Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics is some expert on elections

On the eve of Election 2016, Trump now needs just 4 Electoral College votes to win this thing tomorrow

Here is the No Toss-Ups map from Real Clear Politics, at 1940 hours.

As you can see, Trump just needs NH (Clinton +0.6) or PA (Clinton +1.9) or VA (Clinton +5) or MI (Clinton +3.4) or CO (Clinton +2.9) or NM (Clinton +5) to win this thing.

Come on people. Say No! to the establishment on both sides. Give Trump the chance to turn America around! Take the country back for the people!

This is undoubtedly your last chance. If Hillary is elected, your guns will go away, along with your ammo, freedom of speech will be curtailed, law and order will continue under assault as liberal appointees fill the judiciary, you will become dependent on government for healthcare, foreigners will flood the land even worse than before, your good paying jobs will fly away to cheaper markets abroad, taxes will soar, economic growth will continue to stagnate, and you'll be lucky to inherit your parents' house because you won't be able to afford one of your own. All because of "pussy". 

With polls opening in about 24 hours, 12 states and one congressional district in Maine are Toss Ups

Maine confuses the math because it awards Electoral College votes by congressional district. The race is a toss-up in congressional district 2 where Trump is slightly ahead. If he wins it he gets one Electoral College vote. Congressional district 1 will go to Clinton and she will get its one EC vote, based on the polling data there. Maine is unaccountably listed twice in this table from Real Clear Politics, making it not real clear. "Maine (2)" shouldn't appear in the list, only "Maine CD2 (1)". You'll notice Wisconsin isn't in this list. Why Trump spent valuable time and resources there in the last couple of weeks I don't understand. Virginia would have made more sense, but it too is now absent from the Toss-Ups.

So, with 241 EC votes already projected in the Trump column, if Trump ran this table he'd win overwhelmingly with 320.

If Trump simply keeps what he's got but turns Florida, he wins with 270.

If he doesn't win Florida he'll have to win Pennsylvania and Colorado to win with 270.

Alternatively a win in Pennsylvania and long shot Michigan would give him 277 to win it.

Trump plans to make his last stop of the 2016 campaign tonight in Michigan, right here in Grand Rapids.

Even though polling looks slightly better in New Mexico than in Michigan, New Mexico seems like an even bigger long shot.

This morning's Electoral College prediction with 4 days to Election 2016: Clinton 298 to Trump 240

Clinton begins with 226 Electoral College votes on the Real Clear Politics map.

The average of the last poll and the polling average this morning indicates she wins FL (29) by less than 3 points, VA (13) by more than 4 points, PA (20) by 2.5 points, ME-2 (1) by more than 1 point, and CO (9) by more than 1 point.

Trump begins with 180 Electoral College votes and wins NC (15) by 3.9 points, NH (4) by less than 1 point, OH (18) by more than 4 points, IA (6) by less than 1 point, AZ (11) by 4.5 points, and NV (6) by 1 point.

The most recent polls are all tied up in NH, IA, CO and NV.

Clinton is ahead by only 2 points in the latest polls in PA and ME-2. Her margins in the averages are razor thin in FL (1.2) and ME-2 (0.7) and thin in PA (3.0) and CO (2.6).

Trump is ahead by only 1 point in the latest poll in GA (a phony to make him spend money there?). His margins in the averages are razor thin in NC (0.8), NH (1.5), and IA (1.4) and thin in OH (3.3) and NV (2.0).

Clinton's objective is clear: Take away NH, IA and NV from Trump and make him spend money in NC and OH.

Trump's objective is more daunting, to keep NC, NH, IA, OH and NV while pressing hard in PA, ME-2, FL and CO. Trump needs 30 more Electoral College votes to win, which he can get in a few ways, say by winning FL and ME-2, or he can win even if he loses FL by winning PA, CO and ME-2.

Clinton's vulnerability in PA, ME-2, FL and CO adds up to 59 Electoral College votes.

Trump's vulnerability in NC, NH, IA, OH and NV adds up to 49 Electoral College votes.

Like I said, Trump should concentrate on Virginia, not Wisconsin or Michigan: Real Clear Politics just moved Virginia to "Toss-up" this morning

Virginia now favors Clinton by only +4.7.

Michigan is now Clinton +7.

Wisconsin is Clinton +5.7.

Trump is wasting his time in Michigan and Wisconsin.

With one week until Election 2016, America is about to elect a crook, Hillary Clinton, president with 305 Electoral College votes

The Real Clear Politics map at this hour shows Clinton with 263 Electoral College votes in her column, Trump with 164, and 111 Toss-Ups.

NH, PA, VA, MI, WI, MN, NM and OR lean Clinton by an average of 6.55 points and are included in her total of 263.

IN, MO, TX and UT lean Trump by an average of 6.5 points and are included in his total of 164.

Based solely on the polling in the Toss-Ups, Clinton is set to win NV, AZ, CO, ME-2 and NC, giving her a total of 305, 35 more than the 270 she needs to win. Her average lead in the polls in these 5 is just 2.04 points.

Trump is set to win IA, OH, GA and FL, giving him a total of 233, 37 fewer than the 270 he needs to win. His average lead in the polls in these 4 is 2.13 points.

Clinton's margin nationally has fallen to +2.2 over Trump. Libertarian Johnson averages 4.6 points and Green Party Stein 2.1 points.

Trump hasn't yet run one radio ad in my market in Michigan

I listen to talk radio pretty much non-stop during the election season, and here in western Michigan Trump actually visited today for the first time in a month but I haven't heard one ad on the radio this week for Trump, let alone one ad on the radio in any other week in the last 30 days.

He's not going to win Michigan that way. Not without the western counties that all went for Ted Cruz. By eschewing the radio waves here Trump shows me he's not serious about winning Michigan. He keeps asking for money, but never seems to spend it on the one thing which could spread the enthusiasm present at his rallies to the older Republican base.

I think Trump will lose Michigan and simply wasted his time coming here today, mistakenly continuing to practice what's been appropriate to the primary strategy when the general election requires something more.

Clinton's Real Clear Politics polling average tonight in Michigan is +6.3.

Two weeks to Election 2016 Real Clear Politics polling averages have Clinton beating Trump 333-205 in the Electoral College

With two weeks to go to Election 2016 the Real Clear Politics polling averages have Clinton beating Trump 333-205 in the Electoral College matchup. Hillary has regained momentum in the polling in the last week, up from winning 321-217 last week.

The basic map has Clinton at 272 this morning, already winning, and Trump at 126, with 140 EC votes as toss-ups.

Based on the polling advantages this morning in the toss-ups, Clinton wins NV, AZ, NC and FL with an average lead of 2.95 points, bringing her to 333 EC votes.

Trump wins TX, IA, OH, ME-2 and GA with an average lead of 3.66 points, bringing him to 205 EC votes.

Hillary has 10 states which only lean in her direction. In 9 of these her average lead is 7.3 points (there is no average shown for CT). These are already counted in her 272 EC total this morning. Trump has 4 states only leaning in his direction. His average lead in these is 6.2 points. These are already counted in his total of 126.

Libertarian Gary Johnson continues to poll at 6.0 on average, more than off-setting Clinton's 5.4 lead over Trump (39.9) in a four-way match up including Stein (2.2). But only in CO, NM, MN and NH do Johnson's averages total in excess of Clinton's leads this week. Clinton clearly has made small gains in her own right in OR, WI, MI, PA and VA as voters come to realize this election is binary. Rasmussen and IBD show Clinton only at +1, however, in the four-way match up nationally. 

In a two-way match up IBD also shows Clinton +1, as does the LA Times. Gravis has Clinton and Trump tied in one of the few polls of registered voters, 74% of which vote on average since 1972.

Trump can still win this thing if his supporters don't lose heart and Americans can be convinced not to vote for the criminal alternative, Hillary Clinton

Consider the consensus of polling controlled by the pro-Democrat, liberal media interests as represented by the Real Clear Politics polling average today.

With just over 2 weeks to go until the election, Clinton is ahead 47.7 to Trump's 41.9 with an average margin of error of 3.46 points. Consider that this was almost exactly how things looked on August 17 when Trump handed over his campaign to Kellyanne Conway & Co. (Trump 41.2 v. Clinton 47.2). One can complain that Trump hasn't made any progress since then, but the same thing can be said about Clinton.

In view of what we know from Wikileaks demonstrating how the media aren't telling the truth and are simply part of the Clinton campaign, the truth is closer to the possibility of Clinton actually losing to Trump 45 to 44 in the popular vote despite the onslaught of character assassination going on against him, which is the only thing Democrats have going for them. That and the Republican traitors of #NeverTrump.

And that's what the daily tracking polls have been telling us, too, all along.

Rasmussen has consistently shown this to be a one or two point brawl for many months, often with Trump ahead. Same with IBD since the beginning of September. And the LA Times poll is virtually unchanged also since August 17 with Clinton +1 then and Trump +0.3 this morning.

As some headlines have suggested, Trump could win the popular vote and end up losing the election like Al Gore.

The reason is the toss-up states, but also the "leaners". Keep in mind that nationally the consensus of the liberal polling establishment has Clinton winning this by 6 points when it could actually be Trump by +1. In the states presently leaning Clinton her average lead is +7.35 but in her five toss-ups just +3.22. Trump's average lead in his leaners is +6.04 and in his toss-ups +3.25.

The race is much closer than the media which overwhelmingly support Clinton want you to believe.

O'Keefe exposes violence at Trump rallies as deep Democrat operation, Real Clear Politics totally ignores the story

O'Keefe here:

Using hidden cameras, undercover journalists reveal key players coordinating clandestine operations in support of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The video, supported by emails recently released by WikiLeaks, shows that the dirty tricks, lines of communications and the money trail lead all the way to the top. The video discloses numerous examples of behind-the-scenes shady practices with consequences most Americans have seen on national television at Donald Trump campaign rallies across the country. What the media hasn’t reported is that the Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee has been directing these activities . . ..

With 21 days to go to election day, Clinton is still winning in the Electoral College but by 6% fewer EC votes than last week

Last week the Real Clear Politics Electoral College map and the polling in the Toss-ups indicated a Clinton win 339-199.

Now with three weeks to go to election day Hillary's advantage has shrunk by 6%, now winning 321-217, and Trump is up by 9%.

Clinton today has 256 EC votes including 9 states which only lean her way.

Trump has 170 EC votes including 5 states which only lean his way.

ME-2 (+5.4) with 1 EC vote is in Trump's column, ME-1 (+19) with 1 EC vote is in Hillary's column.

Polling in the Toss-ups as of this hour has NV in the Clinton column by +2.5, MN by +4.3, NH by +3.6, NC by +2.7, and FL by +3.6. Her average lead is +3.3.

Libertarian Gary Johnson polls an average of 5.9 in these Clinton Toss-up states, in every case out-polling Clinton's actual leading margins, arguably helping Clinton win them. Green Party candidate Jill Stein polls 2.0 in MN, 2.0 in NH, and 1.4 in FL.

And in the Trump column are Toss-ups AZ by +1, IA by +3.7, IN by +4.5, and OH by +0.7. His average lead is +2.5.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein polls 1.5 in AZ, 1.7 in IA, and 2.3 in OH. Arguably Trump is winning in AZ and OH with Stein's help. Johnson polls 8.5 in AZ, 8.3 in IA, 10.0 in IN, and 6.5 in OH.

Overall Gary Johnson is polling an average of 7.0 in the nine Toss-up states and Stein an average of 1.8 in six of them compared with a combined average lead for Clinton or Trump of only 3.0.

Does the Libertarian Party or the Green Party have representation in Congress? If they're not a phenomenon of the people, maybe those parties shouldn't be allowed to spoil presidential elections by running candidates in the first place.

Network news on the radio keeps saying Trump is declining in polls, but Real Clear Politics just today moved NH to toss-up from leaning Hillary and GA to leaning Trump from toss-up

Repeating lies often doesn't make them so.

With a month to go, just how close is the race for the White House according to the Real Clear Politics polling averages?

Leaning Trump: leads in TX, MO, IN, SC and ME-2 by an average of 8.3, average margin of error 3.9.

Leaning Clinton: leads in NM, CO, WI, MI, PA, VA, NH and NJ by an average of 7.9, average margin of error 4.0.

The race is a toss up in NV, AZ, MN, IA, OH, NC, GA and FL with an average lead of 2.6, average margin of error 3.9.

Trump at 165 Electoral College votes would have to capture all the toss-ups save either NV or IA to finish with 270, but winning MN seems like a stretch to me in that scenario. Winning all the toss-ups save MN puts Trump short at 266.

NH with 4 EC votes is Trump's likeliest take away focus among Clinton's "leaners" right now. Her +6 there has an average margin of error of 4.6.

With 28 days to election day, Hillary has expanded her Electoral College lead over Trump and is now projected to win 339-199

With 28 days to go to the election, Hillary has reset the Electoral College map from Real Clear Politics in the last week by adding four states to her blue column: PA, MI, WI, CO. This boosts her Electoral College total by 55 in the last week from 205 to 260. Trump has again added nothing to his column and still stands at 165.

That leaves 113 Electoral College votes in Toss-Up vs. 168 last week.

Of these, the polling as of this morning indicates Trump retains AZ by +1, IA by +3.7, GA by +5, and ME-2 by +8.7. OH has peeled off to Hillary, however, at 0.5, and Trump has lost ground in AZ and IA.

Hillary is winning NV by +1.4, MN by +4.3, NC by +2.6, FL by +2.4, and ME-1 by +3.8. She has lost ground in ME-1 and FL.

To Hillary's 260 therefore add 79 for a total of 339.

To Trump's 165 therefore add 34 for a total of 199.

As of this morning, Clinton's leads over Trump in NM, CO, WI, MI, NH and VA can be explained statistically by the vote peeled off from Trump by libertarian Gary Johnson. But this is not the case in CT, NJ and PA. Johnson also polls higher than the spread in all nine Toss-up states.

Once again Job One for libertarians is to spoil elections for Republicans.

With 35 days to go to the election, Hillary steals a march on Trump in the last week: Electoral College forecast is now Hillary 321, Trump 217

With 35 days to go to the election, Hillary steals a march on Trump in the last week: Electoral College forecast is now Hillary 321, Trump 217.

Last week it was Clinton 292, Trump 246.

Things have deteriorated for Trump in the last week by 12%.

Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina have shifted as Toss-Ups back to Clinton, and New Hampshire and Virginia have moved out of Toss-Up into the Clinton column totaling 205.

The Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map has Clinton with 205, Trump 165 and 168 in "Toss-Up".

Based only on the polls in the Toss-Ups as of this morning, Clinton is winning 116 of those, and Trump 51.

Clinton is ahead in:

NV +0.2

CO +3.3

MN +4.3

WI +5.0

MI +5.0

PA +3.5

NC +0.2

FL +2.8

ME-1 +17

Trump is ahead in:

AZ +2.2

IA +5.0

OH +3.8

GA +4.8

ME-2 +8.7

Based only on these polls, Trump's top objectives should be winning Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, and keeping Arizona and Ohio.

Today's Electoral College snapshot from Real Clear Politics has Clinton winning 292-246

Today's Electoral College snapshot from Real Clear Politics has Clinton winning 292-246

Real Clear Politics shows Trump up 1 in the Electoral College with 165, Clinton down 12 with 188, and 185 too close to call, up 11 from last week Tuesday.

Based only on the polling as of this morning in the toss-up states with 185 Electoral College votes at stake, Trump wins in NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, and GA, bringing him to 246, 24 shy of the 270 he needs to win.

Clinton wins in MN, WI, MI, NH, ME, PA, VA and FL, bringing her to 292, 22 more than she needs to win.

Trump has picked up NV, CO and NC in the last week in this analysis, but lost FL to Clinton by a hair.

Clinton is polling under +4 in ME, under +2 in PA and under +1 in FL this week.

Trump is much more vulnerable, polling under +3 in NV, AZ and OH this week. He is polling under +1 in CO and NC. In GA he's ahead +4.5, in IA +5.

ME-2 has moved out of the toss-ups in the last week, and ME and MN have moved in.

42 days to election day 2016.

Today's Real Clear Politics' "No Toss Up States" Map has the worst woman since Jezebel winning in the Electoral College by two

Polling schmolling: In September to date it's been from Clinton +8 to Trump +5

Like I'm supposed to believe these polls are doing anything but suppressing the vote, not measuring it.

NBC News and The Wall Street Journal hate Donald Trump, so when they come out tonight with Clinton +7 through 9/19 am I going to believe that when the LA Times/USC poll which cants slightly Republican has Trump +5 through the same date?

Of course not.

The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton +1.9, from polls generally hostile to the threat posed by Donald J. Trump. We're doing OK.

Today's Electoral College snapshot from Real Clear Politics has Clinton winning 293-245

Real Clear Politics shows Trump with 164 in the Electoral College, Clinton with 200, and 174 too close to call.

Based only on polling in the toss-up states with 174 as of this morning, Trump wins AZ, IA, OH, ME-2, GA and FL, bringing him to 245, 25 shy of the 270 he needs to win.

Clinton wins NV, CO, WI, MI, PA, NH, VA and NC, bringing her to 293, 23 more than she needs to win.

If Clinton lost NC and NV where the polls are razor thin, she would still prevail with 272. Lose in addition either CO or VA where her lead is under +4 and she's a goner.

Trump is currently under +2 in AZ, OH and FL.

49 days to election day 2016.

Hillary's polling has pneumonia

This afternoon Hillary is polling +0.9 in the Real Clear Politics average of seven polls. On 9/11 she was +3.1.

The LA Times/USC poll has Trump +7. On 9/11 it was Hillary +1.4. That's a swing of over eight points toward Trump.

The Rasmussen poll on Thursday had Trump +2. A week prior to that it was Clinton +4. That's a six point swing toward Trump.