LOL, my progressive neighbor lady was trying to set me straight on COVID-19 the other day by insisting that the case fatality rate was 3.4%

Which was true . . . way back in March 2020.

She's still using talking points from over a year ago, which she cuts and pastes into her emails.

The lights are on, but no one is home. 

I liked her better not knowing this, alas.

For the US to date the cfr is 1.6% and globally to date it's 2.05%, per Johns Hopkins this morning.

Notice, by the way, the imprecision in the popular press below, which was widespread at the time and even came out of Anthony Fauci's own mouth, mixing up case fatality rate and mortality rate. Mortality rate is usually expressed in deaths/100k/year, case fatality rate as a percentage of cases dying, which fluctuates constantly, obviously.

The cfr has been in steady decline, and consequently the mortality rate for the second year of the pandemic is going to be much lower than for the first year.

You can repeal the 19th Amendment, but you can't repeal the hysteria.

 

America thinks it is done with the Forever Wars, but the Forever Wars are not done with America

 

In 2020 global debt to global GDP soared to 356%

Global debt finished 4Q at $281 trillion:  3.56x = $281 trillion, so x = $78.93 trillion global GDP.

US GDP in 2020 was $20.9 trillion, TCMDO was $83.49 trillion (almost 400%).

What could go wrong, right? You are fully invested in stonks, amirite?!

The problem is that the global corporate sector has been caught in the COVID-19 shock with unprecedented levels of financial leverage; global debt on non-financial corporations was $71 trillion at the end of 2018, representing 93% of global GDP.

 

 

 

You fools who won't have enough electricity for air conditioning this summer have only yourselves to blame

From the story:

Peak temperatures are forecast to reach 115 degrees Fahrenheit (46°C) in interior California through the week, according to the state's electric grid operator, which warned the biggest supply deficit could occur on Thursday after the sun goes down and solar power is no longer available. ...

On Wednesday, solar power was providing about 30% of California ISO's supply, and the grid warned that it would be unlikely to be able to rely on additional supplies from other states due to the extreme heat hitting much of the Western United States.

The ISO was currently getting 13% of its power from other states. The ISO has said it expects to have about 50,734 MW of supply available this summer, but some of that comes from solar.

102,000 MW of coal-fired electric capacity was retired from 2010-2019, over 38,000 MW alone in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Another 17,000 MW is scheduled to be retired by 2025. 

The EIA blamed "flat electricity demand growth" during the decade for the retirements.

It should have blamed Obama, under whom real GDP grew at a rate worse than during the Great Depression.

But YOU elected him.

Twice.

 

 

If the S&P 500 regressed to trend level tomorrow, it would fall to about 1551 according to the geeks

Think of it as fair value.

Another way to get there: 

GDP(63) = S&P fair value

$22.061 trillion x 63 = 1390

That formula worked for most of the post-war up until the Trump era. The fancy regression analysis done by the geeks always came up pretty close to the same result, but not lately.

Still another way to look at it:

S&P 500 4230 / GDP 22.061 = 192.

That's an elevated ratio which was common before 1929, but we've never seen such levels in the post-war.

Sum ting funny goin' on. 

FOIA'd Fauci email shows his top people informed him 31 Jan 2020 that the coronavirus looked engineered and was inconsistent with evolutionary theory

In other words, it might have come out of a lab, not out of nature by crossing from bats to some unknown animal intermediary found at the Wuhan wet market.

 

LOL, US C19 case positivity has risen to 7.6% from 7.0% in a week, but now some experts are moving the goalposts saying positivity doesn't matter anymore, hospitalizations do

 

All righty then!

C19 hospitalizations are up 2.5k over the period.