Friday, August 19, 2016

Polls troll, and Brexit showed the bookies weren't any better

Seen here:

Analysing outcome likelihoods in the real world is a risky business. But if all else fails, you can always rely on the one interest group that has a consistent stake in accurate outcome prediction – betting companies. OddsChecker currently has best odds for a leave vote at 11/4 (27% likely) and stay at 1/3 (75% likely). Make of that what you will.

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