In politics it always pays to avoid controversy if you want to survive.
If I'm counting correctly, there are 64 Republican pickups from the Democrats in the House as of this morning over at Real Clear Politics, with 9 races still not called in Arizona (2), California (2), Illinois, Kentucky, New York, Virginia and Washington (Grijalva, Giffords, McNerney, Costa, Bean, Chandler, Maffei, Connolly and Larsen).
In 50 of these 64 races lost by Democrats, incumbents were defending seats, and 33 of those, or 66%, had voted FOR Obamacare in March, despite its unpopularity in the polls: Oberstar [L], Titus [f], Ortiz [L], Kirkpatrick [f], Mitchell [BD], Salazar [BDL], Markey [fBD], Pomeroy [BDL], Rodriguez [L], Hill [BDL], Boyd [BD], Klein, Spratt [L], Perriello [fL], Etheridge [L], Wilson [BDL], Boccieri [fL], Kosmas [f], Grayson [f], Halvorson [f], Foster, Hare, Schauer [f], Shea-Porter, Hall [L], Scott Murphy [BD], Driehaus [fL], Kilroy [f], Carney [BDL], Kanjorski [L], Dahlkemper [fBDL], Pat Murphy [fBD], and Kagen.
The remaining 17 incumbents lost despite voting AGAINST Obamacare: Minnick [fBD], Bright [fBDst], Sandlin [BD], Taylor [BDst], Nye [fBD], Boucher, Space [BDst], Marshall [BDst], Kratovil [fBD], Skelton [st], Childers [BDst], Adler [f], Teague [fst], McMahon [f], Arcuri [BD], Lincoln Davis [BDst] and Edwards.
20 of the 64 who lost were freshmen [marked f], representing 63% of the 32 freshmen elected with Obama in 2008, and 31% of the total.
Of 54 Blue Dogs on the coalition's list in March at the time of the Obamacare vote, 22 were defeated yesterday [marked BD], or 41% of that membership. 3 races were still too close to call: Chandler [st], Costa and Giffords.
Of 21 Stupak Amendment supporters who proved it by voting NO on Obamacare [marked st], 8 still lost yesterday. Of 32 more who proved they didn't really believe in the Stupak Amendment by voting YES on Obamacare [marked L], 16 lost.
The distribution of self-definitions shows that the group most likely to get booted was the fiscally conservative Blue Dogs (22 associations), undoubtedly because the voters saw that despite the self-identification their voting records were anything but fiscally prudent. "Methinks Thou dost protest too much."
Next most likely to get booted were freshmen (20 associations). Inexperience makes you vulnerable by definition. The vast majority of new business fails, which is why spawn are numbered in the millions.
Pro-lifers in name only come next in vulnerability (16 associations). It's best not to lie about matters so serious because you will be found out eventually.
The least vulnerable among these losing Democrats? Those who were pro-life and meant it (8 associations), and those who defined themselves not at all (7 associations).
