Seen here:
Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. gross domestic product contracted by around 30%.
Where the hell does that come from?
In 1929 GDP was $103.6 billion. By the end of 1933 GDP had declined to $56.4 billion. That's a decline of over 45 percent, not "around 30 percent."
Matthew Lynn for Marketwatch.com is talking about "the buying opportunity of a lifetime" at the link.
Really? With the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 20.43?
Really? With the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 20.43?
The buying opportunity of my lifetime was between 1973 and 1983, when the Shiller p/e ratio rattled around 10, fifty percent lower than it is today. And it just so happens that I didn't have any money to invest in those years like I do today because of a lifetime of saving.
Not even March 2009 was the buying opportunity of a lifetime, when the Shiller p/e fell to around 15.
If you are wise you will keep your powder dry until you see the whites in their eyes, so to speak, when we get to 10. But even then, can you live with yourself if you pull the trigger and then a total market collapse like 1929 brings the p/e closer to 5?
Well, can ya?
Remember the one true thing of Keynesianism: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. A decline from 10 to 5 can wipe out 50 percent of what you have.
There is nothing which cannot repeat itself, because human nature does not change.
Well, can ya?
Remember the one true thing of Keynesianism: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. A decline from 10 to 5 can wipe out 50 percent of what you have.
There is nothing which cannot repeat itself, because human nature does not change.
