Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Revulsion Election 2016 update, two weeks out

Turnout

2016: 133.3 million
2012: 129.2 million
2008: 131.5 million


Popular Vote

Trump/Clinton: 62.0m/63.7m
Romney/Obama: 60.9m/65.9m
McCain/Obama: 60.0m/69.5m
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5.8 million who turned out for Obama in 2008 didn't for Hillary in 2016



Hillary Loses to Trump in 2016 Underperforming Obama 2008 by


424,000 in PA
623,000 in OH
606,000 in MI
294,000 in WI
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1.947 million votes out of total underperformance of 5.8 million, or 33%; another 1.9 million didn't bother showing up for Hillary in California (800K), New York (700K) and Illinois (400K).


Trump Margin of Victory in

PA: 66,000
OH: 455,000
MI: 13,000
WI: 24,000

From Trump's 306 Electoral College votes peel off MI, he'd have been at 290.

Peel off WI he'd have been at 280.

Peel off PA he'd have lost with 260, despite winning OH handily and also FL.

This election really came down to those 66,000 votes in Pennsylvania, and the hundreds of thousands of people in the Rust Belt who were alienated from the Democrat Party.

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