Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz would be normal if they were more like 70 per day total, in and out. This would be out of ~138 total transits, which is the normal historical average including also cargo/bulk/etc. vessels as stated in the latest JMIC Update 061.
We are nowhere close to that after Trump's so-called peace deal with Iran.
People who think the world isn't still headed to an oil supply crisis don't know what they're talking about.
SoH E: 2.6/day; 4.3/day June 18-20 (lol get real)
BAM SE: 7.7/day
SoH tanker transits 1.4/day, SoH E 0.9/day
BAM tanker transits 17.0/day, BAM SE 7.1/day
SoH E: 0.7/day
BAM SE: 8.4/day
SoH E: 0.7/day
BAM SE: 8.1/day
SoH E: 1.1/day
BAM SE: 8.7/day
SoH E: 1.1/day
BAM SE: 7.9/day
SoH E: 1.0/day
BAM SE: 7.7/day
Iran’s threats against this Red Sea choke point are a big vulnerability for the oil market
... Oil and product exports through the Bab el-Mandeb nearly doubled to 7.2 million barrels per day in April compared with 3.9 million bpd in February before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to data provided by Kpler.
The interactive chart by Kpler in the story is a shipwreck.
The data is in millions of barrels per day passing through, as explained in the story. Unfortunately you don't see "million" anywhere in the chart.
What you see is 5.2B, 7.7B, 2.9B, etc., which could easily be misinterpreted as either "barrels" or "billion".
The proper designation should be MMb/d or perhaps MMB/D in the chart, but maybe just leave that out entirely next time because it's already too busy and just put "million" in the subtitle before "barrels" and leave it 5.2, 7.7, 2.9, etc. in the chart.
SoH E: 0.4/day
BAM SE: 7.3/day
SoH E: 0.9/day
BAM SE: 7.3/day
U.S. intercepts Iran missiles targeting American forces in Kuwait: CENTCOM
Treasury yields rise after Iran reportedly stops communication with U.S.
U.S. oil jumps more than 7% on report Iran will halt talks with U.S. and completely block Hormuz
U.S. oil prices jumped nearly 8% Monday, after Iranian state media said Tehran will halt talks with the U.S. and completely close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. ...
Tehran will completely block the Strait of Hormuz and open other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Tasnim reported. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. ...
And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.
BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.
SoH transits:
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war
... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...
