Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Real Clear Politics classifies the LA Times/USC poll as a "likely voter" poll, but it isn't

And it is evident to me that none of the other "LV" polls are either. The pollsters ASK if they are likely voters or registered voters, which is different from talking to someone who actually voted in 2014 and 2012. None of these polls appear to be representing the views of exclusively likely voters.

What's even more disturbing, only the Bloomberg and ABC News polls are conducted by telephone, either landline or cell. The other four are conducted online in some way.

The more you look into it, the less confident you become, which would explain why the candidates continue to campaign for your attention and fight like hell. They don't trust the polls either.

From the FAQ, here:

Q: Do you use a likely voter model? 
A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses.



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