18 things which set new price records on an average basis in 1Q2025: beef, beef, and more beef, ice cream, sugar, coffee, OJ, chicken, American cheese, beer, wine, eggs, electricity

 

sirloin

chuck roast

beef roasts

beef steaks

ground beef

ice cream

sugar

coffee

orange juice

chicken

ground chuck

round steak

round roast

American cheese

beer

wine

electricity

eggs

High unemployment, high inflation, and high interest rates 6% or higher all at the same time plagued the country for six years 1975-1982, but we survived

 There were six years when all three, the unemployment rate, headline inflation, and 10-year US Treasury yield, were at 6% or higher on an average basis at the same time:

1975: 8.5%  9.14%  7.99%

1977: 7.1%  6.46%  7.42%

1978: 6.1%  7.62%  8.41%

1980: 7.2%  13.5%  11.43%

1981: 7.6%  10.37%  13.92%

1982: 9.7%  6.15%  13.01%.

 

In March 2025 unemployment was 4.2%, headline inflation was 2.4%, and the 10Y yielded 4.28%.

The current data set is no compelling case for reducing interest rates.  If Trump had confidence in his tariff regime, he wouldn't be clamoring for further reductions.

 

Ten foods making new all time high average prices in March 2025 per FRED Economic Data

Round roast $7.557 per pound

Round steak $8.554

Ground chuck $5.854

Ground beef 100% $5.79

Ground beef all $6.137

Beef steaks all $10.98

Eggs $6.227 per dozen

Coffee $7.385 per pound

White sugar $1.014

Beer $1.821 per pint

 

They're calling the 10Y at 4.5% the moron premium because everyone hates Trump and his tariffs, but I don't remember it being called the 5% dotard premium under Joe Biden

People need to get a grip.

Blaming hapless Liz Truss' two-months as PM in September and October 2022 for the UK's high interest rates pretends that the Bank of England didn't raise interest rates in response to inflation same as the US Federal Reserve Bank.

This trashy headline belongs in The Daily Star, not the UK Telegraph. No wonder they're trying to sell you a 1-year subscription for only 29 pounds.

 

 

Week over week US Treasury yields in the aggregate popped 5.8% on net to an average 4.335% after declining for months from 4.5 to 4.0 and everybody's freaking out like this hasn't happened, what, six times now in the current era

Most of the pissing and moaning is from investors who pulled the bond trigger too soon, plowed into fixed income, and got burned badly because interest rates reasserted themselves.

The press this weekend is instead full of apocalyptic language about the Treasury market and the implications for America on a grand scale. It's complete rot and I'm ignoring it. It's all designed to pressure the Fed to lower their rate again.

The last time the Fed embarked on rate cuts is instructive. It was late September 2024. The average of the aggregate of the curve had fallen to just north of 4. Inflation rates seemed to be trending down. So the Fed cut, and voila! Treasury rates hilariously shot upward!

The burn was real.  

$TLT investors, who were down 4.76% in 2021, 31.41% in 2022, up 2.96% in 2023, went down again, 7.84% in 2024 as a result. Ouch.

They are back, itching again for a policy reversal like they have a flea infestation, so bad they are bleeding.

As things stand year to date, long term investment grade investors in VWESX, for example, are down 1.43%. It wasn't supposed to be this way, not again.

So everyone hates the bond vigilantes with the heat of 1,000 suns, and urges more imprudence.

Meanwhile in "cash" you go on making 4.3% or so, and in gold you have made a killing, while stocks reel under Trump's stupid tariff shotgun blasts which are wounding everyone in the field, including himself.

If the Fed had done a proper job against inflation by jacking up the Fed Funds Rate to meaningfully combat the core pce inflation rate of its average 5.35% in 2022 instead of going only where it did, which was 1.69% on an average basis, maybe we wouldn't still have this lingering inflation for the bond vigilantes to demand payment against. Core pce inflation hasn't moved materially off 2.8% in a year now, still much too high.

The bond market is "she who must be obeyed". She doesn't tell you everything you need to know, but she does tell you the most important thing.

But what the hell do I know. I'm just some punk keyboard warrior blogging in his underwear in the basement to the money men. So yippee-ki-yay, you earned it. Especially you Donald Trump, you complete ignoramus.

 

Liars all over Elon Musk's X kept saying Trump brought egg prices down, but in March 2025 they were more expensive than ever on an average basis: $6.227 per dozen

Sam's Club, when it has eggs in stock, is charging in the mid to high 4s per dozen.

 

The average price of gasoline in the United States remains Obama-like in March 2025

 

The average price of piped utility gas in the United States is again knocking on the door of nosebleed levels in March 2025

 

The average price of electricity in the United States hit a new record high of 18.1 cents in March 2025

 

Core wholesale prices rose 3.3% year over year in March 2025, the seventh consecutive month above 3%

 

Core cpi inflation finally comes down under 3% yoy in Mar 2025, seasonally adjusted or not, to 2.8%, finally lower than Apr 2021 for the first time in four years

 ... Food prices climbed 0.4% on the month. Egg prices rose another 5.9% and were up 60.4% from a year ago. Moreover, shelter prices, among the most stubborn components of inflation, increased just 0.2% in March and were up 4% on a 12-month basis, the smallest gain since November 2021. ...

More.

The expectation was for core at 3%.

The people didn't vote for relief later, they've endured horrible inflation since 2021 and expected Trump to fix it, not make it worse

Asking the people to make more sacrifices, to get even poorer through tariff-induced higher prices, all for the sake of The Party und Der Führer is really . . . rich.

Trump's Tough-Love Tariffs: Pain Now, Prosperity Later

Michael Busler, Blaze Media

 

It's always prosperity later. It's always spending cuts later.

 

But every damn day is time for tax cuts for the rich.

Core pce inflation in February 2025 was 2.8% year over year, 75% higher than the 1.6% average 2017-2020

 The last eleven months have seen the year over year measure fluctuating between 2.88% and 2.63%.

Zero progress since April 2024, when the measure rounded to 2.9%, same as in December. 

Yeah, but your leaders wear Tiffany and Rolex, that's what counts.

 

 

The inflation figures in this story, as usual, are based on seasonally adjusted measures

 

Wholesale price measure was flat in February, compared with expected increase

 

... no gain for the month after jumping an upwardly revised 0.6% in January, seasonally adjusted figures showed. ...

It's the same story with core wholesale prices for January 2025, not seasonally adjusted, also revised upward today one month later

 The monthly rise in core wholesale prices in January 2025 of 0.5% was revised up to 0.7% today, and the year over year increase was revised up to 3.8% from 3.6%.

Inflation in January 2025 was worse than previously reported, and probably was in February too as reported today, but we'll have to see, as long, anyway, as Ludwig doesn't manage to blow us all up in the meantime.

 

Wholesale prices not seasonally adjusted rose 3.7% year over year in January 2025, not the 3.5% reported last month

 The month over month change in wholesale prices was also revised up today, from 0.7% for January to 0.9%.

 

In February 2025 the average cost of electricity is 31.6% higher than it was 2016-2020

 The average price per kWhr was $0.136 for the five years 2016-2020.

 

 

In February 2025 piped utility gas to heat your home, heat your water, and cook with costs 55.7% more than it did on average 2016-2020

 The average price 2016-2020 was $1.0174 per therm.

 

 

In February 2025 gasoline costs 34.8% more than the average 2016-2020

The average price 2016-2020 was $2.419/gallon.

 

Beef, breakfast, and bliss just went up again: A dozen basic foods posting new all time high average prices in February 2025 according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

Choice chuck roast $8.104/lb

Ground chuck $5.744

All uncooked ground beef $5.96

All uncooked beef roasts $7.995

Round roast $7.49

Round steak $8.485

 

Eggs $5.897/dozen

Frozen orange juice $4.492/12oz

Coffee $7.246

White Sugar $1.011

 

Table wine $14.087/liter

Beer $1.819/pint