Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Bloomberg says Ted is dead using AP delegate math and can't reach 1,237


The path for Cruz to 1,237 delegates before the July convention in Cleveland is now officially closed: 674 delegates remain in the states ahead, and Cruz is 678 short of the magic number, according to an Associated Press tally. Worse, his double-digit victory in Wisconsin on April 5 has failed to produce a perceivable polling bounce in key upcoming states.

That's based on 674 delegates remaining.

Beginning with Connecticut next week, Real Clear Politics also shows 674 delegates still up for grabs.

Bloomberg itself, however, shows 734 not yet allocated, including 3 in Colorado, 3 in Oklahoma, 4 in Wyoming, 5 in Louisiana, 9 in the US Virgin Islands, 8 in Guam, 7 in American Samoa, 18 in North Dakota, and 3 in New York. Subtract those 60 and you get 674.

At 559 delegates committed to him so far, Cruz needs 678 to get to 1,237, so technically there aren't enough left in the future contests, but those 60 from previous contests are still in the mix. 101 delegates or so will probably go to Trump in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island next week, balancing out those 60, with Pennsylvania's 71 delegates also in the mix.

After that, Ted will be truly dead. 

The delegates won by others are Rubio (171), Kasich (147), Carson (9), Bush (4), Fiorina (1), Huckabee (1) and Rand Paul (1).

With 845, Trump still needs 392, which is 58% of the 674 remaining in future contests, or 53% of the 734 future plus yet undecided, or . . . add in those won by others and Trump needs a combination of future wins, undecideds and poached delegates representing just 37% of the 1,068 total available.

Paul Manafort's job.