The Shiller S and P price to earnings ratio stands tonight at 19.42, as here, still way above the historic middling 16.
I can remember people calling it the buying opportunity of a lifetime, at around 15, in March 2009. Why isn't this the selling opportunity of a lifetime?
The S and P is down over 10 percent year to date, down less than one-half of one percent in the last 12 months when QE II got underway, and down 14 percent in the last five years despite QE I and II. Not counting (negligible) inflation on the negative side, nor (declining) dividends on the positive side.
Since 1881 opportunities to sell around 20 outnumber opportunities to buy around 10, but not by much: the ratio is roughly 11 to 9, in my post-prandial bliss.
This is still a selling opportunity.
