Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Election 2016 turnout update in the 14 largest states by population compared to 2008, one week later: Hillary underperforms Obama by 1.654 million votes in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania

CA: -2.9 million
TX: +0.8m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 340,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
FL: +1.1m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 219,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
NY: -0.5m
IL: flat
PA: +0.02m/flat (Hillary fails to get 424,000 Obama voters from 2008)
OH: -0.34m (Hillary fails to get 623,000 Obama voters from 2008)
GA: +0.2m Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 33,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
NC: +0.4m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 21,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
MI: -0.22m (Hillary fails to get 607,000 Obama voters from 2008)
NJ: -0.1m
VA: +0.3m
WA: -0.1m
AZ: +0.2m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 89,000 votes but still lost to Trump)

Total turnout down in six states: 4.16 million
Total turnout up in seven states: 3.02 million
Turnout net down: 1.14 million

Hillary states: turnout down 3.3 million
Trump states: turnout up 2.16 million

Total Hillary outperform Obama, still loses in five states:   702,000 votes
Total Hillary underperform Obama, loses in three states: 1,654,000 votes 

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