Uncalled US House race CA-45 is suddenly all tied up when the Republican was slightly ahead 24hrs ago

 

tonight

24hrs ago

Uncalled US House race CA-13 shows the Democrat surging against the Republican in the last 24hrs

 

tonight

24hrs ago

Uncalled US House race AK-1 shows slight tightening in favor of the Democrat in the last 24hrs

 

tonight

24hrs ago

Republicans have won 219 seats in the US House so far, and these three of six remaining undecided races are their best shot for 222

Except Matt Gaetz is in that 219 and he has just resigned tonight. So 218.

Stefanik is in that 218 and she is taking the UN Ambassador job. When matters. A lot.

Waltz is in that 218 and he is going to be National Security Adviser. When matters. A lot.

The GOP really needs all three seats below just to get back to 221 now, not 222 as before, just one seat better than the current majority. And CA-45 looks more and more iffy to me as the count continues.

Trump is crazy playing chicken with the House majority in this way, and even crazier appointing Gaetz to Attorney General.

Gaetz will not be confirmed.

Trump's disrespect for the House outcome is a terrible beginning to his second term.

 

The Arizona US Senate race has been called overnight for the Democrats, giving them 47 seats in the new Congress

 Kari Lake, the losing Republican, quit her TV anchor job in 2021, which she had from 1999, to run for governor in 2022 and lost to the Democrat, and predictably has lost again in the race for US Senate in 2024.

Over time she has been a Republican, an independent, a Democrat, and a Republican again.

Undecided House races are proceeding at a glacial pace, but since yesterday three Republicans have each seen their vote shares contract

Ciscomani in AZ-6 from 49.2 to 49.1

Garcia in CA-27 from 49.6 to 49.1

Steel in CA-45 from 51.3 to 51.1

 

Republicans currently lead in 5 of the 10 undecided races. If they win all those, they'll have 222 in the House.

But of course subtract Stefanik, and you are left with 221 GOP to advance President Trump's agenda in the first 100 days when 218 are needed. 

Again, this was not a Republican "sweep", "a great realignment", a MAGA movement revolution, or any of the rubbish we're hearing from the cheering section.

This is just more of the same on the House side, where the GOP majority is 220.

Donald Trump is already hard at work making long lists of all the things he's not going to accomplish as president, which he'll foolishly fritter away his time on

 Ten points about The Swamp.

Seven points about The War on the Drug Cartels.

Trump's saying all this stuff and we don't even know yet if Republicans will win the US House, where they have 214 seats as of right now and lead narrowly in 8 undecided races. If they win them all they'll have 222 seats, with 218 needed for the majority.

If not, well that'll be the end of all ambition, now won't it?

222 at best is a very narrow margin to accomplish anything anyway, a mere continuation of the status quo where Republicans in the House must tread lightly to keep the caucus unified with a very similarly sized narrow majority (220).

What kind of sweep was this? Once again the Trump movement . . . isn't.

It would be easy to call this stuff hubris from Trump. Let's just say he still hasn't learned anything about how to accomplish anything of relatively permanent value. He has NO priorities when everything is a priority. He is, once again, unserious.

The Senate will be in Republican hands, so we'll at least get more judicial appointments who might advance traditional American principles of law and order.

The scuttlebutt is that the first agenda item in Congress will be making Trump's expiring tax reform permanent.

I can imagine him having to waste the entire first year on this. He'd be better off quickly settling for its extension for another ten years under reconciliation rules, and then move along smartly to immigration and energy reforms before the midterms are upon us in 2026, after which he'll be the lamest of lame ducks.

If there's any hope of boosting GDP and improving everyone's pocketbook they've got to make energy reform the priority. And mere immigration enforcement solves an untold number of other problems which bedevil the country, like illegal drugs, crime, and social spending.

Spending bills will come as they will, and should simply aim to starve the federal government of money to shrink it, as could have been the case last time but nothing changed. The beast grows naturally because permanent spending programs are indexed to inflation. That isn't going to be stopped. Growing the economy to pay the bills is therefore job one.

I'm expecting very little positive from this lot, but I do hope J. D. Vance will emerge at the end of it to take us to a better future.

Democrats who say they fear Trump because he's an authoritarian are absolutely comic. Watch for rogue judges to hamstring him just like last time, and Trump will bluster and fume and things will simply muddle along.

But, of course, unforeseen events like wars have a way of intruding and making mooks of us all. Let's hope Trump can finally make a deal to end and prevent them.

Nevada has been called for Biden, but he's still short of 270

 

AP rescinds two called races for the Republicans in NC-9 and CA-21, Democrats could finish with net pickups of 41 in the US House

North Carolina House race too close to call amid fraud inquiry:

The Associated Press has uncalled the race, as state authorities examine allegations against Republican Mark Harris' campaign. ... The North Carolina contest marks the second time this week the AP has rescinded one of its election-night race calls. On Monday night, the wire service — which supplies election results and projections to news organizations all over the country — said it no longer considered Republican Rep. David Valadao the winner of a congressional race in California’s Central Valley, after his Democratic opponent, TJ Cox, inched ahead of Valadao in the state’s protracted vote count. As of early Friday, Cox’s lead in the California race stood at 591 votes, with the counties planning to certify their results next week.

Meanwhile NY-22, as expected, became a Democrat pickup as did UT-4. The GOP held on in TX-23 and GA-7.

Real Clear Politics still shows NC-9 today as a GOP hold giving Republicans 200 in the new House, which is incorrect, so the math should show the new House at Democrats 234, Republicans 199, with CA-21 and NC-9 to be re-adjudicated.

So far, Democrats have picked up 42 seats, Republicans 3 seats, for a net Democrat pickup of 39 (so also Real Clear Politics).

Final Uncalled House Race Update: NY-1 Remains a Democrat Hold

The Republican challenger has conceded to the Democrat incumbent. The story is here.

The net gain for Republicans in the US House in 2010 remains at 63, putting the Republicans in the majority with 242 seats to the Democrats 193.

No one foresaw such an eventuality two years ago when the Democrats decisively swept Republicans aside on Obama's coattails and acquired an overwhelming majority numbering 256 seats. That tide wasn't completely reversed in this election, but for a party deemed dead for all intents and purposes the comeback is a remarkable thumping, thanks in part to the activism of the Tea Party movement, which was created spontaneously out of thin air in February and March of 2009 in response to Democrat stimulus spending and mortgage modification programs.

The battle to stop and reverse Obama's programs designed to transform American culture and institutions has now been joined.

Beware Obamao's red guards.

Uncalled House Race Update: CA-11 Remains a Democrat Hold

So says Real Clear Politics tonight.

But the hold is not by much, and the Republican challenger, who is down by just under 3000 votes, has yet to concede.

Jerry McNerney, the incumbent Democrat, looks to have benefitted by a third party challenge to the Republican David Harmer's right. A Constitution Party candidate siphoned-off about 5% of the vote from the Republican, over 9000 votes, more than enough to have made all the difference.

With one race not yet called, NY-1, the Republicans have a net gain of 63 in the US House.

Uncalled House Races Update: CA-20 and NY-25

Real Clear Politics is showing CA-20 to be a Democrat hold tonight. The Hill says incumbent Democrat Jim Costa had picked up 3000 votes in the interim since the election, even though as of November 9 the totals showed Costa had trailed the Republican challenger Vidak by 27 votes. Vidak apparently had not yet conceded.

RCP also shows NY-25 to be a GOP pick up over incumbent Democrat Maffei, an Obama freshman, who conceded to the Republican challenger Buerkle after Buerkle's tally was trimmed only by roughly a hundred votes from the 659 vote lead she had as of November 10.

So the net Republican gain now stands at 63 with two races still not called: NY-1 and CA-11.

Uncalled House Races Update: Republican Wins in IL-8

CNN.com reports here that the incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean has conceded to the Republican challenger Walsh in the IL-8 House district race.

It appears that Walsh won by fewer than 500 votes in the race where a third party Green candidate siphoned-off 3% of the vote on the Democrat's left.

That would give the Republicans a net gain of 62 seats in the US House, with four races still to be decided: CA-11, CA-20, NY-25 and NY-1.

Real Clear Politics also shows IL-8 a Republican pick-up overnight. 

Uncalled House Races Update: Republican Challenger in KY-6 Concedes

As reported here, the Democrat Chandler holds on to his seat, winning by less than 700 votes.

The Republican net gain continues at 61 seats, with 5 uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, NY-25, and NY-1.

Uncalled House Race Update: VA-11 a Democrat Hold

Real Clear Politics has been showing this race a Democrat hold since yesterday.

Politics Daily shows the incumbent Democrat Connolly with just 920 votes more than the Republican challenger Fimian.

Three third party candidates could be blamed for the Republican's loss. The Independent garnered 1,838 votes, the Libertarian 1,381 votes, and the Green 959 votes. All together those votes represented barely 1.75% of all votes cast.

Net Republican gains remain at 61 with 6 races still not called: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25 and NY-1.

Undecided Races Update: WA-2 Stays Democrat

Real Clear Politics shows the race as a Democrat hold this morning.

Politics Daily shows just 11 precincts left to be counted and 98% of the vote in with incumbent Democrat Larsen ahead of Republican challenger Koster by almost 5,500 votes.

That leaves the Republicans with a net gain of 61 seats in the US House, with 7 races still not called: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25, VA-11 and NY-1.

Of 8 More Close Uncalled House Races, 3 Look to go Republican

With a net gain to date of 61 seats, 3 more defeats of Democrat incumbents look possible.

Bloomberg.com reports similarly here:

“It’s expected that Republicans will hold on and pick up a total of 63 or 64 seats, though recounts can occasionally produce a surprise,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Vote totals taken from PoliticsDaily.com show Republican Vidak overturning Democrat Costa in CA-20 50.8% to 49.2%.

In IL-8, the Republican Walsh looks to overtake Democrat Melissa Bean 48.5% to 48.3% thanks to Green Party Scheurer siphoning off 3.2% on the Democrat incumbent's left. This was conservative Republican Phil Crane's old seat.

And in NY-25 the Republican Buerkle has a similarly razor thin lead over incumbent Democrat Maffei 50.2% to 49.8%.

Other races don't look as promising for Republicans, close as they are.

A constitutionalist third party candidate in CA-11 has managed 5% of the vote in a race leaning to the incumbent Democrat McNerney over the Republican Harmer by just .3%.

Incumbent Democrat Chandler in KY-6 has a .2% lead over Republican challenger Barr.

Three third parties in VA-11 have bled off 1.8% of the vote in favor of the Democrat incumbent Connolly vs. Republican Fimian who trails by .4% of the vote. Libertarian and Green parties strike again.

WA-2 is a different matter with 95% of the precincts reporting because of voting by mail. The Democrat Larsen is ahead of Republican Koster 50.7% to 49.3%.

The race in NY-1 has looked like Democrat incumbent Bishop's over Republican Altshuler 51% to 49% until the report of a closer count in the Bloomberg story. The Republican says many absentee ballots have not yet been counted. 

Net Republican Pickups 61

Republican pickups number 64 gross, but the net must subtract Democrat pickups, which were 3: the at-large seat in Delaware vacated by primary defeated Mike Castle in the Senate race, Abercrombie's seat in Hawaii only very temporarily occupied by a Republican, and Cao's seat in Louisiana, who lost as the only Republican voting for Obamacare.

So net 61 Republican pickups, as shown at Real Clear Politics, with 8 races still not called.

Uncalled Races Update

Looks like NY-1 all of a sudden goes into the undecided category, with Real Clear Politics this morning showing Bishop vs. Altshuler at 50-50.

The others are (Democrat vs. Republican):

CA-11, McNerney vs. Harmer, 48-47

CA-20, Costa vs. Vidak, 49-51

IL-8, Bean vs. Walsh, 48-49

KY-6, Chandler vs. Barr, 50-50

NY-25, Maffei vs. Buerkle, 51-49

VA-11, Connolly vs. Fimian, 49-49

WA-2, Larsen vs. Koster, 50-50.

So we're back to 8, not 7, uncalled. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Jesse Kelly Loses a Heartbreaker in Arizona 8th

See his remarks here.

A third party Libertarian candidate bled off over 10,000 votes to allow the liberal incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords to win by less than 4000 votes. Thanks a lot, pest.

That leaves 7 House races still not called. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Better luck next time, Marine.