Daily US deaths from COVID-19
fell from 27,279 on 4/20 to 20,951 on 5/19, or 23.2% under circumstances of stay-at-home orders in many US states.
The following projection assumes, incorrectly but optimistically, that those orders would remain in place indefinitely, or at least the behaviors from them, and that case growth would continue to fall monthly at the same rate.
Opening up the country as we are about to will eventually stop the decline trend and increase case counts and therefore death totals, but that's a problem for another day.
Assume that by 6/19 cases per day would fall to 16,090
by 7/19 to 12,357
by 8/19 to 9,490
by 9/19 to 7,288
by 10/19 to 5,597
Assume a simple average daily case addition per period of 18,520.5
14.223.5
10,923.5
8,389
6,442.5
each @30 days
Total cases added by 11/19: 1,754,970 @ 6% case fatality rate = +105,298 deaths
plus 1.09 million existing cases @ 6% case fatality rate = +65,400 deaths
plus already existing deaths per Johns Hopkins = +92,149 deaths
Total deaths actual and baked in the cake by 11/19 = 262,847
Lots of variables could change the outcome, including improved treatment techniques in ICUs, ramped up use of new drugs like remdesivir, earlier diagnosis of patients through testing, earlier quarantining of the infected, stepped up contact tracing, more mask wearing in public, more social distancing, etc. The country seems quite divided about some of these, however, and many might throw caution to the wind while others do not. Much will depend on the character of local communities. In 1918 St. Louis turned out much differently than Philadelphia.
So as of right now, all things being equal, the much
ridiculed original IHME estimate of 240,000 deaths looks more and more plausible with each passing day, even if the "by when" date isn't early August anymore.
