Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts

Thursday, May 14, 2026

From JMIC Update 45: Bab-el-Mandeb Strait tanker transits average 13.42/day May 7-13, 2026

 Strait of Hormuz 1.57/day.

BAM tanker transits aren't even up to 2022's average of 30/day. The crisis of the oil trade is not being significantly ameliorated by Red Sea operations.

 

Estimates continue to put 5 million barrels per day leaving Yanbu, much of it heading to buyers in east Asia.

Fujairah in the UAE exports shy of 2 million barrels per day, also to the east. 

Iran's exports in April are said to be shy of 1 million barrels per day.

Kuwait exported nothing.

Iraq exported maybe 0.131 million barrels per day.

So 8.1 million barrels per day in April?

21.0 million barrels per day left the region in 2022. 

 

Update 5/18/26:

IEA estimates 8 mb/day bypassing Strait of Hormuz, flows still far below pre-war levels.


 

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Christopher Caldwell for The New York Times thinks the American Empire has met its match in the Persian Gulf when it already met it a year ago in the Red Sea

... the United States lacks the military means to impose its will on Iran in a long conflict. In 1991 a million soldiers from more than 40 countries were needed to reverse the invasion of Kuwait carried out by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, a country less sophisticated than Iran and a fraction of its size. When Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill in the 1980s, deaths ran into the hundreds of thousands on each side. The United States would have to send a significant portion of its armed forces — which total only 1.3 million troops — to stand a chance of subduing Iran, and that force, if successful, would have to stay for a long time. ...

Here.

Caldwell is just as blind as Trump.

Neither one gets it that the lowly Houthis already beat us to a draw last year in the Red Sea.

Nothing is moving out of the Persian Gulf today, and tanker traffic through the Red Sea is less than half what it used to be in 2022, even under the new conditions of a world desperately thirsty for the Middle East oil no longer coming out of the former.

And neither one gets it that you can't have an American Empire without paying for it. 

We're $39 trillion in debt and can no longer impose our will in the world's vital choke-points because elites have pretended since Reagan that low marginal income tax rates are sufficient to maintain American Empire when what those rates have done is impoverish us and enrich our adversaries.

1,135 billionaires are the symbol of our lost empire. 

Caldwell steers well clear of naming the obvious remedy, and Trump's Big Ugly Bill will  do nothing but put America $62 trillion in debt by the end of 2032.

Taxes must be raised . . . a lot.

Thursday, April 9, 2026

America is no longer a world superpower because it doesn't have a Navy capable of maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, let alone in the West Philippine Sea or the Taiwan Strait

But we can still put people in a tin can and send them around the moon like we did already in 1968.

We also don't have a military capable of stopping Russian aggression in Europe, because we're too tired after Iraq and Afghanistan.

Put up or shut up, Ben. 

Saturday, March 7, 2026

If Daniel McCarthy were a conservative who understood history and human nature, he wouldn't issue embarrassing pronunciamentos like these

 Win or lose, Donald Trump has begun the last war the United States is ever likely to fight in the Middle East. ...

That's what we thought in 1991 about the victorious George H. W. Bush. And then somehow we lost our minds and elected blow-job Bill with his Sunday-go-to-meeting Bible under his arm, big enough to choke a mule. 

The state of mind – and the state of the world – that made possible the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, has passed, never to return. ...

There wasn't a single state of mind from 1991 to 2003.

We didn't choose 9/11. It chose us and changed our minds. And the lunatics in Tehran are crazier and far more dangerous than Osama ever was.

Hell, we didn't even choose the Gulf War. Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, and set it on fire as it withdrew in January 1991.

We didn't choose this Iran War, either. Iran chose it for us when its proxies invaded our ally Israel in October 2023.

The state of mind and the state of the world . . . hasn't changed at all, except that Trump's a little slow on the uptake. 

The passions that involve us in foreign conflicts in the future will be those of a younger cohort. ...

Yes, it isn't just about a state of mind, is it? Things happen which we can't control. You can't predict "no more wars" anywhere, even though you can pretend for a long time, for example from the summer of 1939 to late 1941, and then something forces your hand.

... if the Iran war goes badly – as badly as the Iraq War did for Bush – Trump’s new style of interventionism will be repudiated by voters as thoroughly as Trump’s own election repudiated the neoconservatives. 

Bush 41 was popular because he won the Gulf War and suddenly wasn't because of the economy. And Bush 43 was re-elected convincingly in 2004, hello. If America didn't support his Iraq War, it had a funny way of showing it. There is no comparison with Trump.

Trump's economy already sucks and unsurprisingly right out of the box polling indicates Americans are against his attack on Iran. We're blowing up $1 billion a day over there and can't afford a lousy hamburger at home. We don't have to wait for Iran to go badly for the voters to repudiate Trump.

The only thing Dan is probably right about is this, unfortunately:

. . . what comes next will be an even more radical phase in domestic politics. ... 

Here.

Sunday, January 4, 2026

George W. Bush crossed the Rubicon of American Imperial pre-emptive first strikes in 2003 in Iraq but it was hotly debated in 2002, now we hardly bat an eye when Trump does it

Government of the Uniparty, by the Uniparty, and for the Uniparty.

Trump fancies that he's different from George W. Bush, but he's the same guy. 

Flashback: July 1, 2002 

Striking First: President Bush's Preemptive Strike Policy

... We can't have one kind of law for the rest of the world that we impose on the rest of the world and an imperial law, if you will, a law of empire, that applies only to the United States. ... We were seeing the possibility of a new kind of law of empire where we would stand above the rest of the world, and the bottom line when we look at the question of attacking civilians, what happens when we're wrong? Like we were today in Afghanistan, where civilians died because of bad intelligence? ...


 

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Trump captures Maduro on the sixth anniversary of his Soleimani assassination lol

 

... Explosions were reported in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, at about 2 a.m. local time (0600 GMT), according to images circulating on social media that could not be independently verified. ...

More.

... Soleimani was assassinated on 3 January 2020 around 1:00 a.m. local time (22:00 UTC 2 January),[158] by a U.S. drone strike near Baghdad International Airport.[159] 

More.


 

 



Friday, October 24, 2025

One man is about to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Venezuela

 The more the Uniparty changes, the more it stays the same.

Bush invades Iraq. Putin invades Ukraine. Trump invades Venezuela. 

Expect Xi to invade Taiwan at any minute.

One big happy family of invaders, carving up the world.

 

  • U.S. Sending Aircraft Carrier Strike Group to Waters Off Latin America
  •  


    Sunday, September 14, 2025

    It's an American tradition: Peggy Noonan loses her head

    ... We are in big trouble.

    We all know this. We don’t even know what to do with what we know. But the assassination of Charlie Kirk feels different as an event, like a hinge point, like something that is going to reverberate in new dark ways. It isn’t just another dreadful thing. It carries the ominous sense that we’re at the beginning of something bad. Michael Smerconish said on CNN Thursday afternoon that normally after such an event the temperature goes down a little, but not in this case, and he’s right. There are the heartbroken and the indifferent and they are irreconcilable. X, formerly Twitter, was from the moment of the shooting overrun with anguish and rage: It’s on now. Bluesky, where supposedly gentler folk fled Elon Musk, was gleefully violent: Too bad, live by the gun, die by the gun.

    But what a disaster all this is for the young. ...

     

    No, we are not in big trouble.

    We are simply in the same trouble we've always been in, but that doesn't sell newspapers or drive clicks.

    But surrendering to hysteria will misguide us, as surely as Tyler Robinson's feelings misguided him when he pulled that trigger, allegedly.

    Didn't the country just get over surrendering its mind to its feelings?

    Or are we, left, right, and in between, going to do this all over again? 

    Fear of death made 270 million Americans trust a completely novel vaccine in 2021, only for over 20 million new infections in early 2022 to rip the mask off the whole thing.

    We found out that we were not going to die.

    We found out that the experts oversold the threat and the vaccine, ka-ching ka-ching, that after taking it "the virus didn't stop with me". We got sick anyway, and we continued to spread it. The adults knew that the virus was mutating to spread at the cost of its deadliness, but the adults were not in charge. We ended up learning the hard way.

    The virus of violence is endemic to the world. Woke is a counterfeit. Summer 2020 was not a summer of love. Christianity is Uberwoke and explains that hate lives in us all.

    The spectrum of hate's evidence is wide: By intentional homicide rate, Canada ranks 111th in the world in 2023. Mexico ranks 18th, and the United States ranks 66th.

    But in 1975 the intentional homicide rate in the United States was 9.6 per 100,000. 9.6 is 43rd in 2023, Iraq-like. In 2023 the United States is 5.8. The rate is down 40%.

    We have become far less violent, not more, in the last fifty years, even as religious faith supposedly has declined.

    Maybe we should rethink that. Or maybe for starters we should just think.

    Brethren, be not children in understanding: howbeit in malice be ye children, but in understanding be men. 

    -- I Corinthians 14:20 

    Sunday, August 24, 2025

    Trump is so bad that Gen Z is falling in love with the guy who didn't keep us safe on 911, invented the religion of peace, gave us Michael Brown, and abandoned free market principles to save the free market system


     
     
    ... "Many comments on videos tagged as #Bushcore use past moments to contrast the current administration," Mohammed said. "Users are saying, 'These were like Bush's lowest moments. Somehow they tower over Trump's best,' or 'I would've NEVER thought 20 years ago … I wish he could be president again … I miss him,' representing how unhappy Gen Zers are with contemporary politics."
     
    "A recent YouGov/Economist poll shows that President Trump continues to have a significantly low approval rating among young voters—61 percent disapprove. They use Bush's persona as relief, reminiscent of times when there was supposedly more empathy and community in politics," she added. ...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
    One would think that Gen Z would be more, I don't know, REBELLIOUS or UNGOVERNABLE if it's really true that they have experienced the following awful realities.
     
    One of life's great mysteries. 
     

    ... a typical Zoomer on the apps is getting rejected by, and rejecting, more prospective partners in a week than a typical married boomer has in their entire life.

    ... Ella, a 20-year-old from Allentown, Pennsylvania, applied to 12 colleges and got rejected from 10. "I had so much hubris and unfounded confidence," she says. "I just thought, well, I'll only want to go to college if I can get into a 'prestigious school.' They ask, 'Why us?' obviously, and I couldn't tell them why besides it's Harvard." In a Substack post she published before her high school graduation, she described how at odds her tenfold rejection was with her belief in simply working hard to succeed. "I thought that I was going to be someone," she wrote.

    ... many Zoomers apply to more jobs in a day than many lucky Boomers have in their lives. ...

    More.

     

    Wednesday, April 9, 2025

    Some have asked, Where did the party of Ronald Reagan go?

     It went to Afghanistan and Iraq and never came back.

    Thursday, February 20, 2025

    Not even ass-kisser Mark Levin can take the Ukraine BS from Trump

     Levin almost never disagrees with Trump. It's very revealing of Mark's priorities, which include the absolute rectitude of George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq.

     

    Mark Levin Defies Trump By Backing Zelensky and Trashing Putin — Bashes ‘Sick’ and ‘Un-American’ Foreign Policy

    ... I’m waiting for the first free election for Vladimir Putin. I mean, this is almost comical in a sick way that Putin is demanding an election. Why is he demanding an election in Ukraine when he doesn’t have free and real elections in his own country? ... I don’t know why there are people that not only oppose Zelensky, but seem to support Putin,” said Levin, attributing said position to a handful of pseudo-intellectuals” pushing “policies that in many ways are un-American in my view, and policies that if they had espoused these policies not that long ago, people would have wondered if they were on the take, or who they’re working for, something like that. Not that they are, but they would wonder.” ...

    Levin sounds like Democrats at the end there, getting uncomfortably close to their charge that Trump has always been on the take from Putin, working for Putin, "something like that" lol.

    Somebody should check the audio though, because, holy smokes, this whopper was in there:

    There is no peace without slavery.


     


     

    Friday, February 14, 2025

    Holy cow, a seventh prosecutor resigns over the renegade DOJ attempt to toss the Eric Adams case

     

    A seventh federal prosecutor resigned Friday over the Department of Justice’s controversial order to dismiss criminal corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams.

    The prosecutor, Hagan Scotten, in a blistering letter to top DOJ official Emil Bove, said “I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool, or enough of a coward, to file your motion” to dismiss the Adams case.

    “But it was never going to be me,” wrote Scotten, who had been the lead prosecutor in Adams’ case for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.

    On Thursday, Scotten’s boss, acting U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon resigned in protest over Bove’s order to toss the case. ... 

    Scotten is a Harvard Law School grad, who clerked for Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts after serving in the U.S. Army in Iraq in the Special Forces. He also served as a clerk to Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh when Roberts’ fellow conservative was sitting on a lower court.

    More.

    The new Attorney General Pam Bondi is really working overtime to accumulate obloquy. 

    Sunday, December 29, 2024

    Donald J. Trump was against the H-1B Visa Program before he was for it lol

    Donald J. Frankenstein is the GOP's version of Boltneck, who was for the use of force in Iraq and Afghanistan before he was against paying for it. 

    Elon Musk has that effect on people lol.

    Don't get the Neuralink from the mad scientist or it could happen to you, too!

     






    Friday, December 6, 2024

    In March 2016 Pete Hegseth was no different from NeverTrumpers like Erick Erickson, Mark Levin, Charlie Kirk, and Ben Shapiro who all now bend the knee


     

     CNN video here from Dec 3rd, in which Hegseth criticizes Trump for being an arm chair warrior who had the temerity to criticize John McCain while avoiding the draft.

    Which is rich coming from Hegseth who was never regular military.

    It's Megyn Kelly interviewing him, too, lol, who has been defending Pete The Warrior and his PTSD for his bad behavior with the women.

    I keep waiting for someone to ask Hegseth how many firefights he was in in the field in Afghanistan. We'd all like to know in this age of stolen valor. We know that's a fact about his time in Iraq, but everyone keeps talking as if that's what he did in Afghanistan when the only evidence I find is that he taught a course there and that his stay was very brief.

    More at Mediaite here.

    Bunch of phony, baloney, plastic banana, good time rock 'n rollas.

    Friday, November 29, 2024

    It's amazing how so-called conservative women will twist themselves into pretzels to defend Pete Hegseth, for example by lowering Brett Kavanaugh to his level

     


     Don’t let the left do to Pete Hegseth what it did to Brett Kavanaugh 

    It’s the Brett Kavanaugh show all over again. ... Was Hegseth also in another relationship at the time [2017]? Maybe. But he’s being nominated for secretary of defense, not for the role of our boyfriend or husband. His personal life issues should stay personal. 

    As Megyn Kelly pointed out, “Having difficulty in one’s personal relationship, especially after having served two tours — which it’s not uncommon for these combat vets to come back and not be able to navigate their love lives all that well — is much different than being a rapist.”

     

    Brett Kavanaugh isn't on his third wife, or his second, and hasn't cheated on his first one, let alone on three and then lied about it by omission. There is no moral equivalence between Pete Hegseth and Brett Kavanaugh whatsoever. 

    Hegseth meanwhile served in combat in Iraq in 2005-6, having married wife number one in 2004. That marriage ended in 2009, reportedly due to his infidelity, and he remarried the very next year in 2010, both of which life-altering events occurred while he was executive director of Vets For Freedom, 2007-2012.

    In 2012 he was an active duty military instructor in Afghanistan, but evidently for not very long.

    In that same year he had started a political action committee called MN PAC, briefly ran for the US Senate from Minnesota starting in February, lost at the Republican Convention in May, and also became CEO of Concerned Veterans for America that year, a job he held until 2015, having become a Fox News contributor the previous year.

    It is laughable to suggest that this biography matches a man suffering from the post-traumatic stress of two tours of duty in the Middle East. He looks more like an ambitious climber trying to make the most he can out of what little he's got.



     

    Sunday, November 24, 2024

    Iraq combat vets wondered why National Guard member Pete Hegseth showed up in Iraq in 2005 leading a platoon

     “I showed up in the 101st Airborne Division, in one of the most storied units in our nation’s history, with a bunch of combat vets who’d already done a tour in Iraq and they looked at me like, ‘Who the hell is this guy?’” Hegseth said in a 2021 interview on “The Will Cain Show” podcast.

    One former officer who served with Hegseth said he was surprised to see a National Guard member taking on such a role. He surmised that Hegseth probably wanted to run for office someday and thought a combat tour could help, the former officer said. ...

    The former Army officer who served with Hegseth in Iraq said he believes he has latched on to “populist scenarios” in a quest for personal gain. When news of Hegseth’s potential nomination emerged, old acquaintances from those days got back in touch with one another, the former officer said.

    One text he received especially stood out. All it said: “WTF?”

    More.

    Monday, August 12, 2024

    Tim Walz implies he stood at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan as a member of the national guard

     He didn't. He was in Congress when he did that, on January 9, 2008:

    WALZ RETURNS FROM OVERSEAS TRIP INVESTIGATING MILITARY HEALTHCARE.

    It's all so vivid in his mind on 9/11/2021 right? So vivid he puts Bagram in Iraq.

    The period between the words "national guard. I stood" is 2005-2008.

    His guard service ended in 2005. The Middle East trip was in January 2008.