The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.
There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.
It is what it is.
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| From JMIC 47 |
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| From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!) |
Strait of Hormuz 1.57/day.
BAM tanker transits aren't even up to 2022's average of 30/day. The crisis of the oil trade is not being significantly ameliorated by Red Sea operations.
Estimates continue to put 5 million barrels per day leaving Yanbu, much of it heading to buyers in east Asia.
Fujairah in the UAE exports shy of 2 million barrels per day, also to the east.
Iran's exports in April are said to be shy of 1 million barrels per day.
Kuwait exported nothing.
Iraq exported maybe 0.131 million barrels per day.
So 8.1 million barrels per day in April?
21.0 million barrels per day left the region in 2022.
Update 5/18/26:
IEA estimates 8 mb/day bypassing Strait of Hormuz, flows still far below pre-war levels.
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 30-May 6, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 28-May 4, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 26-May 2, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 23-29, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 21-27, 2026
SoH E tankers: 2.57 per day April 16-22
SoH W tankers: 2.00 per day
Normal (2022): ~70.00 total per day
Down 93%
BAM tankers SE: 6.57 per day April 16-22
BAM tankers NW: 6.28 per day
Normal (2022): ~30.00 total per day
Down 57%
The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.
And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.
Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.
Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.
Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow?
But tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz average just 2 per day April 12-18.
After the 13th, just 10 tankers have exited over 5 days, also 2 per day.
Tankers transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea, whether northwest (3.5/day) and possibly through the Suez or southeast (4/day) and headed to East Asia, average 7.5 per day.
Suezmax tankers carrying up to 1 million barrels of oil are the largest which can pass fully laden through the Suez.
Before the war, a dozen or so VLCCs, which have a capacity of 2 million barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz daily out of 65-70 tankers which did so.
Total SoH tanker exits daily used to average 25-30.
Yanbu on the Red Sea can fill 2-5 tankers daily depending on the size (maybe 4 Suezmax), plus 2 per day out of the Persian Gulf, so we are at the max operating at 23% of normal tanker exits in the last week (7/30).
And again, that's just tankers, not a statement of actual oil volume.
And which of these were stopped by the U.S. Navy after transit only the Navy knows, as do people whose full time job it is to know, which isn't me.
If Monday pays attention to reality, oil prices will rise.
Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed again as vessels attempting to cross come under gunfire
... Shortly after the Iranian statements, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker reported being fired on by two gunboats operated by Iran’s IRGC. The incident happened 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman, the UKMTO said. The tanker and its crew were reported safe, and authorities are investigating, the UKMTO said. ...
"Historically average daily transit through the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 138 vessels per day."
Transit Average April 9-15 Strait of Hormuz: 5.1 vessels per day
Persian Gulf Activity: 1.7/day last week vs. 0.3/day prior week
Red Sea Activity: 11.1/day last week vs. 18.6/day prior week
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| JMIC Advisory Mar 29 |
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| JMIC Advisory Mar 22 |
Trump says Iran let 10 oil ships through Strait of Hormuz as ‘present’ to U.S.
... “That was three days ago, and I didn’t think much about it,” he said. ...
No kidding.
This cockamamie idea sounds like it was thought up by Howard Lutnick.
The vessels went to China and India, and transited along the coast of Iran after passing between Qeshm and Larak and did not take the usual central passage, so they probably had to pay tolls.
I wonder if they sent the bill to Mexico? 🤣
Sounds more like a gift to our competitors and enemies than to us.
UKMTO reported ten transits two days ago, but not all were oil, and some were outbound and some inbound; this summary is probably what someone showed to Trump and they just assumed it was all oil outbound when it was not:
Normal transits are about 138/day vs. four on March 22 and six on March 23.
