Everyday starts with a cup of coffee, which is up 35% since Trump was elected

It's a BFD with me.

 

37% of 46 average food prices I track through FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis made new all-time average high prices for the first half of 2026

More than half of the 17 offenders are beef products.

In addition to the 9 beef products, also appearing are beer, wine, chocolate chip cookies, lettuce, tomatoes, white rice, coffee, and orange juice. 

Most of the 46 foods tracked are priced near, if not at, their all-time highs in 1H2026, but inflation over time matters when evaluating what's what.

Fresh whole chicken, for example, remains a good value compared with beef.

100% ground beef purchased in the summer of 1984 for $1.31 per pound should cost about $4.22 per pound today, but in reality is about $6.78 on an average basis. You are paying a premium of 61% over inflation when you eat hamburger today.

One whole chicken, however, purchased at an average price of 66-cents per pound in the summer of 1980 should cost about $2.67 per pound today adjusted for inflation, but is only about $2.04. A year ago it was $2.06.

Smart shoppers choose the fricken chicken. 

 

 

Go ahead, make my day

Clock’s ticking: House set to vote on making daylight saving time permanent

Italian coffee company Lavazza to introduce proprietary machine Tabli to brew its proprietary entirely natural compressed coffee tablets which require no recycling like K-cups do

 Italian coffee giant Lavazza launches single-serve tablets to make espresso in the U.S.

... Lavazza will officially launch Tablì in the U.S. in August. A $99.99 bundle that includes the machine, a 60-count variety pack of tabs and a milk frother is available now to pre-order on the company’s website. ... 

There was no "pre-order" tab on the U.S. website.

The question is, Will the coffee from a tablet be any good?

And, Do you want to be hostage to the company for future supply?

Personally, I prefer Kimbo to Lavazza, but I will drink Lavazza. 

My advice is to buy a moka pot and a grinder instead, and buy the beans or ground coffee of your choosing.

You will have the coffee you want when you want it, and if you never put the moka pot in the dishwasher it will last you a lifetime.

I have used several different sizes in both aluminum and stainless steel since the 1990s and have never gone back to percolators, pour-overs, French presses, drip machines, steam or pump espresso makers, et cetera. And I keep several different brands and styles of coffee going all the time.

Plus, the moka pots will work over a flame in a power outage, take up no counter space, and can travel with you at leisure or in an emergency.

And the look is . . . iconic. 

 

 

Gold and silver are still up 5+% year to date

 SPX +10.52% ytd

WTI +53.11% ytd

 

Meanwhile in April: 

Hamburger +18.9% yoy

Coffee +29.0% yoy

Unleaded regular gasoline +28.0% yoy

Electricity +7.2% yoy

Natural gas +3.1% yoy

[Trump 9/21/2024: "We will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down . . . within 12 months . . ."] 

Milk +1.5% yoy

Whole Chicken -1.6% yoy 

Eggs -56.1% yoy

Tomatoes +50.0% yoy

 

And: 

30-year mortgage average monthly, above 6% since August 2022

Full time jobs above 50% of population just 6 of the last 25 quarters, all under Joe Biden

 

Adjusted for consumer price index inflation since October 2019, a traditional American breakfast should cost you 29.4% more in April 2026, instead it's 54.9% more!

29.4% more is bad enough, right? 

The ingredients for a traditional American breakfast in April 2026, adjusted for consumer price index inflation since October 2019, should cost $29.91.

Instead they cost $35.79, $23.11 plus 54.9%.

Menu: Bacon and eggs, whole wheat toast with butter, coffee with milk and sugar, and a glass of orange juice.

The Biden high for all this was $33.20 in January 2023.

The all-time high to date was in March 2025 under Trump at $37.67.

The April 2026 Trump price is still 7.8% higher than the Biden high three-plus years ago.

  

Trump was useless when we needed him

 Trump: NATO Was Useless When We Needed Them, But Actually We Didn't Need Them

 

My morning coffee, my Sunday hamburger, my Italian tomatoes, pasta and olive oil, and now even my salad

I coulda mentioned salad the other day, but I didn't.

The average price made a new record high in 1Q2026. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why BLTs and salad just got more expensive — tariffs, war send tomato prices soaring

This story is about fresh tomatoes, not salad, and it is interesting, but the average price of tomatoes in 1Q2026 still hasn't surpassed 1Q2016.

Adjusted for inflation since 1Q1980, tomatoes could cost $2.64 per pound, but they were only $1.98 in 1Q.

As the story says, canned tomatoes are much cheaper. I make my sauce from stewed whole plum tomatoes from a can, preferably Italian, preferably San Marzano or Parma, but there are many acceptable American brands to choose from. 

And for what, Iran's hegemony over the Persian Gulf?

 Gen. Caine: More Than 50,000 U.S. Troops Flew 10,000 Missions Over Iran In 39 Days, Drank 950,000 Gallons Of Coffee

New high prices for coffee and ground chuck

 

It could be worse: If the average price of coffee in this chart had kept up with inflation since Jan 1980, the average price in Jan 2026 would be $13.42 instead of $9.37

 Soaring coffee prices rewrite daily routines...

 ... Coffee prices in the U.S. were up 18.3% in January from a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released on Friday. Over five years, the government reported, coffee prices rose 47%. ...

 

The cost of a traditional American breakfast in Jan 2026 is up 55.3% since Jan 2020

 Menu:

 

Coffee with milk

Bacon and eggs

Toast with butter

Orange juice

 

 

 

On the eve of the election Trump promised cheaper grocery prices, but breakfast costs nearly 8% more in Jan 2026 than it did then

 

A basket of bacon and eggs, whole wheat bread and butter, coffee and whole milk, and orange juice cost on average $32.47 in the United States in 3Q2024. Stretched out over a week, your breakfast cost you $4.64 a day.

That same basket in Jan 2026 is now $35.00 on average, up $2.53 or 7.8%.

Stretched out over a week breakfast now costs $5.00 a day.

Meanwhile OJ hit a new high, and despite removing some coffee-related tariffs, coffee hit a new record high price in Jan 2026, too.

 

 

Trump reduced tariffs on coffee in early November, but it made a new record high average price in November 2025 anyway lol

 October 2025 is missing.

Trump's base is not happy: Strong disapproval of Trump hits new high 46% in Rasmussen Reports Poll, strong approval hits new low 27% for a second day

Trump's total disapproval score remains at a record high 55% for a second day.

His strong approval score is now a record low 27%, lower than his April 9th tariff low of 29%, his only sub-30 score until the last two weeks.

Trump has had a string of eleven sub-30 strong approval scores since November 11th.

Trump kicked off the period on November 11th stating that we needed H-1B workers because we didn't have enough talent in America. The longest federal government shutdown in history ended on Wednesday the 12th. Around the 15th he reversed his tariffs on coffee and other food items which had contributed to their record high prices in the first place. The same day brought the news that he had also stabbed Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia in the back over her criticism of the GOP's refusal to extend the Obamacare premium tax credits. The Epstein files saga came to a head on the 18th requiring their release, but will we ever see them? TikTok was supposed to be sold or shut down by act of Congress, too, and it has not been. On the 19th Trump was kissing the ass of the Saudi killer of Khashoggi, MBS, in the Oval Office. On the 20th Trump's secret 28-point plan with Russia to carve up Ukraine came to light. On the 22nd Democrats went on camera talking darkly about illegal orders being given to the military in the Caribbean. A National Guard soldier was executed on the streets of DC on the 26th by an Afghan refugee let into America by Biden but given residency by Trump. By the 29th we learned that survivors of a Trump drug boat attack in the Caribbean on September 2 were executed in a subsequent strike by the US military, which they obviously hoped no one would ever find out about. They spent the whole time since making up shit about this being a war justifying military engagement when everyone knows it's not a war and killing people for running drugs in the first place is wrong, otherwise the job we give the Coast Guard to do year in and year out has been simply a pointless exercise.

Trump's base is not happy. Pick your reason(s). 

 

 

Trump cuts food prices by slashing tariffs which he increased in the first place, but apparently not on Italian products like pasta, olive oil, and tomatoes

 

Trump cuts tariffs on goods like coffee, bananas and beef in bid to slash consumer prices

  

Trump tariffs are helping drive U.S. beef prices to new highs

 

 

Prices of 20 food items posted new all time highs on a quarterly average basis under Donald Trump in 3Q2025

 The 20 foods shown making new all time highs represent 43% of the 46 foods I have been tracking in the FRED database at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Prices are per pound unless otherwise noted.

Beef Products:

Round Roast $8.182

All Uncooked Roasts 8.72 

Choice Chuck Roast 8.839

Round Steak 9.04

All Uncooked Steaks 12.12

Choice Sirloin Steak 14.003

Ground Chuck 6.43

100% Ground Beef 6.298

All Uncooked Ground 6.593

 

Other Meats:

 

Whole Chicken 2.072

Pork 3.716

 

Dairy Products:

 

Ice Cream 6.425/half gallon

Cheddar Cheese 6.071

 

Other Foods:

 

Orange Juice 4.682/12oz. frozen

Coffee 8.808 

Sugar 1.043 (two quarters in a row)

Bananas 0.664

Potato Chips 6.84

Chocolate Chip Cookies 5.179

Beer 1.832/pint 

Sugar for your coffee used to average 62 cents per pound under Trump I, under Trump II it's $1.04 in September 2025, 68% more

 

Can you afford even to wake up to Trump?

 Coffee hits new all time high in September 2025 of $9.14 per pound, 111% higher than it used to be.

Coffee averaged $4.33 per pound under Trump I. 

 

 

Frozen orange juice concentrate, coffee, bananas, and chocolate chip cookies also made new record high average prices in July 2025

 

Frozen orange juice concentrate $4.641/12oz

Coffee $8.414/lb

Bananas $0.657

Chocolate Chip cookies $5.264

 

Even though bananas and chocolate chip cookies made new highs, they are good values adjusted for inflation since 1980. Bananas are 49% lower than they should be, and the cookies are 12% lower. Most US bananas come from Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Honduras.

Coffee is running 3.9% ahead of its inflation adjusted price from July 1984, and OJ is running 3.4% ahead of its inflation adjusted price since July 1980.

All nearly fifty food items I track are still near their all time highs. 

We've had no fewer than seven spikes of serious food inflation running ahead of core inflation just since the year 2000.

Agricultural export prices also have soared since then. What a coincidence.