Black people calling black people monkeys

Here.

RNC fundraising in July 2016 is down 61% from July 2012: Donors exhausted about $750 million on 16 losers in the primaries

OpenSecrets has the RNC story here.

Stupid liberals blame this fundraising debacle on Trump when Republicans have only themselves to blame for throwing tons of good money after bad during the primaries, exhausting the donors. If the dopes at Politicus had just opened up OpenSecrets they'd have seen how.

Jeb! Bush burned through $152 million as of August 22nd, and won bupkis.

Lyin' Ted Cruz? $155 million spent.

Little Marco? $164 million (he's over $2 million in the hole, which is the real reason why he flip-flopped and decided to run for the Senate again).

John Kasich spent $40 million (and he's nearly $6 million in the hole, which is exactly what he deserves).

Chris Christie spent nearly $32 million.

Ben Carson, you won't believe it, spent nearly $79 million.

Scott Walker: almost $33 million.

Carly Fiorina: almost $26 million.

Rand Paul spent over $21 million.

Mike Huckabee spent $10.5 million and he's still $275,000 in the hole. 

Lindsey Grahamnesty: over $10 million.

Bobby Jindal blew nearly $6 million.

Rick Perry: over $17 million, also in the red by $111,000.

And Rick Santorum spent $2.5 million and he's in the red $412,000.

Pataki and Gilmore bring up the rear with relatively smaller sums.

Donald Trump has spent over $97 million and yet has over $40 million in the bank.

It's clear from the fundraising that there were only four or five real contenders here, not seventeen: Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson. And after four riveting televised debates before Thanksgiving 2015 polling showed the same thing, and arguably Bush no longer belonged up there. The RNC should have put its foot down at that point and cut the debate stage to four: You pull 10 points in the polls or you're out.

Things might have turned out very differently. Instead we had to listen to Kasich, Christie, Fiorina and Paul divert attention away from an in depth examination of the issues dividing the candidates attracting over 70% of Republican eyeballs. The candidate might have been better for it today, and the party more unified and flush.

Republicans demonstrated increased unity last night as delegates previously pledged to others voted for Donald Trump

Trump, who won 1543 delegates in the primary season, received 1725 votes from the floor as states like Michigan upped their ante from the 25 bound delegates for Trump to 51. Trump increased his support by almost 12%.

Similarly Pennsylvania which had 17 votes bound for Trump and 64 total committed cast 70 for him.

Both states passed on their votes in the roll call in order to allow the New York delegation to put their favored son over the top for the nomination, showing that Michigan and Pennsylvania have New York values, too.

Ted Cruz, who won 559 delegates in the primaries and caucuses, received 475 votes from the floor, 15% fewer than he had won.

Marco Rubio, who had won 165, received 114, 31% fewer.

John Kasich, who had won 161, received 120, 25% fewer.

Ben Carson received 7, Jeb Bush 3 (previously had 4) and Rand Paul 2 (previously had 1).

It appears that 26 votes of the 2472 total delegates were not cast at all (no shows? neverTrumpers? never allocated?). No votes were cast for Fiorina or Huckabee on the floor, each of whom had won one in the primaries.

GOP delegate race update for Donald Trump, post-Tuesday's 5-state eastern primaries

With 502 delegates remaining in 10 contests beginning in Indiana next week, there are also tonight 70 unallocated delegates remaining in Colorado (3), Oklahoma (3), Wyoming (4), Louisiana (5), US Virgin Islands (9), Guam (8), American Samoa (7), North Dakota (18), New York (2), Pennsylvania (10) and Rhode Island (1).

Trump's total has risen since Tuesday's contests to 994, acquiring a total of 147 in his blowout victories as the final numbers have come in. 906 delegates belong to the eight other contenders.

This means he needs 48.4% of the remaining 502 to clinch the nomination, or 42.5% of the 502 plus 70, or an even smaller percentage if he forges an alliance with another candidate or candidates. Trump already has the endorsement of Carson (9 delegates).

Bloomberg says Ted is dead using AP delegate math and can't reach 1,237

Here:

The path for Cruz to 1,237 delegates before the July convention in Cleveland is now officially closed: 674 delegates remain in the states ahead, and Cruz is 678 short of the magic number, according to an Associated Press tally. Worse, his double-digit victory in Wisconsin on April 5 has failed to produce a perceivable polling bounce in key upcoming states.

That's based on 674 delegates remaining.

Beginning with Connecticut next week, Real Clear Politics also shows 674 delegates still up for grabs.

Bloomberg itself, however, shows 734 not yet allocated, including 3 in Colorado, 3 in Oklahoma, 4 in Wyoming, 5 in Louisiana, 9 in the US Virgin Islands, 8 in Guam, 7 in American Samoa, 18 in North Dakota, and 3 in New York. Subtract those 60 and you get 674.

At 559 delegates committed to him so far, Cruz needs 678 to get to 1,237, so technically there aren't enough left in the future contests, but those 60 from previous contests are still in the mix. 101 delegates or so will probably go to Trump in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island next week, balancing out those 60, with Pennsylvania's 71 delegates also in the mix.

After that, Ted will be truly dead. 

The delegates won by others are Rubio (171), Kasich (147), Carson (9), Bush (4), Fiorina (1), Huckabee (1) and Rand Paul (1).

With 845, Trump still needs 392, which is 58% of the 674 remaining in future contests, or 53% of the 734 future plus yet undecided, or . . . add in those won by others and Trump needs a combination of future wins, undecideds and poached delegates representing just 37% of the 1,068 total available.

Paul Manafort's job.

GOP delegate race update: No one can win except Trump, which is why the GOP should embrace him instead of fighting him

According to Breitbart here, it's going to take until about April 15th for the Missouri GOP primary results to be certified by the Secretary of State.

The Missouri GOP shows here that Trump won 37 delegates. Real Clear Politics credits Trump with only 25 from Missouri.

Add those 12 to Trump's current 736, and you get 748, which is 48.5% of the 1541 already allocated:

Trump: has 736 + 12 (48.5%)

Cruz: 463 (30%)

Rubio: 171 (11.1%)

Kasich: 143 (9.3%)

Carson: 9 (0.6%)

Bush: 4 (0.3%)

Fiorina: 1 (0.1%)

Huckabee: 1 (0.1%)

Paul: 1 (0.1%).

That leaves just 931 available, of which Trump needs 489 to get to 1237, or 52.5%:

Trump: needs 489 (52.5% of 931 . . . 1.1 times his current level of support, still very likely)

Cruz: needs 774 (83.1% of 931 . . . 2.8 times his current level of support, nearly impossible)

Kasich: needs 1094 (117.5% of 931 . . . 12.6 times his current level of support, impossible).

The only thing Cruz and Kasich are doing is possibly keeping Trump from making it to 1237.

If they want a needlessly and horribly divided GOP going into the convention, they should continue to play the spoilers. If they do that, they'll be to blame for the catastrophe.

But if they really want to have a chance against the Democrats in the fall, they should unite NOW around Donald Trump.

Trump hits new high 40% nationally in Real Clear Politics poll average

Trump never shared the lead with anyone except Ben Carson last November.

Losing the propaganda war: Foolish Rush Limbaugh's big Lewandowski problem

Rush Limbaugh let his partisanship for Ted Cruz show on Friday when he prematurely ejaculated all over the Corey Lewandowski non-story here and here before it became clear here and here that Michelle Fields is just trying to sell her boobs new book.

Friday was a very bad day for Rush Limbaugh and the other Ted Cruz propagandists.

None of them dared touch the radioactive bombshell Drudge stories showing Ted Cruz has been faking his Southern Baptist bona fides. ("If we don't cover it, it doesn't exist").

Limbaugh's attempt to make the Carson endorsement of Trump the story of the day instead of Cruz' lies about his background utterly failed.

And now the Lewandowski story falls apart.

But expect no mea culpas from Limbaugh or any of the others.

They're just a pack of weasels.

Rush tries to make the story today about Ben Carson instead of Ted Cruz' religion, throws Carson under the bus for endorsing Trump

Here:

CARSON:  Some people said, "But, well, you know, he said terrible things about you; how can you support him?"  Well, first of all, we buried the hatchet.  That was political stuff.  And, you know, that happens in American politics.  The politics of personal destruction and all that is not something that I particularly believe in or anything that I get involved in.  But I do recognize that it is a part of the process.  We move on because it's not about me; it's not about Mr. Trump. It's about America.  And this is what we have to be thinking about.  I have found, in talking with him, that, you know, there's a lot more alignment philosophically and spiritually than I ever thought that there was.

RUSH:  Okay, well, that's... I'm sitting here thinking, "If that's just politics, why are you so upset at Ted Cruz for believing what CNN tweeted about leaving the campaign and heading back to Florida?"  Well, no, I'm just asking.  Well, yeah. "How can you support Trump? He said some terrible things about you." "Well, we buried the hatchet. It's political stuff, you know? That kind of stuff happens in politics."  Well, he must not have forgiven Ted Cruz.  Ted Cruz didn't do anything!  Ted Cruz never said anything like what Trump said about Ben Carson.  But we're not through here.  Carson continued...

Flashback to last June here:

Dr. Benjamin Carson is one of the finest, most accomplished human beings on this planet who has done more for people than most people in politics will ever do.  And he's done it personally, not with other people's money. Dr. Ben Carson is a first-class human being and citizen.  He is exactly the kind of person that you could trust running any government institution.  You would trust him to babysit your kids.  He's just an admirable human being.  He has overcome great odds.  He's brilliant.  He's temperate.  There is everything in the world to recommend about the humanity of Dr. Benjamin Carson, and here he is on CNN today ripped and said it's unfortunate that somebody like Ben Carson will be made to look serious when Trump gets in as the clown. 

Rush Limbaugh talks about anything to avoid the Ted Cruz bombshell story of the day

For a guy who claims to take his daily agenda from the headlines, Rush Limbaugh sure made a point of not talking about them today because the headlines crucify his hero Ted Cruz as the liar Donald Trump has been telling us he is since Iowa.

In the process Rush made an ASS of himself, ultimately comparing Donald Trump to Sean Penn, and even attacking the credibility of Ben Carson, who endorsed Trump this morning.

What a jerk. Previously Limbaugh called Carson, and more than once, one of the finest people alive.

These were easily the most telling three hours about the limitations of one Rush Hudson Limbaugh since his prescription drug scandal years ago.

A truly pathetic performance unworthy of the conservative cause.

Trump now needs 54% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237

That's 779 delegates needed.

901 of the remaining 1442 delegates available are in 17 "winner take all" contests.

But Colorado (37) and Wyoming (29) delegates, still unallocated, are still in play at their respective state conventions, to be concluded by mid-April.

Plus delegates for Carson (8) are in play because he withdrew.

Momentum for all GOP candidates has slowed since Super Tuesday, but Trump's Mo is still tops

Momentum for all GOP candidates was slowed by Super Saturday yesterday, but Trump retains the easiest path to 1,237 despite a bitter attack from Mitt Romney and the establishment on Thursday morning and an ugly debate in Detroit on Thursday evening.

After Super Tuesday, Trump needed 51.45% of remaining delegates* to clinch the nomination with 1,237. Now he needs 52.57% of the remaining after Saturday's contests. His Mo has slowed by 2.2% but overall remains better than Cruz', who did well yesterday with indignant Christian Kansans and oddball libertarian Mainers.

Cruz has seen his Mo slow the least of all the candidates yesterday, needing 56.67% of remaining delegates after Super Tuesday to needing 57.64% now, or slowing by just 1.7%.

Rubio and Kasich, however, have both had flat tires on their journey to 1,237 yesterday.

After Super Tuesday, Rubio needed an untenable 63.17% of remaining delegates, but now he needs 68.17%. His Mo is down 7.9%.

And Kasich not only had a flat yesterday, his ball joint broke, too. Needing 67.93% of remaining delegates after Super Tuesday, he needs 73.62% now. His Mo is down 8.4%. He clearly sees himself as a monkey wrench, attempting to yet queer both upcoming Michigan and Ohio just enough to set the conditions for a contested convention in his home state of Ohio this summer.

Not very sportsmanlike. But hey, that's the establishment for you.

*Don't forget Ben Carson who dropped out on Friday when calculating delegate allocations. He has eight in his pocket.

Chutzpah: Trump one ups Carson's answer for IRS tax audits

Ben Carson implied in the Republican debate last night that he was politically targeted for an IRS audit after speaking out publicly against Obamacare.

Donald Trump seemed to like the answer so much he decided to go for it for himself.

In remarks made to Chris Cuomo on CNN immediately after the debate, Trump blamed his long history of tax audits on the fact that he was being targeted for being a Christian.

Yeah, like the whole world thinks that's the reason.

In the South Carolina GOP primary the polling averaged a miss of 16.1% v 14.2% in New Hampshire

The Real Clear Politics poll average predicted the lineup of the outcome in South Carolina, but the percentage of the vote received was off on average by 16.1%, with the polls getting it most wrong about Jeb Bush who underperformed predictions by 37.2%. The polling was most accurate for Trump, who outperformed the predicted result by only 2.2%.

Trump 31.8% v 32.5% actual = outperformed polling by 2.2%

Rubio 18.8% v 22.5% actual = outperformed polling by 16.4%

Cruz 18.5% v 22.3% actual = outperformed polling by 17%

Bush 10.7% v 7.8% actual = underperformed polling by 37.2%

Kasich 9.0% v 7.6% actual = underperformed polling by 18.4%

Carson 6.8% v 7.2% actual = outperformed polling by 5.6%

Average variance of actual result from polling in South Carolina = 16.1%, 13% worse than in New Hampshire. On the other hand, polling in New Hampshire did not predict the lineup of the result as it did in South Carolina, except for Trump who came in first and Chris Christie who came in sixth as predicted by the polls there.

It looks like the polling in South Carolina for establishment candidates Bush and Kasich has been especially expressive of wishful thinking, since both have fallen far short of expectations.

It was bad enough that Bush has already dropped out, and rather ignominiously. A falloff in donations to Bush has been said to be an important reason why he decided to quit at this still early stage, which just goes to show what a spendthrift the richest guy in the campaign next to Trump has been. He would have been a bad president for government spending too.

As usual Rush Limbaugh gets it wrong, this time on the Emerson poll in Iowa and in New Hampshire

Here today:

There's an Emerson poll.  The Emerson poll has... What does the Emerson have?  Emerson poll has a shock. Find the Emerson poll.  Emerson poll.  Bush in second place and Rubio slipping to fourth, and everybody says, "Emerson poll? What the hell is the Emerson poll?"  It's a student poll.  Okay, so why does it matter?  Well, because they called Iowa.  Yeah.  Emerson was the only polling outfit that said Trump was not gonna win Iowa.  It had Trump and Cruz finishing in a tie.

No. And No.

Emerson had the Iowa race tightening to nearly even, but Trump was still +1 in the Emerson. Three major polls showed Trump reversing Cruz' lead, and all the polls after the first Emerson poll showed Trump winning. Even the Des Moines Register got it wrong. And of course Rush never mentions Cruz' cheating in Iowa against Carson and how the math involved mentioned by Karl Rove easily could have made the difference to Trump winning instead of Cruz.

And in New Hampshire, as we pointed out yesterday, Bush was second in the Emerson over a week ago but has DROPPED 2 points. Even Hannity is repeating similar drivel today about the Emerson poll. Bush in second according to the Emerson poll isn't news.

And there ends this episode of Dumb and Dumber.  

Iowa polling

Rush Limbaugh never mentioned the Karl Rove expose of Ted Cruz' lying today

Rush Limbaugh did his best to cover for Ted Cruz today by not mentioning the bombshell story which should persuade every honest observer that Ted Cruz is a lying sack of shit.

Real Clear Politics had video of the story here for at least 11 hours already, but Rush wouldn't touch it today.

As far as I can tell, neither did Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity nor Mark Levin, whose shows I could not listen to in their entirety. However Mark Levin spent considerable time ridiculing Karl Rove in the second half hour for some reason, but you can guess why.

Voicemail left by the Ted Cruz campaign to Iowa precinct captains at 7:29pm caucus night proves Cruz has been lying for the last 48 hours

From the story quoting a voicemail here:

"Dr. Ben Carson will be [garbled] suspending campaigning following tonight’s caucuses." 

According to Breitbart:

"The calls were placed after the Carson campaign had already clarified that Carson was not suspending his campaign. ... [T]he Carson campaign had already clarified at 6:53 p.m. that he was not dropping out."

Iowa Governor accuses Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Steve King of unethical and unfair behavior during Iowa Caucus

Here:

“This thing that they distributed on Caucus night saying that Dr. Carson was likely to drop out and his supporters should support Cruz, that is, I think, unethical and unfair,” Branstad said this morning. “I think there’ll be repercussions to that.” Cruz has apologized to Carson, the retired neurosurgeon who finished fourth in the Caucuses on Monday night.

Iowa Congressman Steve King, a Cruz backer, helped spread the drop out rumor and Branstad said King owes Carson an apology. “You know, we have a strong sense of fairness in Iowa,” Branstad said during an interview with Radio Iowa. “Distributing information that was not true about a candidate right at the time people are voting in the Caucuses is an inappropriate thing.”

Republican Iowa Caucus polling was off on average by 23%

Republican Iowa Caucus actual final results v Real Clear Politics poll averages on the day of the election:

Trump: 24.3 v 28.6, overestimated by 17.7%

Cruz:    27.6 v 23.9, underestimated by 13.4%

Rubio:  23.1 v 16.9, underestimated by 36.7%

Carson:  9.3 v   7.7, underestimated by 17.2%

Paul:      4.5 v   4.1, underestimated by 8.9%

Bush:     2.8 v   4.1, overestimated by 46.4%

Average miss for the top six: 23.4%

Average miss for the top three: 22.6% 

Smoking gun: Here's the message Ted Cruz sent to 1500 precinct captains before Iowa voting began

From the story here:

"There are 1,500 precincts. Do the math… If that message cost Carson four votes per precinct to switch to Cruz, then Cruz beats Trump. If he doesn’t switch four, then he loses."