Saturday, September 24, 2011

Obama vs. Bush: Initial Claims for Unemployment Compared

Hundreds of thousands of people lose a job every week, year in and year out, and file a first-time claim for unemployment benefits. The federal government keeps track of that information and reports it weekly, here. You can examine it for yourself by following the link at the bottom of that page at the US Department of Labor.

What follows is the Obama record of such claims (150 weeks so far-November 2008 to present) compared with the Bush record (417 weeks-November 2000 through October 2008), showing the seasonally adjusted number of weeks in which 200,000 or more filed a claim for first time benefits, 300,000 or more, and so on up through 600,000 or more.

Generally speaking, first time claims in the 300,000s is consistent with an economy where people lose a job and find a new one within the usual period of benefits, which customarily has been limited to 26 weeks (6 months). Hence the usual advice of financial advisers to save money equivalent to 6 months' expenses. At the same time, net new workers enter the workforce as the population grows in size, and they also find work under those conditions.

200,000+ (Obama: 0 weeks; Bush: 14 weeks) -- longest consecutive streak: Bush with 7
300,000+ (Obama: 8 weeks; Bush: 304 weeks) -- longest consecutive streaks: Bush with 104, 61, 30, 24
400,000+ (Obama: 86 weeks; Bush: 98 weeks) -- longest consecutive streaks: Obama with 52, Bush 23
500,000+ (Obama: 35 weeks; Bush: 1 week) -- longest consecutive streak: Obama with 20
600,000+ (Obama: 21 weeks; Bush: 0 weeks) -- longest consecutive streak: Obama with 18

Unless initial claims soon recede below 400,000 per week and stay there, Obama will easily beat Bush's two term record of first time claims at the 400,000+ level in just one term. And so far, 60 percent of Obama's time in office has been spent with unemployment at catastrophically high levels week after week, whereas under Bush it was just 6 percent of the time.