Nominal GDP in 2025 would be $61.524 trillion instead of $30.778 trillion had economic growth continued at the 55-year 1929-1984 compound annual rate of 6.869%.
That's the difference the 26% reduction in the growth rate to 5.079% has made in the 41 years since 1984.
The compound annual growth rate since the Trump tax reform from 2017 has been slightly, but not a lot, better at 5.795% on an annual basis. Measured 4Q on 4Q over the 8 years the compound annual rate is a little better still at 5.814%.
Meanwhile the seasonally adjusted annual rate of real GDP growth fell from 4.4% in 3Q2025 to 1.4% in 4Q2025 in today's report:
American leadership continues to avoid the elephant in the living room of economic growth.
1984 marked the turn, contrary to Ronald Reagan, when America's best days truly were behind her, and economic growth then hit the big brick wall after 2007 and nothing anyone has done has fixed it.
In the 78 years to 2007 nominal GDP (GDPA) grew at a compound annual rate of 6.525%, but only at 4.281% in the 18 years since then.
The corresponding real values are 3.448%, and . . . just 1.982%.
Yes, that's right. Real GDP (GDPCA) has been growing at sub-2% since 2007.
Politicians who talk up economic growth aspire to better days but do not deliver.
The first step to authentic economic recovery means admitting that you have a problem.
