The inflation figures in this story, as usual, are based on seasonally adjusted measures

 

Wholesale price measure was flat in February, compared with expected increase

 

... no gain for the month after jumping an upwardly revised 0.6% in January, seasonally adjusted figures showed. ...

It's the same story with core wholesale prices for January 2025, not seasonally adjusted, also revised upward today one month later

 The monthly rise in core wholesale prices in January 2025 of 0.5% was revised up to 0.7% today, and the year over year increase was revised up to 3.8% from 3.6%.

Inflation in January 2025 was worse than previously reported, and probably was in February too as reported today, but we'll have to see, as long, anyway, as Ludwig doesn't manage to blow us all up in the meantime.

 

Wholesale prices not seasonally adjusted rose 3.7% year over year in January 2025, not the 3.5% reported last month

 The month over month change in wholesale prices was also revised up today, from 0.7% for January to 0.9%.

 

In February 2025 the average cost of electricity is 31.6% higher than it was 2016-2020

 The average price per kWhr was $0.136 for the five years 2016-2020.

 

 

In February 2025 piped utility gas to heat your home, heat your water, and cook with costs 55.7% more than it did on average 2016-2020

 The average price 2016-2020 was $1.0174 per therm.

 

 

In February 2025 gasoline costs 34.8% more than the average 2016-2020

The average price 2016-2020 was $2.419/gallon.

 

Beef, breakfast, and bliss just went up again: A dozen basic foods posting new all time high average prices in February 2025 according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

Choice chuck roast $8.104/lb

Ground chuck $5.744

All uncooked ground beef $5.96

All uncooked beef roasts $7.995

Round roast $7.49

Round steak $8.485

 

Eggs $5.897/dozen

Frozen orange juice $4.492/12oz

Coffee $7.246

White Sugar $1.011

 

Table wine $14.087/liter

Beer $1.819/pint

 

 

Core cpi inflation was 3.117% year over year in February 2025, still 58.6% worse than the average 2017-2020

 We've been stuck in this range for 8 months.

The worst inflation in decades first fell to 3.1% in July 2024. 

We're still there.

 

 

The purchasing power of the US dollar fell again in February 2025: The dollar now buys 26.5% less than it did 10 years ago

The monthly decline in February was another -0.63%.

The year over year decline in February was -2.795%.

That's your headline inflation number today.

 

 

 

 

Trump Treasury Secretary says "Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream" after imposing tariffs which will make them more expensive

They think you are stupid.

 

 

 

Core pce inflation in January 2025 was 2.6% year over year, a full point higher than the 1.6% average 2017-2020, or 62.5% worse

The last 10 months have seen the year over year measure fluctuating between 2.88% and 2.63%.

 

Thirteen paragraphs in we learn that last month's wholesale price headline was, well, total fiction

Which means that this headline is what then?

Producer prices report points to softer Fed inflation measure than feared:

A gauge of wholesale prices rose more than expected in January ... Over the past year, the all-items PPI increased 3.5%, well ahead of the central bank’s objective. ...

“Wholesale price growth came in slightly higher than expected for January, and the read for December was adjusted upward,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance site NerdWallet. “In other words, inflation at the producer level remains high, and one concern is that this inflation could ultimately be passed along to consumers.”

Revisions to the December numbers also complicated the inflation picture, with the gain now put at 0.5%, compared with the 0.2% increase previously reported.

Last month's headline: Inflation watch: Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in December, less than expected.

As usual, the truth is under the hood of the polished headline, or maybe next month's polished headline.

 

Nothing looks soft to me in the measures shown below, which are the not-seasonally-adjusted ones.

Overall producer prices are up  0.7% in Jan 2025, and 3.5% year over year. Core producer prices are up 0.5% in Jan 2025, and 3.6% year over year. At least until next month.

 

 

 

In Jan 2025 the average price of utility natural gas is 49% more than the 2017-2020 average

 The average price of utility natural gas was $1.04 per therm 2017-2020.

In Jan 2025 it costs $1.55, 49% more.

Since about 10% of natural gas production is diverted to LNG export for big profits, most of the increase is related to diversion of natural gas from heating to electricity production because of the lunatic policy of retiring massive amounts of coal electric generation capacity.

It makes heating your home much more expensive, and keeping the lights on much more expensive at the same time.

Thanks for nothing, green energy assholes. It's 22 degrees F and snowing in Grand Rapids, MI.

New all time high for the average price of electricity in the United States: $0.179/kWhr January 2025

 

Nine basic foods posting new all time high average prices in January 2025 according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

Round steak $8.28/lb

Eggs             $4.953/doz

Frozen OJ    $4.48/12oz.

Coffee          $7.019/lb

Sugar            $1.011/lb

Ice Cream     $6.459/half gallon

Steaks, all     $10.905/lb

Table wine    $14.035/liter

Beer              $1.813/pint

Everybody's favorite food inflation indicator, eggs, made another new all-time record high average price in January 2025: $4.953/dozen

 Sorting for the 100 largest flocks of egg-layers affected by H5N1 bird flu since 2022 which have had to be destroyed, as of this morning I count in excess of 21 million chickens destroyed to stop the spread so far in 2025 alone.

 

At 3.258% in Jan 2025, the rate of core cpi inflation year over year is still 65.8% worse than the annual average 2017-2020

 

At 3.258% in Jan 2025, the rate of core cpi inflation year over year is still 65.8% worse than the annual average 2017-2020.

 

The rate has been going sideways since Jul 2024, seven months.

 

The Fed has failed, the Congress has failed, and the Executive has failed. They all suck at their jobs, which is to say they're doing great! They're bloodsuckers after all.

 

All figures are the not-seasonally-adjusted figures.

 

The 2017-2020 average was 1.965%.

 

The 2024 average was 3.4%.

 

The 2021-2024 average was 4.48%.

 

The percent change in Jan 2025 was +0.56986%, which since Jan 2021 is the third worst Jan out of four. 

 

 

The cash consumer will pay the cost of the Trump-Musk penny-elimination gambit: Is it the harbinger of a coming cashless tyranny?

"The Amish have been galvanised to head to the polls and turn the battle ground red."

 

The little guy voted for Trump, so naturally Trump is going to screw the little guy, the Amish in particular.

And not mentioned in the story below is the deep resistance to eliminating cash among the denizens of America's survivalist communities. They see this as a control issue, and a potential threat to freedom because you control the cash in your pocket, but not the digital currency in your account. Cross the authorities somehow, and your account can be wiped out with a keystroke.

We already have experienced lawful gun owners and gun businesses being de-banked over gun ownership, among other culture war issues contested by liberal elites using economic coercion.

Meanwhile The UniParty has devalued the 1913 dollar to three cents. If you've only got one, eliminating the penny means you've now got bupkis.

How does the observation go? It's always the Republicans who actually advance the liberalism which the people resist when the Democrats are in control.

Every. Damn. Time.

 

To the extent rounding up occurs more frequently than rounding down, cash consumers would be paying the price for the cost efficiency Trump and Musk are seeking, said Ajay Patel, a professor of finance at Wake Forest University School of Business. ...

. . . people at the bottom of the economic ladder will probably feel the penny pinch the most.

“The individuals paying for this benefit will be those who purchase products and services using cash and will continue to do so going forward because they are either unbanked or unable to access debit or credit cards or a digital wallet,” Patel said. ...

Laura Maike, of Burton, Ohio, notes that the Amish will feel the pinch right now.

“Here in Northeast Ohio’s Amish country, we still use pennies regularly,” Maike said of her area, which includes thousands of generally cash-using Amish. “How would this work for cash-only transactions? It would be impossible to give exact change as the purchaser or seller.”

More.

 

Mad King Ludwig bans the penny

 

Congress has the exclusive power to coin money and regulate its value, not the president, according to the US Constitution.

But since all coin and currency is worthless, thanks to Congress, does it really matter anymore?

The thieving Roman emperors infamously diluted the value of coinage from time to time by reducing the amount of gold and silver contained in the coins. 

Since we had real money once upon a time, our founders didn't want one man potentially messing with the money, so they put Congress in charge, because they really did think a president could become a tyrant.

But our perfect, holy founders who supposedly thought of everything never anticipated that the Congress itself would become the thieving bastards, the naifs.

The 1913 dollar is now worth three measly cents, but even that Mad King Ludwig will now take away.

If we were a free people, we wouldn't put up with this.

The principle remains, even if the circumstances have changed.

 Trump takes aim at ‘wasteful’ government spending by ordering end to penny production

But at least one analyst on Wall Street expects that the penny’s days are numbered. TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg said the halt will [be] likely to pass judicial review, leading to a shortage in the coin.

“We believe this order would survive judicial review, which is why this is likely to occur,” Seiberg wrote on Monday. “We worry about this leading to a shortage of pennies, which could force merchants to pay banks more for coins. It also adds legal risk for merchants and banks. That could create the crisis needed to force Congress to act.”

 

Trump's tariff gambit has little to do with fentanyl but everything to do with increasing revenues on the backs of consumers so that he can pass his temporary tax cut package and not increase deficits

 It's complete madness. It's Donald Trump: "Everything will cost more but I'm cutting your taxes!"

 Wolfgang Munchau, here:

Economically, his tariff war will act like a tax on US consumers. The increased costs are inevitably borne by the consumers. But, as a form of rebalancing, it will raise a lot of revenue for the US treasury and together with the shrinking of the federal government, may well end up lowering the budget deficit and strengthening the US current account balance. Of course, there will be repercussions that could push in the other direction: the dollar might rise; the world might plunge into recession. But the truth is we have no experience of what happens when the largest economy on earth, with the dominating global reserve currency, imposes massive tariffs on its trading partners.

Munchau thinks Trump will win his tariff war. I do not. Munchau overestimates Trump's political support at home, and underestimates the fickleness of the US electorate. Continued inflation will throw sand into the gears of this gambit and sow discontent.

Control of the US House is everything, and Trump barely has it. He has two years and is already blowing it.