Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Ted Cruz wins the lesbian vote in Wisconsin, slows Trump momentum by less than 4%

On the most generous interpretation of the delegate allocation, Trump goes from needing 488 additional delegates before Wisconsin to needing 482 now. This assumes he still gets 12 more from foot-dragging Missouri and 3 in Wisconsin not yet shown (total 6) for a total of 755 vs. 749. He goes from needing 53.2% of remaining delegates to needing 55.2%, the two-point difference representing a slowdown in momentum of not quite 3.8%.

Using the same assumptions, Cruz goes from needing 762 before Wisconsin to needing 720 now, or from needing 83% of available delegates before to needing 82.5% now. That's not even a 1% pick-up in speed.

Going forward, Trump momentum is bound to pick-up as the race heads east to Trump's backyard, where Cruz will have trouble attracting votes from New York values voters.

Kasich, however, could continue to be a problem for Trump in the more liberal east, but interestingly he came in a distant third everywhere in Wisconsin and won nothing. Even in liberal congressional district 2, which includes Madison and had Tammy Baldwin as its Democrat representative, Kasich came in a distant third.

Cruz narrowly bested Trump in CD-2 by fewer than 2900 votes.

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