Friday, August 7, 2026

Middle East outbound oil flows through both Straits are back down in the range of 6 million barrels per day if Bab-el-Mandeb is now indeed a return to the pre-war level

 It appears that there is nothing extra coming out of the Red Sea anymore, diverted by Saudi Arabia west to Yanbu.

UAE moved 0.95 mbpd through Hormuz in July 2026, but 2.28 mbpd out of Fujairah which doesn't go through Hormuz, which would be in addition to the now ~6 million through Hormuz, yielding 8.28 mbpd approximately, as we speak.

That's 62% off the pre-war level of ~22 mbpd out of the Middle East.

Trump not vanquishing the Houthis in 2025 is America's chickens comin' home to roost.