Wednesday, August 27, 2025
Speaking of The Worker, what's old and stupid is new again at The Department of Labor
Thursday, August 22, 2024
This conservative outrage machine story yesterday and today about Commerce Secretary Raimondo has got to be the dumbest one I've heard in a long time
She was asked an ignorant question.
Why would the Commerce Secretary have something timely to say about employment revisions released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the Labor Department?
It's not her area. I wouldn't expect her to know anything about it, and if I had a brain I wouldn't bother asking her.
Commerce and Labor are two separate cabinet level departments and have been since 1913.
I don't expect the Commerce Secretary to have the latest labor information anymore than I expect the Labor Secretary to be able to respond to the latest GDP report produced by the BEA at the Commerce Dept.
But all the ignorami on the right, but I repeat myself, are up in arms over this. It's embarrassing.
What's really going on here is outrage over the size of the revision, which is the largest since 2009.
Republicans want to say Biden and Harris have been lying about the jobs numbers for a year to make themselves look better.
That's a crock. The initial benchmark revisions occur every year around this time, and their size should be no surprise since the Employment Situation Summary every month contains revisions upon revisions upon revisions of prior months. This happens all the time, and if you know you know that this year the numbers have been particularly susceptible of large revisions, criticism, and expressed suspicions from the FOMC members on down.
But total nonfarm payrolls have always been this way. They are quick and dirty on any day. I gave up following them in favor of other measures precisely because it involves securing jello on a galley plate in high seas, and I have better things to do.
Full time employment, measured with other data, around 50% of population under Joe Biden hasn't been great, and it hasn't been awful either. In my arrogant opinion, following total nonfarm and its endless stream of revisions is a fool's errand.
Even more foolish to get upset about it when plenty of other indicators show that employment up until this summer has been "secularly tight", as one economist likes to put it. Continued claims for unemployment have been steady as she goes since late 2021.
The slight recent elevation in these claims numbers is consistent with a softening of employment, which I have noted elsewhere in regard to full time jobs.
The bloom is off the rose it seems, but the preliminary total nonfarm benchmark revision down 819,000 is a problem with that model, not a sign of a sudden problem with employment.
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Inflation more durable than policymakers had anticipated, Joe Biden most hurt
This week provided a reminder that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon :
The bad news began Monday when a New York Federal Reserve survey showed the consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February. It continued Tuesday with news that consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, and then culminated Thursday with a release indicating that pipeline pressures at the wholesale level also are heating up. ...
The latest jolt on inflation came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that the producer price index, a forward-looking measure of pipeline inflation at the wholesale level, showed a 0.6% increase in February. That was double the Dow Jones estimate and pushed the 12-month level up 1.6%, the biggest move since September 2023.
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Contact your utility commission and complain about natural gas and electricity prices not coming down
Sunday, October 1, 2023
Fox Business' broad inflation report contained an error
Here's Megan Henney, September 29th :
An inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve ticked higher in August as steep prices continue to squeeze millions of U.S. households.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month, according to the Labor Department. On an annual basis, prices climbed 3.5% — up from 3.3% recorded the previous month, underscoring the challenge of taming high inflation.
She's referring to PCEPI.
That measure isn't up from 3.3% the previous month. It's up from 3.4%, and 3.2% the month before that.
Jeff Cox at CNBC got it right, same day, as usual:
Including food and energy, headline PCE increased 0.4% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago. Headline inflation has been creeping higher in recent months after hitting 3.2% in June.
Forbes also had it right, because it actually checked the most recent data, which Fox evidently did not:
The most recent PCE price index data was released on September 29, 2023, covering the month of August. The
headline August PCE inflation figure was +3.5% year over year, which
was up slightly from the revised annual rate of +3.4% in July.
Friday, August 18, 2023
Child care prices rising at nearly twice the rate of inflation
The national average price of daycare and preschool services rose 6% in July from a year before, the Labor Department reported recently. That was nearly double the overall inflation rate of 3.2%, which was down from its recent peak of 9.1% in June last year. ... a mother of three living in Blaine, Minn. ... said she is paying about $2,500 a month for child care this summer.
More.
Saturday, July 6, 2019
Headline payrolls in 2019 may be overstating the real numbers by more than 25%
Monday, March 11, 2019
LOL Larry Kudlow: 22,000 new payrolls in February 2019 "fluky", but 54,000 in May 2011 "meager", economy "sputtering", possibly a sign of recession
Saturday, April 2, 2016
Since the 1990s 144,000 manufacturing and related jobs lost in Wisconsin due to free-trade agreements
Monday, December 15, 2014
Federal Reserve and FDIC lose power
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Low Wage Workers Get Reduced Hours, Probably Due To ObamaCare, The Rest Work More
Thursday, October 10, 2013
First Time Claims For Unemployment Surge Above 300,000 Breaking Long Streak
Saturday, October 5, 2013
IBD Poll Puts Unemployment At 31%: 47.9 Million Looking For Work, 2 Times Higher Than BLS U6 Level
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The U6 unemployment rate of 13.7% in August is the combination of the officially unemployed, 11.3 million, the marginally attached to the labor force, 2.3 million, and the part-time for economic reasons, 7.9 million. That comes to 21.5 million unemployed in August by the broadest official government measure. The IBD poll puts the level 2.23 times higher than that at 47.9 million.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
4th Delay Of ObamaCare Provisions Revealed By The New York Times
Thursday, April 25, 2013
The Millions Who Lost Their Jobs, 2001-2012
2002 20.9 million
2003 20.8 million
2004 17.7 million
2005 17.7 million
2006 16.2 million
2007 16.7 million
2008 21.6 million
2009 29.5 million
2010 23.7 million
2011 21.7 million
2012 19.4 million.
George W. Bush, first term average = 20.1 million annually (387,000 weekly)
Barack H. Obama, first term average = 23.6 million annually (454,000 weekly)
George W. Bush, second term average = 18.1 million annually (348,000 weekly)
Barack H. Obama, second term average = ? (at 375,000 weekly for the first 15 weeks of 2013, that's an annual rate of 19.5 million to date)
George W. Bush, total average over both terms = 19.1 million annually (367,000 weekly)