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Thursday, April 4, 2024
Andrew Sullivan, the Cicero of the republic of gay, finally observes that the empire of transqueer means to abolish him . . . and biological sex for everyone
Saturday, October 8, 2022
The percentage holding full-time jobs through September 2022 held above 50%, disappointing the ubiquitous advocates of a Fed interest rate pivot
Full time as a percentage of civilian population in September was 50.3%, and for 2022 through September averaged 50.15%.
Not bad, considering.
The Fed will see little evidence in this figure that its interest rate increase policy is harming employment.
Stocks on Friday collapsed after a head fake to start the week to within 1.5% of the 52-week lows set a week ago.
Long term investment grade bonds and US Treasury securities also revisited lows from 9/27/22, coming within pennies of those benchmarks.
30-year yield for UST is back up to 3.86%. It was 3.87% on 9/27. At the beginning of 2022, yield was a paltry 2.01% by comparison.
UK gilts are experiencing the same action despite the Bank of England intervening to buy bonds.
The bond crisis is not over.
With yields soaring across the board no one wants to own the lower paying outstanding issues, which are legion, destroying their value.
But everything in the global economy is based on those, piled up in earnest after The Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and in orgiastic frenzy afterwards during the late pandemic.
Bond yields in 2022 are telling you that they are overvalued by 92%.
Stock market valuation is telling you a similar thing.
From 1938 through 2019 the median ratio of the S&P 500 to GDP is 81. In 2020 we averaged 154, or 90% overvalued.
This is the major deflationary headwind facing the world, the other side of the COVID-19 inflationary shock coin.
Push here, it comes out over there.
Modern central banking cannot escape this conundrum any more than the gold standard could.
The only thing the individual can do in this situation is to owe nothing and save everything, preferably in your hands.
Good luck.
Friday, July 29, 2022
America and its people have added over $12 trillion to their total credit market debt outstanding just since 2019, but that has done little but stall the decline of debt growth
The $90 trillion millstone: We did it to ourselves.
We are now in the future we tapped in the past for the prosperity of "debt draws forward prosperity", and there's little here to be found.
From 1946 to 2008 when we hit the debt growth iceberg, real GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 3.324%. Since then it has fallen 49%, to 1.68%.
We should have stayed with capitalism in the post-war, where one risks actual savings instead of future notional tax, income, and fiat money "revenues". But capitalism went out the window a long time ago, bringing with it the end of the gold standard, the creation of the Fed, and the introduction of the income tax, among other horribles.
Payback is a bitch, and what can't be paid back won't. The rest comes out of your hide.
Friday, November 30, 2018
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina sinks confirmation of Thomas Farr to US District Court in this congress, but cocaine Mitch may have another plan
Sunday, February 19, 2017
Nathan Lewis thinks pretty highly of Judy Shelton's book on the gold standard
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Commerce Secretary in April 2016 can't understand Hillary's flip-flop on TPP
Hillary's lyin' again: "This TPP sets the gold standard in free trade agreements"
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Richard Duncan gets creditism wrong three ways
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Gold bug Ralph Benko thinks Richard Nixon had to resign over the closing of the gold window!
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Friday, July 12, 2013
How A Good Central Banker Is Supposed To Behave
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not like this under Greenspan and Bernanke |
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Inflation Year Over Year April Is 1.06%: Bob Brinker Thinks That's Great!
Friday, April 19, 2013
Louis Woodhill: Gold As Money Is Inevitably Deflationary In Terms Of Its Supply
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Barry Ritholtz Is Against The World Religion Of Gold
The piece is regrettably inflammatory. Doesn't he know he's writing off the whole world as a bunch of religious kooks in this temper tantrum? That's pretty much what ideologues do when reality won't cooperate with their theories, but surely he must know that sovereigns and central banks the world over continue to build their hoardes of gold year upon year, now approaching 32,000 tonnes and 20% of all the stuff ever pulled out of the ground. That's quite the foundation for the edifice of the worldwide church of gold.
There is a reason for what appears on a Gold Eagle: The US government has decreed that gold is money, and that the price of gold cannot fall. It has fixed the price at $42.22 per troy ounce since 1973, and it hasn't fallen since. The one ounce $50 Gold Eagle thus closely approximates this valuation, as it should if America wants to maintain its credibility as the leader of the free world and the spokesman for truth, justice and the, well, American way. The excess, in case you were wondering, is simply a small bonus in exchange for providing the world with both its security and its reserve currency, both of which are quite costly to the inhabitants of the land of the free.
See, the price of gold hasn't ever fallen in America, it's only risen, just like Jesus. It's God's will. It is our manifest destiny.
Meanwhile gold continues to work for us in season and out of season, in good times and in bad. Our reserves have seen us through thick and thin, whether it's been the boom times under Reagan/Bush/Clinton or the misery index years of Jimmy Carter or the new depression years of Barack Obama. Our gold is still there, just like the flag. It hasn't rusted, shrunk in the rain, or even tarnished. Good as gold as they say. Things might be even better if we had more of it, but you've got to be thankful for your blessings, thankful for what you do have.
The truth is, even in the very worst of circumstances imaginable gold has performed miracles for people. A few well-placed gold coins not that long ago meant the difference between some of our fellow countrymen coming here or going to the gas chambers. Ask them and their progeny if escaping an apocalypse wasn't "just fine", even if they were penniless afterward.
No, the only suckers when it comes to gold have been those who let theirs go when misguided government came looking for it. Some of those babies confiscated in 1933 now fetch $300,000. The rest appreciated in value in their melted down form in the government's vault, but only 6600%. You could go to Harvard today with just 120 of those ounces. In the present banks and governments across the globe are finding the collateral gold provides rather more reliable than US Treasuries in a pinch, which is why they keep acquiring it. Evidently we haven't yet understood the message that this sends.
It's true in a sense that gold is a rejection of government control, but only in the sense of its opposite, self-control, which is what in America is the unique basis of our form of government. It was an idea bequeathed to us by Protestantism, and also by Plato, both of which are unhappily out of favor. But seeking to control your own destiny, which is what many foreigners are doing by acquiring gold, is actually the sincerest form of flattery of what the United States used to stand for. Free from the control of a reserve currency, there's no telling what others in the world may accomplish without us. But under a universal currency, there's no telling what we could still accomplish together.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Forbes: The Fed Is The Most Hypocritical, Thieving, Incompetent Bank In The Country
Friday, December 28, 2012
Consumer Prices Up 8.4% Under Four Years Of Obama
Similarly measured, the CPI rose 10.05% in the first term of George W. Bush, 11.15% in the second term.
The worst record in the post-war period was Carter's four years when CPI rose over 47%. In Eisenhower's first term CPI rose just 3.07%.
Measured from April 1973 (after the world went to a floating exchange rate system of currencies in the wake of the end of the gold standard in August 1971) to April 1999, 26 years, CPI raged 280% (a factor of 10.8 per year).
From April 1947 to April 1973 (CPI data not available before 1947), CPI rose a comparatively more modest 99% over 26 years (a factor of 3.8 per year).
For the 13 years since 1999, April to April, CPI has risen just 38% (a factor of 2.9 per year).
A composite of measures for the consumer bundle going back to the year 1900 at measuringworth.com here provides an interesting tool for comparison purposes.
While the dollar suffered a 446% decline for the 73 years between 1900 and 1973, a factor of 6.1 per year, in the 38 years between 1973 and 2011 the 406% decline is a factor of 10.7 per year, 75% worse per year since moving to a floating exchange rate currency system.
Viewed more broadly from the point of view of gold, from 1932 (the year of FDR's election and before his massive 69% devaluation of the gold-linked dollar in the spring of 1933) to the present day, the devaluation of the dollar has been in excess of 1500%.
From 1790 to 1932 the dollar declined just 54%.
At this hour, gold is $1,656.80 the ounce, $1,636.13 the ounce higher than it was in 1932, the last year of its fixed price at $20.67 the ounce, just another way of expressing the devaluation of the dollar.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Returning To The Gold Standard, But At What Price?
Friday, February 25, 2011
Gold's Gift: Stable, Long-Term, Low Interest Rates
Monday, January 17, 2011
NY Times Paints Loughner and Hard Money Libertarianism as Right Wing Extreme
Clear-headed thinkers on the right, like George Will, have well noted the Federal Reserve's failure to maintain a sound currency partly because its mandate was divided in 1978 to include maintaining full employment. Instead, hard money ideology has been an enthusiasm prevalent on the fringe, among Libertarians, in the post-war era in view of the fact that the monetarist consensus has been breaking down due to its failures, and because the gold standard used to be, well, the law of the land, all the way up until . . . FDR.