I hope the Fed got the memo.
It all betrays an inability to think.
Bloomberg here said:
... The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the government’s preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. The final figures are due early next year. ...
No, it's not at all likely.
It's a preliminary number for crying out loud, the size of which reflects more on the increasing difficulty BLS is having gathering the monthly data in more or less real time than it does on the data itself.
Bloomberg then followed that up with a scary chart of previous preliminary benchmark revision estimates, as if those represented reality, too. And then people who should know better repeated the scary chart.
This story went particularly hysterical about it: The BLS Hallucinated a Million Jobs. The Fed Can't Fix This.
But we've known since February what the BLS really thinks the final numbers are, in thousands, and all these irresponsible sources just leave that out, because . . . clicks:
Average US Treasury yields by duration Fri Sep 5, 2025:
Bills 3.96
Notes 3.69
Bonds 4.75
Aggregate 3.98 (down 4.5% from Aug average).
The aggregate was already down 6.5% from January in August. The only yields still holding up had been in bonds, which gave up 11 basis points on Friday, yielding 4.75 vs. the August average of 4.86, down about 2.2%.
The rosy scenario, which isn't rosy, is for stagflation. The worse scenario is for recession, possibly signaled by the revision to June payrolls, now down 13k.
You know, like in January 2001, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The point is, people are spooked.
Yeah, that's what we're afraid of.
Obviously more heads need to roll at the Bureau of Labor Statistics because in Trump's wonderful economy payrolls must have risen a lot more than 22k in August lololol.
Payrolls rose 22,000 in August, less than expected in further sign of hiring slowdown
... Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to rise by 75,000.
The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June after the prior estimate was lowered by 27,000. ...
...
a typical Zoomer on the apps is getting rejected by, and rejecting,
more prospective partners in a week than a typical married boomer has in their entire life.
... Ella, a 20-year-old from Allentown, Pennsylvania, applied to 12 colleges and got rejected from 10. "I had so much hubris and unfounded confidence," she says. "I just thought, well, I'll only want to go to college if I can get into a 'prestigious school.' They ask, 'Why us?' obviously, and I couldn't tell them why besides it's Harvard." In a Substack post she published before her high school graduation, she described how at odds her tenfold rejection was with her belief in simply working hard to succeed. "I thought that I was going to be someone," she wrote.
... many Zoomers apply to more jobs in a day than many lucky Boomers have in their lives. ...
If you thought the jobs numbers were unbelievable before, just wait.
And why did the Congress do that to the Fed?
So the Congress could evade responsibility for high unemployment as well as for high inflation, that's why.
A bunch of cowards six ways to Sunday they are.
Besides, core personal consumption expenditures is the Fed's key metric, as everyone knows, and that is an inflation metric, not an employment metric.
And The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act specifically recognizes that reducing inflation is the Fed's main job, actually mandating ZERO inflation, not 2% inflation as widely misinterpreted.
Meanwhile there is another report of employment besides the total non-farm payrolls report which the Fed can consult, and it shows employment continues near all-time highs in July.
No change to DFF was the appropriate response of the Fed to persistent core inflation way above 2%.
Did Trump Fire the BLS Head for Cause, Being the Messenger, or Something Else?
... “The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference.”
Trump wants you to believe hundreds if not thousands of people are in on the scheme and they are all silent.
The Cult sucks it up as if that makes sense.
I do not defend the antiquated procedures of the BLS. I have been writing about the flaws for years.
Yet, I can say that in all my conversations with BLS technicians (dozens over the years), I have found BLS [personnel] to be knowledgeable, courteous, and helpful. ...
Sorry Cultists and conspiracy theorists, the data is not rigged. And don’t pee your panties because it won’t be under Trump either (or someone will point it out).
Regardless, Trump’s tariffs ensure it will get worse. I expect many small businesses will go under. Trump has only himself to blame.