Showing posts with label Real Clear Politics 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Clear Politics 2010. Show all posts

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Obama's Senate Tax Plan Will Outspend the 2009 Stimulus: $858 Billion in New Spending

A veritable Christmas tree for programs which would die in the free market without federal help, like ethanol, commuter trains, and wind and solar energy.

Conservative Republicans should help the Socialists like Senator Sanders filibuster it.

The story is here.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Bill Clinton in an Alexander Haig Moment at The White House

Reagan was wounded, literally, when Al Haig tried to assure the country that someone was in control at The White House (video here).








Obama is wounded politically (keeping the wife waiting he says), so Bill takes over at The White House! Watch that video here.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Uncalled House Race Update: CA-11 Remains a Democrat Hold

So says Real Clear Politics tonight.

But the hold is not by much, and the Republican challenger, who is down by just under 3000 votes, has yet to concede.

Jerry McNerney, the incumbent Democrat, looks to have benefitted by a third party challenge to the Republican David Harmer's right. A Constitution Party candidate siphoned-off about 5% of the vote from the Republican, over 9000 votes, more than enough to have made all the difference.

With one race not yet called, NY-1, the Republicans have a net gain of 63 in the US House.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Uncalled House Races Update: CA-20 and NY-25

Real Clear Politics is showing CA-20 to be a Democrat hold tonight. The Hill says incumbent Democrat Jim Costa had picked up 3000 votes in the interim since the election, even though as of November 9 the totals showed Costa had trailed the Republican challenger Vidak by 27 votes. Vidak apparently had not yet conceded.

RCP also shows NY-25 to be a GOP pick up over incumbent Democrat Maffei, an Obama freshman, who conceded to the Republican challenger Buerkle after Buerkle's tally was trimmed only by roughly a hundred votes from the 659 vote lead she had as of November 10.

So the net Republican gain now stands at 63 with two races still not called: NY-1 and CA-11.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Uncalled House Races Update: Republican Wins in IL-8

CNN.com reports here that the incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean has conceded to the Republican challenger Walsh in the IL-8 House district race.

It appears that Walsh won by fewer than 500 votes in the race where a third party Green candidate siphoned-off 3% of the vote on the Democrat's left.

That would give the Republicans a net gain of 62 seats in the US House, with four races still to be decided: CA-11, CA-20, NY-25 and NY-1.

Real Clear Politics also shows IL-8 a Republican pick-up overnight. 

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Uncalled House Race Update: VA-11 a Democrat Hold

Real Clear Politics has been showing this race a Democrat hold since yesterday.

Politics Daily shows the incumbent Democrat Connolly with just 920 votes more than the Republican challenger Fimian.

Three third party candidates could be blamed for the Republican's loss. The Independent garnered 1,838 votes, the Libertarian 1,381 votes, and the Green 959 votes. All together those votes represented barely 1.75% of all votes cast.

Net Republican gains remain at 61 with 6 races still not called: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25 and NY-1.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Undecided Races Update: WA-2 Stays Democrat

Real Clear Politics shows the race as a Democrat hold this morning.

Politics Daily shows just 11 precincts left to be counted and 98% of the vote in with incumbent Democrat Larsen ahead of Republican challenger Koster by almost 5,500 votes.

That leaves the Republicans with a net gain of 61 seats in the US House, with 7 races still not called: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25, VA-11 and NY-1.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Net Republican Pickups 61

Republican pickups number 64 gross, but the net must subtract Democrat pickups, which were 3: the at-large seat in Delaware vacated by primary defeated Mike Castle in the Senate race, Abercrombie's seat in Hawaii only very temporarily occupied by a Republican, and Cao's seat in Louisiana, who lost as the only Republican voting for Obamacare.

So net 61 Republican pickups, as shown at Real Clear Politics, with 8 races still not called.

Uncalled Races Update

Looks like NY-1 all of a sudden goes into the undecided category, with Real Clear Politics this morning showing Bishop vs. Altshuler at 50-50.

The others are (Democrat vs. Republican):

CA-11, McNerney vs. Harmer, 48-47
CA-20, Costa vs. Vidak, 49-51
IL-8, Bean vs. Walsh, 48-49
KY-6, Chandler vs. Barr, 50-50
NY-25, Maffei vs. Buerkle, 51-49
VA-11, Connolly vs. Fimian, 49-49
WA-2, Larsen vs. Koster, 50-50.

So we're back to 8, not 7, uncalled. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Why They Lost: House Democrat Casualty Lists for November 2, 2010

In politics it always pays to avoid controversy if you want to survive.

If I'm counting correctly, there are 64 Republican pickups from the Democrats in the House as of this morning over at Real Clear Politics, with 9 races still not called in Arizona (2), California (2), Illinois, Kentucky, New York, Virginia and Washington (Grijalva, Giffords, McNerney, Costa, Bean, Chandler, Maffei, Connolly and Larsen).

In 50 of these 64 races lost by Democrats, incumbents were defending seats, and 33 of those, or 66%, had voted FOR Obamacare in March, despite its unpopularity in the polls: Oberstar [L], Titus [f], Ortiz [L], Kirkpatrick [f], Mitchell [BD], Salazar [BDL], Markey [fBD], Pomeroy [BDL], Rodriguez [L], Hill [BDL], Boyd [BD], Klein, Spratt [L], Perriello [fL], Etheridge [L], Wilson [BDL], Boccieri [fL], Kosmas [f], Grayson [f], Halvorson [f], Foster, Hare, Schauer [f], Shea-Porter, Hall [L], Scott Murphy [BD], Driehaus [fL], Kilroy [f], Carney [BDL], Kanjorski [L], Dahlkemper [fBDL], Pat Murphy [fBD], and Kagen.

The remaining 17 incumbents lost despite voting AGAINST Obamacare: Minnick [fBD], Bright [fBDst], Sandlin [BD], Taylor [BDst], Nye [fBD], Boucher, Space [BDst], Marshall [BDst], Kratovil [fBD], Skelton [st], Childers [BDst], Adler [f], Teague [fst], McMahon [f], Arcuri [BD], Lincoln Davis [BDst] and Edwards.

20 of the 64 who lost were freshmen [marked f], representing 63% of the 32 freshmen elected with Obama in 2008, and 31% of the total.

Of 54 Blue Dogs on the coalition's list in March at the time of the Obamacare vote, 22 were defeated yesterday [marked BD], or 41% of that membership. 3 races were still too close to call: Chandler [st], Costa and Giffords.

Of 21 Stupak Amendment supporters who proved it by voting NO on Obamacare [marked st], 8 still lost yesterday. Of 32 more who proved they didn't really believe in the Stupak Amendment by voting YES on Obamacare [marked L], 16 lost.

The distribution of self-definitions shows that the group most likely to get booted was the fiscally conservative Blue Dogs (22 associations), undoubtedly because the voters saw that despite the self-identification their voting records were anything but fiscally prudent. "Methinks Thou dost protest too much."

Next most likely to get booted were freshmen (20 associations). Inexperience makes you vulnerable by definition. The vast majority of new business fails, which is why spawn are numbered in the millions.

Pro-lifers in name only come next in vulnerability (16 associations). It's best not to lie about matters so serious because you will be found out eventually.

The least vulnerable among these losing Democrats? Those who were pro-life and meant it (8 associations), and those who defined themselves not at all (7 associations).

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Disinformation Election Headlines at Real Clear Politics Repudiated by Republican Tsunami

Compare Walter Shapiro's "The Democratic Debacle" at Politics Daily today here:

America has seen tidal wave off-year elections before (three, in fact, in the past 16 years). But what was epic about the glub-glub election of 2010 is that even with months of warning most imperiled Democrats could not find high enough ground.

In the House, Republicans gained a minimum of 60 seats, dethroning Nancy Pelosi as House speaker, probably making this the GOP's biggest off-year triumph since (gulp!) 1938 once all the votes are counted.


And these headlines from Real Clear Politics, which admittedly disappeared rather suddenly in early October, for a good belly laugh on this historic day for America:

Saturday, October 9, 2010: Dem: Election Won't Be So Bad After All - Tim Fernholz, American Prospect

Friday, October 1, 2010: Democrats Will Hold the House and Senate - Bob Shrum, The Week

Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2010: Why the Generic Ballot May Underestimate Dems - Nate Silver, NY Times

Tuesday, Sept. 21, 2010: GOP Has Tough Road to Win House - Martin Frost, Politico

Monday, Sept. 20, 2010: Tying GOP to Tea Parties is D's Best Hope - Michael Tomasky, The Guardian

Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010: Don't Forget That the Bailouts Worked - Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek [If they had worked we'd know it and wouldn't need to be reminded. After all, we are paying for it right now . . . and Will. Be. Forever.]

Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010: Landslide Midterm is Hardly Certain - Charles Blow, New York Times [Did we mention a landslide is hardly certain?]

Saturday, Sept. 18, 2010: Landslide Midterm is Hardly Certain - Charles Blow, New York Times

Friday, Sept. 17, 2010: Faustian Deal w/Tea Party Will Cost GOP Dearly - Bob Shrum, The Week [Hahahahahahahaha!]

Thursday, Sept. 16, 2010: David Plouffe: Tea Parties Help Democrats - Lloyd Grove, The Daily Beast [Yeah right, when pigs fly in formation]

Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2010: Pelosi: Democrats "Absolutely" Will Retain the House - The Hill [When pigs fly upside down]

Sunday, Sept. 12, 2010: Maybe All Isn't Lost for Democrats - Dick Polman, Philadelphia Inquirer

Sunday, Sept. 12, 2010: Democrats Can Win the House - Ben Crair, The Daily Beast [When pigs fly]

Saturday, Sept. 11, 2010: 10 Things Dems Could Do to Win - Thomas Geoghegan, The Nation [No. 10: Become Republicans]

Friday, Sept. 10, 2010: Dems' Gloom May Be Premature - David Corn, Politics Daily

Thursday, Sept. 9, 2010: It's Good to Have Obama on the Campaign Trail - Gene Lyons, Salon

Thursday, Sept. 9, 2010: Dem Strategists Pooh-Pooh the Polls - Dana Milbank, Washington Post

Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010: Democrats Doomed? Not So Fast - Susan Estrich, Creators

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Praying for Clean Spirits: That's Not Weird?

Easily as weird as another First Lady who believed in astrology.

"It means all the world to us to know that there are prayer circles out there and people who are keeping the spirits clean around us," First Lady Michelle Obama said on the "Tom Joyner Morning Show" today.

See that here.

Didn't anyone tell her there's an election coming up shortly and to put a sock in it, or at least some more shrimp, crab and lobster to keep that yap occupied until the danger passes? If she keeps this up that Marian Robinson voodoo stuff is going to start sounding plausible!

Friday, October 8, 2010

Obama: The God That Failed

The Associated Press is reporting today here that unemployment holds high and steady at 9.6%:

Unemployment has now topped 9.5 percent for 14 months in a row, the longest stretch since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Flash back to the beginning of the year when we were in month six of the fourteen:

"And the notion that I would somehow resist doing something that cost half as much but would produce twice as many jobs -- why would I resist that? I wouldn't. I mean, that's my point, is that -- I am not an ideologue. I'm not."

-- BHO, Baltimore Q and A, January 29, 2010

What else but devotion to a failed ideology would work like such a charm and keep unemployment so high for so long?

Obama The Utopian

"Our union can be perfected."

-- BHO, speech in Chicago, IL, November 4, 2008

Remember This Health Insurance Premiums Whopper?

"If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change under my plan is that we will lower premiums."

-- Barack Hussein Obama, speech in Canton, Ohio, Monday October 27, 2008

A new survey of companies by Hewitt Associates here projects an 8.8% overall increase in premiums for 2011, 11% to 22% of which is directly caused by ObamaCare.

Monday, July 26, 2010

George Will, National Treasure, Font of American Wisdom

Some excerpts from his address to The CATO Institute in May:

We are not Europeans. We are not, in Orwell's phrase, a "state-broken people."

It is a principle of liberal social legislation that a program for the poor is a poor program.

[D]ependency is the agenda of the other side.

I believe that today, as has been the case for 100 years, and as will be the case for the foreseeable future, the American political argument is an argument between two Princetonians: James Madison of the class of 1771, and Thomas Woodrow Wilson of the class of 1879.

The very virtue of a constitution is that it's not changeable. It exists to prevent change, to embed certain rights so that they cannot easily be taken away.

Madison said rights pre-exist government. Wilson said government exists to dispense whatever agenda of rights suits its fancy, and to annihilate, regulate, attenuate, or dilute others.

We are going to come to a time when America is going to have to revisit Madison's Federalist Paper no. 45, and his statement, "The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined."

Gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement!

[W]e always have more to fear from government speed than government tardiness.

We are told that one must not be a "Party of No." To "No," I say an emphatic "Yes!"

[T]he most beautiful five words in the English language are the first five words of the First Amendment, "Congress shall make no law."

The Bill of Rights is a litany of "No's."

The American people are, I think, healthier than they are given credit for. They have only one defect. They have nothing to fear, right now, but an insufficiency of their fear itself. It is time for a wholesome fear of what people with a dependency agenda are trying to do. We have few allies. We don't have Hollywood, we don't have academia, and we don't have the mainstream media. But we have two things. First, we have arithmetic. The numbers do not add up, and cannot be made to do so. Second, we have the Cato Institute. The people in this room are what the Keynesians call "a multiplier." And, for once, they are right!

Don't miss the rest at the link!

Monday, July 12, 2010

"THE MOST DANGEROUS AND INCOMPETENT PRESIDENT WE HAVE EVER HAD"

Not my words, but those of the Jewish atheist Nat Hentoff:


July 12, 2010

Health Care Rationing Obama Believes In

By Nat Hentoff

As a reporter, I do not use euphemisms - such as calling murderous terrorists "militants" or "activists." And as an American, I can exercise my First Amendment right to say plainly that President Obama is a liar with regard to our new health-care law, often referred to as Obamacare.

When a number of critics of Obamacare, including myself, warned that it would bring the rationing of treatments, medications and research into new procedures, the president said to the American Medical Association (June 15, 2009) that this rationing charge was a "fear tactic."

The next month, he said flat out: "I don't believe that government can or should run health care" (firstthings.com, May 31, 2010).

But in May of this year, the president nominated Dr. Donald Berwick, a professor at Harvard Medical School, to head Health and Human Services' Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) - the most powerful health-care position. As Hal Scherz underlines (RealClearPolitics.com, May 26): "CMS covers over 100 million Americans, has an annual $800 billion budget that is larger than the Defense Department's and is the second-largest insurance company in the world."

Unlike Obama, Berwick is enthusiastically, openly candid in his support of Britain's socialistic National Health Service. In a 2008 speech to British physicians, our new health czar said: "I am romantic about National Health Service. I love it (because it is) 'generous, hopeful, confident, joyous and just.'"

That "just" National Health Care Service decides which care can be too costly for the government to pay. Its real-time decider of life-or-death outcomes is the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). Here is how "nicely" it works, described by Michael Tanner, senior fellow and health-care expert at the Cato Institute (where I, too, am a senior fellow):

"It acts as a comparative-effectiveness tool for the National Health Care Service, comparing various treatments and determining whether the benefits the patients receives - SUCH AS PROLONGED LIFE - are cost-efficient for the government" (lifenews.com, May 27).

So listen to our very own decider of how the Obama administration will lower our national debt by cutting inefficient health-care costs. After declaring his ardent romantic attachment to the British system, Berwick said: "All I need to do to rediscover the romance is to look at health care in my own country." He will, of course, be too busy to attend the funerals of the sacrificial Americans whose lives - not only those of the elderly - may thereby be cut short.

Tanner makes a grim point as Berwick rediscovers the romance of government cost-effectiveness: "Recent reports suggest that the recently passed health-care bill will be far more expensive than originally projected. As it becomes apparent that Obamacare is unsustainable, the calls for controlling its costs through rationing will grow louder. With Donald Berwick running the government's health-care efforts, those voices have a ready ear" (dailycaller.com, May 27).

By then, Berwick will be involved in the government-controlled health of more than 100 million Americans and - notes Michael Tanner - "Maybe those worries about death panels weren't so crazy after all."

Keep in mind that already, in May, "the Congressional Budget Office updated its cost projections (of Obamacare). It found that the new health legislation would cost $115 billion more than estimated when it was enacted ("ObamaCare's Ever-Rising Price Tag," Wall Street Journal, June 3).

How soon will the romantic rhythms of health rationing follow?

Wesley Smith, an invaluable investigative reporter on the dangers of government-controlled health care, describes the consequences if Obamacare is not repealed by the next Congress after the midterm elections:

"Once the centralized planning of medical delivery is complete - with cost-containment boards controlling the standards of care and the extent of coverage for both the private and public sectors - insurance companies, HMOs and the government will be able to legally discriminate against the sickest, most disabled and most elderly in our country. In other words, those whose care is most expensive."

For what to watch for during the reign of Berwick, whom Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sibelius recently glorified as "absolutely the right leader for this time" (CNSNews.com, May 26), I bring back Michael Tanner:

In the British Health Service Berwick loves, "750,000 patients are awaiting admission to NHS hospitals. ...The latest estimates suggest that for most specialties, only 30 to 50 percent of patients are treated within 18 weeks. For trauma and orthopedic patients, the figure is only 20 percent. ... Every year 50,000 surgeries are canceled because patients become too sick on the waiting list to proceed."

And, again unlike the president, Berwick tells it like it frighteningly is in a June 2009 interview for the magazine, Biotechnology Healthcare:

"It's not a question of whether we will ration health care. It is whether we will ration with our eyes open."

There are many reasons why it is vital for Americans to vote in the midterm elections - and, of course, in 2012, to prevent a second term for the most dangerous and incompetent president we have ever had - but for many Americans, it is particularly important this year to vote against supporters of Obamacare. The question for many voters should be whether, in the years ahead, they will be in condition to vote if they are on waiting lists for government-controlled health care.

More of us are learning that during the Obama administration, it is essential to continually keep our eyes open on all it does.

Nat Hentoff is a nationally renowned authority on the First Amendment and the Bill of Rights. He is a member of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, and the libertarian Cato Institute, where he is a senior fellow.

This piece appeared here.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

OBAMA EMBRACES STALIN'S UNIQUE DESCRIPTION OF WWII

Finally, I would simply add that the new partnership between our people spans the spectrum, from space to science to sports. I think, President, you're aware that recently I welcomed to the White House a group of young Russian basketball players -- both boys and girls -- who were visiting the United States. We went on the White House basketball court, and I have to admit some of them out-shot me. (Laughter.) They represented the hope for the future that brings our countries together.

Those were the same hopes of another generation of Americans and Russians -- the generation that stood together as allies in the Second World War -- the Great Patriotic War in which the Russian people suffered and sacrificed so much. We recently marked the 65th anniversary of our shared victory in that war, including that historic moment when American and Soviet troops came together in friendship at the Elbe River in Germany.

 -- Barack Obama, June 24, 2010 (transcript here)

"The term is not generally used outside the former Soviet Union" (Wikipedia, here), except, apparently, by aficionados.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The Left's Anti-American Slander

When leftists and socialists compare Americans who believe in limited government to Nazis, they forget that many of them had fathers who left wives and children behind to join in the effort to defeat Hitler. To such Americans, the comparison is an outrage, and the left would do well not to underestimate the consequences of stoking this anger. The following appeared here:


March 31, 2010

The Hostility Follies

By Jonah Goldberg

Apparently there's a self-proclaimed militia leader named Mike Vanderboegh who runs an obscure, low-traffic blog out of Pinson, Ala. (population 5,007). Mr. Vanderboegh recently called on his fellow "sons of liberty" to break the windows of Democrats who voted for healthcare reform.

So let's start with the obvious: Vanderboegh is an idiot, and anyone who followed his advice is an idiot too. These people are buffoons, not just because such tactics help Democrats but because such behavior is simply wrong, reprehensible and clownish.

Equally wrong, reprehensible and clownish: The reaction to Vanderboegh and his alleged ilk.

The Daily Beast's John Avlon insists that Vanderboegh's rallying cry, combined with some threats and broken windows, make "the parallels, intentional or not, to the Nazis' heinous 1938 Kristallnacht . . . hard to ignore."

Actually, it's really, really easy to ignore the parallels. During Kristallnacht, Nazi goons destroyed not just 7,000 store windows but hundreds of synagogues and thousands of homes. Tens of thousands of Jews were hauled off to concentration camps by the Nazis, who had been in total power for half a decade.

This combination of state power and murderous, genocidal intent is nowhere on display in America today, not in the Obama administration (contrary to what some overheated right-wingers claim) and certainly not among out-of-power conservatives and "tea partyers." It's amazing anyone needs to point this out, but a few libertarians throwing bricks is not the same thing as the tightening fist of the Third Reich. Indeed, it's an anti-American slander to suggest anything like it is going on here, and it cheapens the moral horror of the Holocaust.

Don't tell that to the Democrats and their media transmission belt, who largely turned a blind eye to partisan vandalism and extremist rhetoric against Republicans for eight years but now express horror at what they claim to hear from the right.

Columnist Paul Krugman, who encouraged liberals to hang Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) in effigy, is concerned about right-wing "eliminationist rhetoric." The Washington Post's Courtland Milloy can't stand the incivility of the tea partyers, which is why he wants to "knock every racist and homophobic tooth out of their Cro-Magnon heads." Frank Rich says the mantra "take our country back" is now code for a white racist backlash -- though it was an apparently fine Democratic applause line when George W. Bush was president.

So what's the evidence for this new reign of terror? Those broken windows, some nasty voice and e-mail messages (not counting those aimed at Republicans, naturally), a coffin "left" at a Missouri congressman's home, a few repugnant signs at rallies and allegations from Reps. Emanuel Cleaver II (D-Mo.)and John Lewis (D-Ga.) that they were spit on and insulted with the "N-word," respectively.

But wait. The coffin was part of a protest over the death of "our freedoms" and was toted by the protesters, not left anywhere. And videos make it clear that what Cleaver called spitting was a protester spraying too much saliva while talking, the racist pig.

As for the epithet aimed at Lewis, if it happened, it's disgusting. But going by the video, there's nothing to back it up, and Rep. Andre Carson's (D-Ind.) claim that the N-word was chanted 15 times is pure dishonesty.

Let's assume it is true. I thought liberals rejected guilt by association as McCarthyism. Or are we to believe that every opponent of Obamacare is a racist?

On March 3, Politico broke a story about a leaked PowerPoint presentation delivered at a GOP retreat in Florida. It laid out, in cartoonish terms, a fundraising strategy exploiting "fear" of President Obama's "socialist" agenda. Ranking Republicans condemned and repudiated it.

Now, Obama's political arm, Organizing for America, is fundraising based on fear, sending out e-mails insinuating that Republicans are unleashing a lynch mob to repeal Obamacare. Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democrats' Congressional Campaign Committee, insists we all should be very scared.

Heaven forbid anyone suggest a coordinated strategy is at work here. That would be distracting us from the Kristallnacht unfolding before our eyes.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

ObamaCare Will Increase Deficits By Over $500 Billion in First Decade

Sorry. Just correcting the lies.

The article was posted here:


March 25, 2010

Bond Markets Reflect the True Cost of Obamacare

By Michael Barone

Not many people noticed amid the Democrats' struggle to jam their health care bill through the House, but in recent weeks U.S. Treasury bonds have lost their status as the world's safest investment.

The numbers are pretty clear. In February, Bloomberg News reports, Berkshire Hathaway sold two-year bonds with an interest rate lower than that on two-year Treasuries. A company run by a 79-year-old investor is a better credit risk, the markets are telling us, than the U.S. government.

Buffett's firm isn't the only one. Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and Lowe's have been borrowing money at cheaper rates than Uncle Sam.

Democrats wary of voting for the health care bill may have been soothed by the Congressional Budget Office's report that it would reduce federal deficits over the next 10 years. But bond buyers know that the Democrats gamed the CBO system to get a good score.

The realities, as former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin pointed out in The New York Times, are different. The real cost is disguised by the fact that the bill includes 10 years of revenue but only six years of spending. It includes $70 billion in premiums for long-term care that will have to be paid out later. It excludes $114 billion in discretionary spending needed to run the program. It includes nearly half a trillion dollars in unrealistic Medicare savings.

Holtz-Eakins's bottom line: The bill will not lower deficits, but will raise them by $562 billion over 10 years. Treasury will have to borrow that money -- and probably pay much higher interest than it's paying now.

Moreover, once the bill is fully in effect, the Cato Institute's Alan Reynolds points out, its expenses are likely to grow at least 7 percent a year -- significantly faster than revenues. At that rate, spending doubles every 10 years.

No wonder that Moody's declared last week that the Treasury is "substantially" closer to losing its AAA bond rating.

It's not only the federal government that is heading toward insolvency. State governments will have to spend more under the health care bill -- $735 million in Tennessee alone, according to Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen.

And state governments are already facing a huge problem called pensions. The Pew Charitable Trusts estimates that state government pensions are underfunded by $450 billion. My American Enterprise Institute colleague Andrew Biggs argues in The Wall Street Journal that the real figure is over $3 trillion.

The reason: State governments set aside cash to invest in pensions, but they typically assume that their investments will rise 8 percent a year indefinitely. They haven't been getting such high returns and are not likely to do so in the future. But they are under legal obligations, which courts won't allow them to escape, to pay the pensions. Retirees get paid off before bondholders, which means that states are going to have to pay more interest when they borrow.

Back in the 1990s, Clinton adviser James Carville said that if he was reincarnated he would like to come back as the bond market -- "because you can intimidate everybody." Governments, like all organizations, need to borrow routinely. But investors won't lend unless they think they will be paid back. And they will demand higher interest rates as their loans become riskier.

On Sunday, 219 House Democrats, soothed by their leaders' gaming of the CBO scoring process, voted in reckless disregard of what the bond market has been telling them. Some may share Speaker Nancy Pelosi's optimism that the government's looming fiscal disaster can be avoided by imposing a value-added tax -- in effect, a national sales tax.

But, as we know from the experience of high-tax Western Europe and relatively low-tax America over the last three decades, higher taxes tend to retard economic growth. Lower economic growth means less revenue for government than in CBO projections. Less revenue means more borrowing -- and at some point lenders are going to call a halt.

Barack Obama's project of transforming the United States into something like Western Europe is, according to the CBO, raising the national debt burden on the economy to World War II levels. I see train wrecks ahead -- as the bond market forces huge spending cuts or tax increases first on states and then on the federal government. It will make what happened in the House Sunday look pretty.