3Q2026
Most of this oil is now going to Europe and the U.S. instead of Asia because of the extra time and shipping cost for going around Africa.
The UAE is now in the catbird seat for shipping oil to Asia, at least until Iran decides to attack Fujairah.
Saudi Arabia ramps up oil exports through Mediterranean pipeline to avoid attacks in Red Sea
... Oil exports from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir have more than doubled to about 2.3 million barrels per day in August compared to around 1 million bpd last month, according to data provided by the trade intelligence firm Kpler. The majority of those exports are Saudi crude, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. ...
Saudi exports from Yanbu through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait were down nearly 90% to 1.3 million barrels during the week of Aug. 3, compared with 11 million barrels for the week of July 20 when the Houthis declared the embargo, according to Kpler data. ...
It appears that there is nothing extra coming out of the Red Sea anymore, diverted by Saudi Arabia west to Yanbu.
UAE moved 0.95 mbpd through Hormuz in July 2026, but 2.28 mbpd out of Fujairah which doesn't go through Hormuz, which would be in addition to the now ~6 million through Hormuz, yielding 8.28 mbpd approximately, as we speak.
That's 62% off the pre-war level of ~22 mbpd out of the Middle East.
Trump not vanquishing the Houthis in 2025 is America's chickens comin' home to roost.
2Q2026
BAM transits fell in JMIC Update 075 to 10.0/day since the Houthi Rebels announced on July 20 a blockade of Saudi shipping through the chokepoint. SE traffic fell to 4.0/day.
A product tanker is at anchor in the Red Sea off the coast of Saudi Arabia after it was attacked by the Houthis on July 22.
Professional observers report some tankers abandoning their runs SE and turning back NW while Chinese VLCCs apparently are being green-lighted through despite loading with Saudi oil at Yanbu.
VLCCs fully laden cannot transit the Suez Canal due to size constraints and must partially off-load before transiting and then re-load on the Mediterranean side of the canal.
From JMIC Update 074:
... According to regional reporting, Iran has instructed the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route should the United States strike Iranian power infrastructure. Sources close to the group stated that the Houthis have completed preparations to attack shipping, including the deployment of missiles and drones positioned near Bab el-Mandeb. ...
Iran’s threats against this Red Sea choke point are a big vulnerability for the oil market
... Oil and product exports through the Bab el-Mandeb nearly doubled to 7.2 million barrels per day in April compared with 3.9 million bpd in February before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to data provided by Kpler.
The interactive chart by Kpler in the story is a shipwreck.
The data is in millions of barrels per day passing through, as explained in the story. Unfortunately you don't see "million" anywhere in the chart.
What you see is 5.2B, 7.7B, 2.9B, etc., which could easily be misinterpreted as either "barrels" or "billion".
The proper designation should be MMb/d or perhaps MMB/D in the chart, but maybe just leave that out entirely next time because it's already too busy and just put "million" in the subtitle before "barrels" and leave it 5.2, 7.7, 2.9, etc. in the chart.
U.S. intercepts Iran missiles targeting American forces in Kuwait: CENTCOM
Treasury yields rise after Iran reportedly stops communication with U.S.
U.S. oil jumps more than 7% on report Iran will halt talks with U.S. and completely block Hormuz
U.S. oil prices jumped nearly 8% Monday, after Iranian state media said Tehran will halt talks with the U.S. and completely close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. ...
Tehran will completely block the Strait of Hormuz and open other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Tasnim reported. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. ...
And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.
BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.
SoH transits:
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war
... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...
The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.
The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.
There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update.
BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.
Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full.
SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.
The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.
There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.
It is what it is.
 |
| From JMIC 47 |
 |
| From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!) |
Strait of Hormuz 1.57/day.
BAM tanker transits aren't even up to 2022's average of 30/day. The crisis of the oil trade is not being significantly ameliorated by Red Sea operations.
Estimates continue to put 5 million barrels per day leaving Yanbu, much of it heading to buyers in east Asia.
Fujairah in the UAE exports shy of 2 million barrels per day, also to the east.
Iran's exports in April are said to be shy of 1 million barrels per day.
Kuwait exported nothing.
Iraq exported maybe 0.131 million barrels per day.
So 8.1 million barrels per day in April?
21.0 million barrels per day left the region in 2022.
Update 5/18/26:
IEA estimates 8 mb/day bypassing Strait of Hormuz, flows still far below pre-war levels.
... In the Red Sea, attacks on shipping that began in 2023 forced many vessels to reroute around Africa rather than use the Suez Canal. More than two years on, transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti remain stuck at roughly half their pre-attack level. ...
More.
