMorgan forecast. Product inventories would hit critical levels sooner in July or August, according to a forecast from Rapidan Energy.
The global economy would “seize up, with critical transportation infrastructure unable to source fuel at any price,” Rapidan analysts said in May 7 note.
But inventories are very unlikely to reach these critically low levels, the analysts said. Instead, oil and product prices will spike to curtail demand which will cause “a severe economic contraction.”
“That’s likely to happen before 3Q26,” the Rapidan analysts said.
Strait of Hormuz 1.57/day.
BAM tanker transits aren't even up to 2022's average of 30/day. The crisis of the oil trade is not being significantly ameliorated by Red Sea operations.
Estimates continue to put 5 million barrels per day leaving Yanbu, much of it heading to buyers in east Asia.
Fujairah in the UAE exports shy of 2 million barrels per day, also to the east.
Iran's exports in April are said to be shy of 1 million barrels per day.
Kuwait exported nothing.
Iraq exported maybe 0.131 million barrels per day.
So 8.1 million barrels per day in April?
21.0 million barrels per day left the region in 2022.
Update 5/18/26:
IEA estimates 8 mb/day bypassing Strait of Hormuz, flows still far below pre-war levels.
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 30-May 6, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 28-May 4, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 26-May 2, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 23-29, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 21-27, 2026
SoH E tankers: 2.57 per day April 16-22
SoH W tankers: 2.00 per day
Normal (2022): ~70.00 total per day
Down 93%
BAM tankers SE: 6.57 per day April 16-22
BAM tankers NW: 6.28 per day
Normal (2022): ~30.00 total per day
Down 57%
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
With the United States blockading all supply coming in to Iran and seizing some vessels, there are roughly 100 container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf from which Iran can choose anytime it wishes to go shopping.
Iran says it has seized two ships in Strait of Hormuz after U.S. extends ceasefire
Iran’s navy on Wednesday said it had seized two container ships in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, shortly after the U.S. extended the ceasefire and as diplomats seek to bring the countries together for peace talks.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said in a statement that it had seized the ships for what it claimed were maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, according to state media. CNBC could not independently verify the claim.
The announcement came after U.K. maritime authorities said two ships had been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported a third vessel had also been targeted by the country’s military. ...
The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.
And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.
Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.
Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.
Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow?
But tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz average just 2 per day April 12-18.
After the 13th, just 10 tankers have exited over 5 days, also 2 per day.
Tankers transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea, whether northwest (3.5/day) and possibly through the Suez or southeast (4/day) and headed to East Asia, average 7.5 per day.
Suezmax tankers carrying up to 1 million barrels of oil are the largest which can pass fully laden through the Suez.
Before the war, a dozen or so VLCCs, which have a capacity of 2 million barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz daily out of 65-70 tankers which did so.
Total SoH tanker exits daily used to average 25-30.
Yanbu on the Red Sea can fill 2-5 tankers daily depending on the size (maybe 4 Suezmax), plus 2 per day out of the Persian Gulf, so we are at the max operating at 23% of normal tanker exits in the last week (7/30).
And again, that's just tankers, not a statement of actual oil volume.
And which of these were stopped by the U.S. Navy after transit only the Navy knows, as do people whose full time job it is to know, which isn't me.
If Monday pays attention to reality, oil prices will rise.
The Wall Street Journal, here:
... The strait has been a particular source of frustration. Before the U.S. went to war, Trump told his team that Iran’s government would likely capitulate before closing the strait, and that even if Tehran tried, the U.S. military could handle it, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Some of the president’s advisers were caught off guard that tanker traffic would grind to a halt so quickly after the bombing began, according to a person in contact with the White House.
Trump has since marveled at the ease with which the strait was closed. A guy with a drone can shut it down, Trump has said to people, expressing belated irritation that the key waterway was so vulnerable. He has publicly oscillated between demanding support from allies to help open it and insisting that the U.S. doesn’t need or want military assistance. ...
White House concerns about security threats have been heightened, aides said.
In recent weeks, for example, Trump and his team have noticed an increase in security. On a cloudless night in April at Mar-a-Lago, every umbrella was up on the patio in an unusual arrangement, guests said. Club members were told that there was an effort to limit drone visibility, a Mar-a-Lago member said.
Rubio told others about standing outside his home at the military compound where he lives and watching a suspicious drone, administration officials said. Secret Service protection teams have expanded to carry weapons White House officials had never seen before. ...
