CA-13 flipped Republican in this election, as did CA-27 and CA-45.
Republicans flipped no seats in California, and nationally Democrats picked up one seat on net and the GOP lost one on net.
Republicans have the same razor thin US House majority in the next Congress that they have now.
Bye Bye Red Wave.
The margin of victory is 613 votes.
CA-13 remains uncalled, so GOP HOUSE 220 v DEM HOUSE 214.
GOP control of the US House at 218 would be secure, if it weren't for Trump poaching from this field to populate his government.
Not. Very. Bright.
It also tells you that the poached aren't very bright either: Stefanik, Waltz, Gaetz, and Rubio from the US Senate also.
Special elections are required for the House district vacancies. The governor of Florida can appoint Rubio's replacement, but that is only temporary.
Democrats said electing Trump would be a return to chaos.
They were correct about that.
Except Matt Gaetz is in that 219 and he has just resigned tonight. So 218.
Stefanik is in that 218 and she is taking the UN Ambassador job. When matters. A lot.
Waltz is in that 218 and he is going to be National Security Adviser. When matters. A lot.
The GOP really needs all three seats below just to get back to 221 now, not 222 as before, just one seat better than the current majority. And CA-45 looks more and more iffy to me as the count continues.
Trump is crazy playing chicken with the House majority in this way, and even crazier appointing Gaetz to Attorney General.
Gaetz will not be confirmed.
Trump's disrespect for the House outcome is a terrible beginning to his second term.
Kari Lake, the losing Republican, quit her TV anchor job in 2021, which she had from 1999, to run for governor in 2022 and lost to the Democrat, and predictably has lost again in the race for US Senate in 2024.
Over time she has been a Republican, an independent, a Democrat, and a Republican again.
Ciscomani in AZ-6 from 49.2 to 49.1
Garcia in CA-27 from 49.6 to 49.1
Steel in CA-45 from 51.3 to 51.1
Republicans currently lead in 5 of the 10 undecided races. If they win all those, they'll have 222 in the House.
But of course subtract Stefanik, and you are left with 221 GOP to advance President Trump's agenda in the first 100 days when 218 are needed.
Again, this was not a Republican "sweep", "a great realignment", a MAGA movement revolution, or any of the rubbish we're hearing from the cheering section.
This is just more of the same on the House side, where the GOP majority is 220.
Ten points about The Swamp.
Seven points about The War on the Drug Cartels.
Trump's saying all this stuff and we don't even know yet if Republicans will win the US House, where they have 214 seats as of right now and lead narrowly in 8 undecided races. If they win them all they'll have 222 seats, with 218 needed for the majority.
If not, well that'll be the end of all ambition, now won't it?
222 at best is a very narrow margin to accomplish anything anyway, a mere continuation of the status quo where Republicans in the House must tread lightly to keep the caucus unified with a very similarly sized narrow majority (220).
What kind of sweep was this? Once again the Trump movement . . . isn't.
It would be easy to call this stuff hubris from Trump. Let's just say he still hasn't learned anything about how to accomplish anything of relatively permanent value. He has NO priorities when everything is a priority. He is, once again, unserious.
The Senate will be in Republican hands, so we'll at least get more judicial appointments who might advance traditional American principles of law and order.
The scuttlebutt is that the first agenda item in Congress will be making Trump's expiring tax reform permanent.
I can imagine him having to waste the entire first year on this. He'd be better off quickly settling for its extension for another ten years under reconciliation rules, and then move along smartly to immigration and energy reforms before the midterms are upon us in 2026, after which he'll be the lamest of lame ducks.
If there's any hope of boosting GDP and improving everyone's pocketbook they've got to make energy reform the priority. And mere immigration enforcement solves an untold number of other problems which bedevil the country, like illegal drugs, crime, and social spending.
Spending bills will come as they will, and should simply aim to starve the federal government of money to shrink it, as could have been the case last time but nothing changed. The beast grows naturally because permanent spending programs are indexed to inflation. That isn't going to be stopped. Growing the economy to pay the bills is therefore job one.
I'm expecting very little positive from this lot, but I do hope J. D. Vance will emerge at the end of it to take us to a better future.
Democrats who say they fear Trump because he's an authoritarian are absolutely comic. Watch for rogue judges to hamstring him just like last time, and Trump will bluster and fume and things will simply muddle along.
But, of course, unforeseen events like wars have a way of intruding and making mooks of us all. Let's hope Trump can finally make a deal to end and prevent them.
The Detroit News has Republicans with 57 seats so far in the Michigan State House, Democrats with 45, 8 undecided.
Even if all the undecided go Democrat, that's a 4-seat majority for the Republicans.
