Showing posts with label Jobs 2025. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jobs 2025. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Trump nominates Heritage Project 2025 economist to BLS, the very guy who had openly called for the firing of Erika McEntarfer at BLS after the disastrous July jobs numbers came out

If you thought the jobs numbers were unbelievable before, just wait.

 

 
... Antoni is the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation and has been a longtime critic of the BLS. ...
 
Remember when Trump said he knew nothing about Project 2025?
 
Yeah, that was a good one.
 

 
 

Thursday, August 7, 2025

The Treasury Secretary is such a kiss-ass and knows damn well that the Fed's so-called full employment mandate was a set of handcuffs put on the Fed in 1978

And why did the Congress do that to the Fed?

So the Congress could evade responsibility for high unemployment as well as for high inflation, that's why.

A bunch of cowards six ways to Sunday they are.

Besides, core personal consumption expenditures is the Fed's key metric, as everyone knows, and that is an inflation metric, not an employment metric. 

And The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act specifically recognizes that reducing inflation is the Fed's main job, actually mandating ZERO inflation, not 2% inflation as widely misinterpreted. 

Meanwhile there is another report of employment besides the total non-farm payrolls report which the Fed can consult, and it shows employment continues near all-time highs in July.

No change to DFF was the appropriate response of the Fed to persistent core inflation way above 2%.  

 

 
 
 


 

 

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Mike Shedlock, veteran critic of the BLS since the Great Recession: This is a clear case of shoot the messenger

 Did Trump Fire the BLS Head for Cause, Being the Messenger, or Something Else?

 

... “The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference.”

Trump wants you to believe hundreds if not thousands of people are in on the scheme and they are all silent.

The Cult sucks it up as if that makes sense.

I do not defend the antiquated procedures of the BLS. I have been writing about the flaws for years.

Yet, I can say that in all my conversations with BLS technicians (dozens over the years), I have found BLS [personnel] to be knowledgeable, courteous, and helpful. ...

 

Sorry Cultists and conspiracy theorists, the data is not rigged. And don’t pee your panties because it won’t be under Trump either (or someone will point it out).

Regardless, Trump’s tariffs ensure it will get worse. I expect many small businesses will go under. Trump has only himself to blame.

 

Friday, August 1, 2025

Mad King Ludwig fires BLS commissioner in a fit of rage over his bad jobs numbers, blaming the messenger

I don't recall Obama firing anybody at BLS in 2011 when there were ZERO jobs created in August.

 


 

Banana republic stuff from the Banana Republican.

Trump is unfit to be president.

 

Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets

 

... “I can’t believe what I just saw,” said Peter Mallouk, president and chief investment officer of Creative Planning. Trump’s social media post seemed like a parody or satire at first, Mallouk said.
 
“This is not healthy,” he added. “We can’t have a set of numbers come out and fire somebody that served under numerous administrations in various roles because you don’t like the numbers.”

William Beach, a 2017 Trump appointee and McEntarfer’s immediate predecessor at BLS, also sharply criticized her firing.

“The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,” Beach posted on X.

“This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system,” Beach added in a statement. “The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.” ...

Limbaugh-Trump dumb ass unemployment rate 37.3% in July 2025, near record 103.4 million eating but not working

 



Look at that flight to US Treasury safety

 

 
 
 

Mr. Big Stuff has cut just 84,000 federal jobs since January through July, barely 2.8%

 



There have been just five Julys since 2008 when full-time employment exceeded 50% of population, and yep, you guessed it, July 2025 ain't one of 'em

Full time as a percentage of population was 52.32% in July 2008,

50.66% in July 2018 (ten years later!),

50.98% in July 2019,

50.69% in July 2022,

50.74% in July 2023,

50.26% in July 2024, and . . .

. . . 49.72% in July 2025. 


 

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Monday, July 28, 2025

The Detroit News: Harvest of hand-picked crops in Michigan in immediate peril due to Trump deportation program, prices set to rocket higher

 Editorial: Trump must act quickly to avert a harvest crisis

The immigration crisis at the southern border has been replaced by one in America's orchards and farm fields.

With harvest season about to begin in earnest, farmers are desperate for laborers to pick their fruit and vegetables. Already in the Pacific Northwest, much of the cherry crop was left to rot because of the shortage of agricultural workers.

The crisis will soon roll into Michigan, where apples, cherries, blueberries, asparagus and other crops are rapidly ripening. Hand-picked specialty crops are a $6.3 billion industry in Michigan, supporting 41,000 jobs.

The shortage of farm workers has been building for years, due to an aging agricultural workforce, competition from more lucrative and less grueling jobs and restrictions on immigrant labor.

This year, it is exacerbated by the Trump administration's crackdown on unauthorized immigrants and the deportation of those who have entered the country illegally.

Estimates are that 42% of farm workers are undocumented migrants. Recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on farms employing migrants have frightened away many of those workers from the fields where they had been working.

But the work they do hasn't gone away. Fruit and vegetables still need to be harvested. If they're not, it will lead to food waste, shortages and higher prices on the grocery shelves.

When asked about the worker shortage, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the solution lies in greater mechanization of farms and matching the 34 million able bodied Americans who must find jobs or lose their Medicaid benefits with farmers who need workers.

While Rollins is correct that those who can work should be expected to, it's doubtful even the risk of losing health care benefits will coax the jobless into hot, backbreaking farm work.

Her solutions will take time and large capital investments. They won't save this year's harvest.

The Trump administration must take emergency action to assure there are enough workers to bring in the crops this summer and fall.

Rather than deporting migrants willing to fill essential jobs such as harvesting, the administration should grant them seasonal visas and a no-deportation guarantee as long as they are working on farms.

Beyond that, reform is needed for the H-2A visa program that allows farmers to legally employ temporary workers from another country. The application process is too complex and time-consuming. It must be simplified; farmers need help now.

Also at issue is the federal mandatory minimum wage for H-2A visa holders, now set at $18.50 an hour. That's nearly $8 an hour higher than the state minimum wage in Michigan. When added to housing and other costs for these workers, many farmers have to limit their use of the visas.

Longer term, resources should be devoted to recruiting domestic workers for the agriculture industry. Farmers are also being encouraged to raise wages for native-born workers, add benefits and improve working conditions.

All of that is expensive and will inevitably show up in grocery prices. But so will the shortages caused by allowing crops to rot in fields.

The most sensible option for this season is to back off deportation of farm workers while solutions are pursued for either replacing them or giving them legal status.

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Jobs going bye-bye in the news

 

Every major bank passes stress test from the US Federal Reserve

507 banks failed in the United States 2008-2014 inclusive, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund nearly $90 billion. Many millions of homes went into completed foreclosure.

 
 
... All 22 banks tested this year would have remained solvent and above the minimum thresholds to continue to operate, the Fed said, despite absorbing roughly $550 billion in theoretical losses. ...
 
Under this year’s hypothetical scenario, a major global recession would have caused a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 33% decline in housing prices. The unemployment rate would rise to 10% and stock prices would fall 50%. In 2024, the hypothetical scenario was a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 55% decline in stock prices and a 36% decline in housing prices. ...      
 
The 2024 benchmarks are a mixture.
 
Commercial real estate prices year over year fell more than 11% in 4Q2008, and more than 30% in 4Q2009. Planning for a future 40% decline seems appropriate.
 
The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013. But since the median price of houses sold has jumped by about 31% just since 2020, planning for a future 36% decline is more than appropriate.
 
Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The civilian employment level contracted by almost 7 million 2007-2010 on an average basis, and did not recover until 2014, seven long years later. Pandemic unemployment peaked at 14.8% in April 2020. We got as high as 10.8% in November and December 1982. Great Depression unemployment peaked at 25.59% in May 1933. This one is a crap-shoot. 
 
The average price of the S&P 500 fell 50.8% between October 2007 and March 2009, but in 2007 the S&P 500 was valued about 26% above the long term mean, not 130% as in 2024.
 
That's the datum that worries me. Just to get to its historical median value of 81, the S&P 500 today would have to fall 61%, to about 2425.
 
Imagine the howls. 
 
 

 
  
 

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Initial claims for unemployment in June 2025 were last higher in June 2023, but yikes continued claims were last higher in Dec 2021

4-week moving averages, initial claims monthly average, continued claims biweekly average: