Showing posts with label LA Times/USC Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LA Times/USC Poll. Show all posts

Friday, September 30, 2016

Trump moves from +1.4 on 9/23 in the LA Times/USC poll to +5.6 on 9/30

That suggests, unlike the Rasmussen poll, that Debate One helped Trump.

Go figure.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Polling schmolling: In September to date it's been from Clinton +8 to Trump +5

Like I'm supposed to believe these polls are doing anything but suppressing the vote, not measuring it.

NBC News and The Wall Street Journal hate Donald Trump, so when they come out tonight with Clinton +7 through 9/19 am I going to believe that when the LA Times/USC poll which cants slightly Republican has Trump +5 through the same date?

Of course not.

The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton +1.9, from polls generally hostile to the threat posed by Donald J. Trump. We're doing OK.




Sunday, September 18, 2016

Hillary's polling has pneumonia

This afternoon Hillary is polling +0.9 in the Real Clear Politics average of seven polls. On 9/11 she was +3.1.

The LA Times/USC poll has Trump +7. On 9/11 it was Hillary +1.4. That's a swing of over eight points toward Trump.

The Rasmussen poll on Thursday had Trump +2. A week prior to that it was Clinton +4. That's a six point swing toward Trump.

Sunday, September 11, 2016

On 9/11/16 Rasmussen has Clinton +4, LA Times/USC has Clinton +1.4

Rasmussen: Clinton 43%, Trump 39%.

LATimes/USC: Clinton 45%, Trump 43.6%.

The Real Clear Politics average shows Clinton +3.1 from eight recent polls, with an average margin of error of 3.5.

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Trump is +3 in the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll this morning

The poll is here.

Trump's biggest lead in the poll so far was +7.3 at the end of July.

Clinton's biggest lead so far was +4.7 in mid-August.

For reasons discussed here, the pollsters concede the poll may be skewed Republican by as much as two points, which could mean Trump is currently +1 not +3.

Rasmussen currently has Trump +1.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Real Clear Politics classifies the LA Times/USC poll as a "likely voter" poll, but it isn't

And it is evident to me that none of the other "LV" polls are either. The pollsters ASK if they are likely voters or registered voters, which is different from talking to someone who actually voted in 2014 and 2012. None of these polls appear to be representing the views of exclusively likely voters.

What's even more disturbing, only the Bloomberg and ABC News polls are conducted by telephone, either landline or cell. The other four are conducted online in some way.

The more you look into it, the less confident you become, which would explain why the candidates continue to campaign for your attention and fight like hell. They don't trust the polls either.

From the FAQ, here:

Q: Do you use a likely voter model? 
A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses.