The current case rate of 44.11/million yields about 14,600 cases daily nationwide.
The current death rate of 1.27/million yields about 420 deaths daily nationwide, which sustained over a year would yield about 150k deaths.
Using New York Times data, deaths from Mar 7-Jun 6 = 72582, cases = 4,334,762 for a case fatality rate of 1.67%. That's 6.7% lower than the rate which obtained during the first year of the pandemic to 3/7/21, which was 1.79% using the data compiled by covidtracking dot com.
It remains to be seen if we'll see a repeat of last winter. The rapid decline of cases after the first of the year before the mass vaccination effort took hold suggests the disease is seasonal like influenza. Apart from the initial appearance of the disease, the graphs below all suggest late autumn seasonality.
We won't really know how effective the vaccines are until they are put up against the next seasonal test.
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| 44/million on 6-5-21 |
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| 1.27/million on 6-5-21 |
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| 16856 on 6-5-21 |
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| 2.8% on 6-1-21 |
