Monday, November 7, 2016

With polls opening in about 24 hours, 12 states and one congressional district in Maine are Toss Ups

Maine confuses the math because it awards Electoral College votes by congressional district. The race is a toss-up in congressional district 2 where Trump is slightly ahead. If he wins it he gets one Electoral College vote. Congressional district 1 will go to Clinton and she will get its one EC vote, based on the polling data there. Maine is unaccountably listed twice in this table from Real Clear Politics, making it not real clear. "Maine (2)" shouldn't appear in the list, only "Maine CD2 (1)". You'll notice Wisconsin isn't in this list. Why Trump spent valuable time and resources there in the last couple of weeks I don't understand. Virginia would have made more sense, but it too is now absent from the Toss-Ups.

So, with 241 EC votes already projected in the Trump column, if Trump ran this table he'd win overwhelmingly with 320.

If Trump simply keeps what he's got but turns Florida, he wins with 270.

If he doesn't win Florida he'll have to win Pennsylvania and Colorado to win with 270.

Alternatively a win in Pennsylvania and long shot Michigan would give him 277 to win it.

Trump plans to make his last stop of the 2016 campaign tonight in Michigan, right here in Grand Rapids.

Even though polling looks slightly better in New Mexico than in Michigan, New Mexico seems like an even bigger long shot.

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