Thursday, February 4, 2016

Republican Iowa Caucus polling was off on average by 23%

Republican Iowa Caucus actual final results v Real Clear Politics poll averages on the day of the election:

Trump: 24.3 v 28.6, overestimated by 17.7%
Cruz:    27.6 v 23.9, underestimated by 13.4%
Rubio:  23.1 v 16.9, underestimated by 36.7%
Carson:  9.3 v   7.7, underestimated by 17.2%
Paul:      4.5 v   4.1, underestimated by 8.9%
Bush:     2.8 v   4.1, overestimated by 46.4%

Average miss for the top six: 23.4%
Average miss for the top three: 22.6% 

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