Friday, November 4, 2016

This morning's Electoral College prediction with 4 days to Election 2016: Clinton 298 to Trump 240

Clinton begins with 226 Electoral College votes on the Real Clear Politics map.

The average of the last poll and the polling average this morning indicates she wins FL (29) by less than 3 points, VA (13) by more than 4 points, PA (20) by 2.5 points, ME-2 (1) by more than 1 point, and CO (9) by more than 1 point.

Trump begins with 180 Electoral College votes and wins NC (15) by 3.9 points, NH (4) by less than 1 point, OH (18) by more than 4 points, IA (6) by less than 1 point, AZ (11) by 4.5 points, and NV (6) by 1 point.

The most recent polls are all tied up in NH, IA, CO and NV.

Clinton is ahead by only 2 points in the latest polls in PA and ME-2. Her margins in the averages are razor thin in FL (1.2) and ME-2 (0.7) and thin in PA (3.0) and CO (2.6).

Trump is ahead by only 1 point in the latest poll in GA (a phony to make him spend money there?). His margins in the averages are razor thin in NC (0.8), NH (1.5), and IA (1.4) and thin in OH (3.3) and NV (2.0).

Clinton's objective is clear: Take away NH, IA and NV from Trump and make him spend money in NC and OH.

Trump's objective is more daunting, to keep NC, NH, IA, OH and NV while pressing hard in PA, ME-2, FL and CO. Trump needs 30 more Electoral College votes to win, which he can get in a few ways, say by winning FL and ME-2, or he can win even if he loses FL by winning PA, CO and ME-2.

Clinton's vulnerability in PA, ME-2, FL and CO adds up to 59 Electoral College votes.

Trump's vulnerability in NC, NH, IA, OH and NV adds up to 49 Electoral College votes.

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