That's what we said here about Obama's vote margins way back in 2009, which looked like this:
Colorado 215,000
Florida 236,000
Indiana 28,000
Iowa 147,000
Nevada 121,000
New Mexico 126,000
North Carolina 14,000
Ohio 262,000
Virginia 235,000.
Now others are catching on, especially as Obama's support in those states dries up.
From The Washington Times, here:
Mr. Obama was able to win three years ago mainly because he captured nine states that had gone for Republican George W. Bush in 2004: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Combined, those states will account for 112 electoral votes in 2012.
But with just over a year until the next election, Mr. Obama’s rating has fallen below 50 percent in every one of those states — always a warning sign for an incumbent. In only one state, Iowa, is his approval rating, 48 percent, higher than his disapproval rating, 45 percent.
The key point missing from the article, however, is that Obama turned out a massive Democrat vote in those states, garnering 3.04 million more votes than John Kerry received in 2004, while McCain failed to turn out the Republican vote, receiving nearly 200,000 fewer votes than George Bush did in 2004.
Obama is extremely vulnerable in 2012 for a host of reasons, not the least of which already is enthusiasm.
