The death wish, among other things, puts the libertarian on the side of liberalism, not conservatism

 

LOL Mike "Mish" Shedlock goes full Keynes on C19 vaccines

Israel's high vaccination rate isn't high enough. The country jumped out ahead of all other countries on vaccines, and 78% of eligible Israelis over 12 years old are vaccinated.

More.

Mish is a long time popularizer of the Austrian School of Economics.

Wild guess: First US patient with coronavirus who has now recovered (Snohomish County, Washington man) is East Asian

The Snohomish County man went to an urgent care clinic on Jan. 19 with a cough and fever. He told the staff he had seen a health alert about the outbreak in China – that he had returned four days earlier from a trip to visit family in Wuhan.

Story.

Since the 1980s the share of job seekers relocating has fallen from more than a third to ten percent now

The Wall Street Journal reports via Mish, here:

The share of job seekers relocating for new employment has fallen dramatically since the late 1980s, when more than a third moved to take new opportunities elsewhere, according to surveys from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. In the 1990s, job-related moves ebbed and flowed between 20% and 35%, then fell below 20% after 2000. Roughly 10% of job seekers relocated for new opportunities in the first half of this year, Challenger said.

Mish drinks the unemployment koolaid

Just phonin' it in these days.

Laws restrain only the lawful

Seen here in the comments.

Another mass murder malapropism: Save your best wishes for Christmas and New Year please

Laugh of the Day: "Maybe this will chase all the Katrina refugees back to New Orleans"

Seen here in the comments.

34 lyin' cheatin' Muslim convenience store owners and a guy named "Dale" indicted for conspiracy

From the story here:

A federal grand jury has indicted 35 store owners on federal conspiracy charges for trafficking contraband cigarettes, distributing controlled substances and money laundering . . .:

Mohammed Almuttan, aka Abu Ali, 35, St. Louis, MO

Rami Almuttan, aka Abu Louay, 33, St. Louis, MO

Hisham Mutan, aka Abu Mohamed, 41, St. Louis, MO

Saddam Mutan, aka Abu Ali, 24, St. Louis, MO

Mazin Abdelsalam, aka Abu Mohammad, 38, St. Louis, MO

Najeh Muhana, aka Abu Yazan, 41, Fairview, NJ

Fares Muhana, aka Abu Yamama, 40, Cliffside Park, NJ

Ayoub Qaiymah, aka Abu Faysal, 23, Richmond, VA

Naser Abid, 23, Chicago, IL

Yadgar Barzanji, aka Abu Siver, 47, St. Louis, MO

Wafaa Alwan, 50, St. Louis, MO

Ahmed Abuali, aka Bazilla, 31, North Bergen, NJ

Mohammed Kayed, aka Mohammed Fayez, 21, Clifton, NJ

Momen Abuali, 20, Little Ferry, NJ

Firat Sevindik, 42, Cliffside Park, NJ

Mohammed Mustafa, 30, North Bergen, NJ

Mohammad Karashqah, Abu Yazid, 47, North Bergen, NJ

Fayez Sheikha, 46, Mishawaka, IN

Jihad Shihadeh, Abu Malik, 58, Chicago Ridge, IL

Ismael Abadi, 57, Carol Stream, IL

Abed Hamed, Abed Fawzan, 39, Greenville, NC

Maher Hamed, Abu Alazara, 33, Swansea, IL

Abdel Adi, 25, Oak Lawn, IL

Muhanad Khatib, Abu Alamin, 36, Chicago, IL

Eyad Awad, 38, Chicago, IL

Dale Garbin, 60, Kankakee, IL

Hayder Al Fatli, 40, St. Louis, MO

Kutlay Guvener, 35, Chicago, IL

Saad Al Mallak, 30, Dittmer, MO

Hassan Abdelatif, 29, Collinsville, IL

Mahajir Naz, 32, St. Louis, MO

Talal Abuajaj, 23, St. Louis, MO

Basem Hamdan, aka Abu Ramiz, 57, St. Louis, MO

Zainal Saleh, 29, St. Louis, MO and

Ibrahim Awad, 39, St. Louis, MO

Protesters blocked entry to the inaugural at C Street, depressing attendance: Police just let it happen

Reported here:

Police, Secret Service officials, and other law enforcement personnel were all seen turning away from the protesters rather than attempting to pass through the human barrier protesters assembled on C Street. Law enforcement officials present at the protests mainly attempted to break up skirmishes that broke out between the protesters and those looking to get to the inauguration and parade.

ECRI notices what I noticed in September: Whites missed the job boat under Obama, have fewer jobs than nine years ago

My post was about full-time jobs, here in September. Asians, blacks and Hispanics all had net gains in full-time jobs from their respective 2007-2008 peaks through the second quarter of 2016, from 0.2 million to 1.5 million while whites still suffered from huge losses in full-time totaling 4.4 million. On a percentage basis minorities' gains ranged from 2% to 23% while white losses were 7%, the impact of which was so huge because whites represent 64% of the population. 

Mish's comment on the ECRI story here was this:

Minorities fared far better at job gains on a percentage basis than whites. 

While the ECRI story here concluded this:

Whites actually have fewer jobs than nine years ago, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more. 

Democrat Marissa Mayer of Yahoo mishandles your email but makes Hillary look like a piker

She's just as good at the stonewalling, though. The hack of 500 million accounts was way back in 2014.

Story here and everywhere.

That lying bitch Hillary on headers last night: None of my emails had a 'classified material' header

That's because she made sure they were removed, disproving her claim to the FBI that she was ignorant of what the markings meant.

(See here for Hillary's bald-faced lying to a US Navy veteran at last night's Commander in Chief forum.)

When Jake Sullivan complained in 2011 that he couldn't send something to Hillary because of a classified material header, she told him to remove it and send it non-secure, as recounted by HotAir already in early January here, where the email is reproduced. It took her all of four minutes to commit a crime.

Why are we still rehashing this? Hillary should be under indictment, not running for office.

Hot Air:

In a thread from June 2011, Hillary exchanges e-mails with Jake Sullivan, then her deputy chief of staff and now her campaign foreign-policy adviser, in which she impatiently waits for a set of talking points. When Sullivan tells her that the source is having trouble with the secure fax, Hillary then orders Sullivan to have the data stripped of its markings and sent through a non-secure channel. ... “If they can’t, turn into nonpaper w no identifying heading and send nonsecure.” That’s an order to violate the laws handling classified material. There is no other way to read that demand. Regardless of whether or not Sullivan complied, this demolishes Hillary’s claim to be ignorant of marking issues, as well as strongly suggests that the other thousand-plus instances where this did occur likely came under her direction.

Doug Short makes our point: Part-time surged because of the recession, not because of ObamaCare

Here:

"With regard to Obamacare and part-time employment, the surge in part-time employment was triggered by the recession, not by the Affordable Care Act, as the next chart clearly illustrates."

---------------------------------------------------------

After studying the issue since 2010 we first began to express doubts about the meme that ObamaCare part-timed the country in July of 2013, here.

In August 2013 here we realized a part-timing trend, to be real, would have to show up in the hours data and wasn't.

By September 2013 here we were calling the meme a myth, and here we identified the part-time statistics as incapable of capturing such a trend due to the high bar set by the government definition of part-time as less than 35 hours worked.

In October 2013 here we blamed the part-time explosion on the recession.

In February 2014 we noted here that The Atlantic had finally caught on.

Mish started to catch on in September 2014, here.

Now Doug Short joins the party.

Hooray.

I still want my Pulitzer.

On GDP Mish sounds just like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard five years ago

Here is Mish in 2015:

"Effectively we have borrowed current growth from the future. Looking ahead, growth surprises will be predominantly on the downside for years to come."

Here is Ambrose in 2010:

"Debt draws forward prosperity, which leads to powerful overhang effects that are not properly incorporated into Fed models. That is the key reason why Ben Bernanke’s Fed was caught flat-footed when the crisis hit, and kept misjudging it until the events started to spin out of control."

Mish finally figures out why the part-timing trend caused by ObamaCare doesn't show up in the stats . . . yet

Here:

The BLS defines part time as less than 35 hours. Low wage industries had a lot of part-timers working 32 hours.

Under Obamacare, the threshold of part-time jobs is 30 hours. Obama made that change on purpose to force more businesses to offer healthcare. 

Instead, busiunesses [sic] cut hours. It was the hours of the already part-timers that got cut, and that explains why there was no spike in part time employment.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Average hours worked overall isn't affected much by part-timers getting their hours cut, since the part-time portion of the workforce is so small to begin with, about 18%.

On an average annual basis, however, average hours worked overall haven't made it above the 35 hour full-time threshold since 1984. Larger forces have been at work to drive average hours down, mainly social revolution leading to the addition of large numbers of women to the workforce in the 1970s, but also a free trade revolution leading to offshoring of manufacturing. The libertarian rout of America has been terrible for its workers.

The verdict on what ObamaCare may do to hours is still not in, however, and won't be for many years because so much of its implementation has been delayed by the regime itself, notably the employer mandate. For large firms mandates do not kick in until 2015, and for medium size firms 2016. 

About market timing on the way down, Mish can be very wise

Here:

History suggests bear markets will destroy many bears, some by turning bullish at the top, others by turning bullish way too soon after a correction.

Watch those valuation measures on the way down, folks, be patient, and keep your powder dry. 

Attention Mish: Dump Google Translate and learn a second language already

From the story here:

The participants were given an intelligence test in 1947 at the age of 11 and were retested in their early 70s, between 2008 and 2010. Of the participants, 262 said they were able to communicate in at least one language other than English. Of those, 195 learned the second language before the age of 18, while 65 learned the language after this age.

Researchers found that those who spoke two or more languages had significantly better cognitive abilities in later life, compared to what would be predicted from their performance in the tests at age 11.

Junk thought from Mish on labor force, employment and population

Here:

Since April 2008, the population in age group 25-54 declined 0.8%, but the labor force declined 3.6%, and employment declined 4.6%. ...

In the core age 25-54 age group, the population is down 1,053,000 but employment is down a whopping 4,614,000.

Thus, in the 25-54 age group, roughly 3,561,000 people are not working who should be working. The figure is higher if you include other age groups.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Mish is looking at the issue from a zero-sum perspective which forgets that the age groups have changed in composition over time. Of course employment levels are down. The question is where did it all go, and why did it go there.

The 25-54 age group was full of Baby Boomers in 2008 who in 2014 are now in the 55+ category where the employment level has continued to grow and grow despite the recession. What has happened is that the Baby Boomers in the 25-54 age group have been replaced by subsequent demographic tranches bringing up the rear which were much less numerous because birth rates to Baby Boomers dropped dramatically compared to their parents' era. As a consequence no age group will ever reproduce labor force sizes which match what they were as the Baby Boomers grew up. In fact, the size of the 25-54 group will continue to decline for five more years until all the Baby Boomers cross over to the 55+ group.

The supposed four million+ deficit in employment in the 25-54 age group today can be explained entirely by demographics.

I presented the data here, concluding:

"It appears therefore that the fall-off in the employment level of those 25-54 can be explained entirely by the aging of their cohort in which many millions over the last seven years have moved on to the next level, and by the failure of the younger members of this group to bring up the rear in terms of their aggregate numbers because there just weren't enough of them born. The reason for the decline of their employment level is therefore structural, not economic, and will continue to be so for the next five years.

"Indeed, workers aged 55 and older have escaped a decline in their employment level. There are in fact 6.9 million more working at this age right now in 2014 than there were exactly seven years ago, which is what one would expect from the data. The Baby Boom is simply aging and continuing to work as it did before, and it has a lot of room left to run."

Jim Cramer reads fellow Democrat Tim Geithner and suddenly discovers frugality: both men are only five years behind the curve

THE MARKET IS UP 11% SINCE CRAMER SAID SELL IN SEPTEMBER 2013

Jim Cramer, quoted here:

"I think America's gone frugal. Just like our parents, or grandparents, or even great-grandparents changed their patterns of behavior somewhat radically after the Great Depression, I'm thinking we've changed ours, too."

Here's a newsflash for you Jim: America went frugal already more than five years ago. Why do you think things are the way they are?

See Mish's "The Age of Frugality" here, from October 19, 2008, which noted that frugality had finally (!) made the cover of a magazine after he'd been talking about it since at least March:

"Frugality has finally made front page. BusinessWeek is commenting on The New Age of Frugality."

Cramer thinks there's a new opportunity in the "new" frugality. Remember, this is coming from the same guy who told you in October 2008 to get out of the market if you needed your money in the next five years. If you took his advice, you missed one of the most incredible bull markets in the history of investing. Unfortunately, being five years behind Jim doesn't realize we've already reaped the opportunity of the new frugality.

The future?

I'm still with Chris Whalen and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: DECADES of economic shrinkage ahead. We've already enjoyed the prosperity which the debt we racked up provided. Civilizationally speaking: It's time to pay for all that.

Sorry old boy.

Unnumber'd Maladies each Joint invade,

Lay Siege to Life and press the dire Blockade;

But unextinguish'd Av'rice still remains,

And dreaded Losses aggravate his Pains;

He turns, with anxious Heart and cripled Hands,

His Bonds of Debt, and Mortgages of Lands;

Or views his Coffers with suspicious Eyes,

Unlocks his Gold, and counts it till he dies.

-- Samuel Johnson, 1749