Current GDP supports SPX at mean value 2550

 31.49007 x 81

Trump real GDP 2017-2025 underperforms 1929-1984, which includes The Great Depression, by 30.4%

 GDPCA CAGR

1929-1984: 3.569%

2017-2025: 2.483% 

GDP in 2025 would be double what it is had economic growth continued after 1984 at the 1929-1984 compound annual rate of 6.869%

 Nominal GDP in 2025 would be $61.524 trillion instead of $30.778 trillion had economic growth continued at the 55-year 1929-1984 compound annual rate of 6.869%.

That's the difference the 26% reduction in the growth rate to 5.079% has made in the 41 years since 1984.

The compound annual growth rate since the Trump tax reform from 2017 has been slightly, but not a lot, better at 5.795% on an annual basis. Measured 4Q on 4Q over the 8 years the compound annual rate is a little better still at 5.814%. 

Meanwhile the seasonally adjusted annual rate of real GDP growth fell from 4.4% in 3Q2025 to 1.4% in 4Q2025 in today's report: 

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP rose just 1.4%, badly missing estimate; inflation firms at 3%

American leadership continues to avoid the elephant in the living room of economic growth.

1984 marked the turn, contrary to Ronald Reagan, when America's best days truly were behind her, and economic growth then hit the big brick wall after 2007 and nothing anyone has done has fixed it.

In the 78 years to 2007 nominal GDP (GDPA) grew at a compound annual rate of 6.525%, but only at 4.281% in the 18 years since then.

The corresponding real values are 3.448%, and . . . just 1.982%.

Yes, that's right. Real GDP (GDPCA) has been growing at sub-2% since 2007. 

Politicians who talk up economic growth aspire to better days but do not deliver.

The first step to authentic economic recovery means admitting that you have a problem. 

 

Nancy Pelosi's Speakerships were a double-whammy of obscene spending unprecedented in the post-war which never delivered on the economic growth

The double whammy burger you order never looks as good as the picture.

 

Why everything sucks since the Great Recession: Real GDP in the 18 years since 2007 has been growing at a compound annual rate of just 2.004%

 The compound annual growth rate before that, for the 60 years from 1947 to 2007, was 3.469%.

We're doing 42% worse.

It's uncanny.

 

 

We're already close to the first: As of Feb 2026, the average interest rate on the U.S. National Debt is 3.4% while the compound annual rate of nominal GDP growth from 3Q2007 to 3Q2025 is only 4.3%

 One path to U.S. fiscal disaster is most alarming — and most likely

... An Everest of debt is an incentive for an inflation crisis to reduce the value of existing debt by paying lenders with debased dollars. But inflation would become baked into the expectations of investors, who would demand higher interest rates. Then R>G would bite: When interest rates paid on debt exceed the rate of economic growth, a crisis intensifies as rising interest rates depress economic growth. ... The most probable, and most ominous, outcome would be a gradual crisis. ... Nothing unsettles a middle-class nation more rapidly than inflation, a component of all of these crises. ...

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says economic activity has been solid lol

 10-year Treasury yield rises after Fed keeps rates steady, notes ‘solid’ economy

... “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization,” the post-meeting statement said. “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” ... 

“I think, and many of my colleagues think, it’s hard to look at the incoming data and say the policy is significantly restrictive at this time,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference. ...

The economy should be three times the size it is, $90.4 trillion in GDP instead of $31.1 trillion.

 

 

$59.31753 trillion to be exact

 

Today's GDP report indicates Trump GDP since 2017 is undershooting post-war performance up to Reagan 3Q1984 by 25%

 GDP since Reagan 3Q1984 (41 years) through the Trump present moment has grown at a compound annual rate 35% lower than for 3Q1947-3Q1984 (37 years): 5.076% vs. 7.847%.

Trump GDP CAGR since 3Q2017 (8 years): 5.878% (25% lower than the post-war to 3Q1984).

$4.08425 trillion GDP after 41-years at a compound annual growth rate of 7.847% would be $90.41555 trillion in 3Q2025 instead of $31.09802 trillion, 2.90 times more.

That's why you feel poorer. 

Reagan didn't make America great again, and neither has Trump.