Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The narrowness of the Trump victory in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania

Trump's narrowest wins:

Michigan: 13,000 votes
Wisconsin: 24,000 
Pennsylvania: 66,000

The next three:

Arizona: 95,000
Florida: 115,000
North Carolina: 177,000

For Donald Trump, 103,000 votes in the three narrowest states meant the difference between winning with 306 Electoral College votes and losing with 260 despite winning Ohio, North Carolina and Florida.

The win in Michigan looks entirely due to lower (Democrat) turnout in 2016. As of this hour turnout is down 220,000 from 2008. In Wisconsin turnout is identical. In Pennsylvania turnout is up only 20,000.

Compare Trump's win in Ohio, which was by 455,000 votes. Turnout there was down by a whopping 340,000 from 2008. Trump's net from that is 115,000 votes. Recall Romney lost Ohio by a similar sum: 167,000 votes.

Democrats in Rust Belt states look like they abandoned the field. Turnout was either down big or stagnant from 8 years ago despite population nationwide increasing 20 million.

It was revulsion for Hillary. 

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