Sunday, June 6, 2021

If the S&P 500 regressed to trend level tomorrow, it would fall to about 1551 according to the geeks

Think of it as fair value.

Another way to get there: 

GDP(63) = S&P fair value

$22.061 trillion x 63 = 1390

That formula worked for most of the post-war up until the Trump era. The fancy regression analysis done by the geeks always came up pretty close to the same result, but not lately.

Still another way to look at it:

S&P 500 4230 / GDP 22.061 = 192.

That's an elevated ratio which was common before 1929, but we've never seen such levels in the post-war.

Sum ting funny goin' on.