Middle East tanker transits May 24-30, 2026 per UKMTO JMIC Update 52: Strait of Hormuz 1.7/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.1/day

SoH E: 0.7/day

BAM SE: 7.3/day 

Newsweek's broadest case against Trump economy doomers is real GDP per capita lol

 

Five Numbers That Defy the Trump Economy Doomers

Newsweek

... The broadest case against the collapse narrative starts with real GDP per capita, which reached $70,502 in the first quarter of 2026, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data. ... it is hard to describe an economy as broadly broken when the country is producing more inflation-adjusted output per person than at any point before. ... 

 

If GDP per capita were making America great again, you'd expect it to look more like it did in the post-war from 1947-1984, when we routinely had years with percent change above 4%.

 

Since 1984 we were lucky to get 3% years, and after the Great Recession 2%.

 

The trend since the Trump tax reform in 2017 is flat, merely a continuation of the status quo ante where a 2% year is a win. 

 

This is a picture of an aging economy which has slowed down like an old person slows down. It's still managing, but one of these days it's going to need a nursing home.

 

The idea that more tax cuts will stimulate domestic economic growth has been proven wrong by the Reagan tax cuts. His cuts fueled foreign economic growth, because our rich people weren't very patriotic about what they did with their money.

 

Economic growth requires domestic investment. And we need smart people who know how to coerce that with tax and broader public policies.

 

Donald Trump is not that guy. 

 

 

 

 

Gold and silver are still up 5+% year to date

 SPX +10.52% ytd

WTI +53.11% ytd

 

Meanwhile in April: 

Hamburger +18.9% yoy

Coffee +29.0% yoy

Unleaded regular gasoline +28.0% yoy

Electricity +7.2% yoy

Natural gas +3.1% yoy

[Trump 9/21/2024: "We will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down . . . within 12 months . . ."] 

Milk +1.5% yoy

Whole Chicken -1.6% yoy 

Eggs -56.1% yoy

Tomatoes +50.0% yoy

 

And: 

30-year mortgage average monthly, above 6% since August 2022

Full time jobs above 50% of population just 6 of the last 25 quarters, all under Joe Biden

 

In pop culture news, on Friday's show some perversion was more equal than other perversion: Hot For Teacher 1984 was definitely just fine, 1978's Hot Child In The City . . . not so much

 

The MAGA Marxist wants more stimulus checks

 

The two-week ceasefire will be two months old next week

 

 Trump ends Iran meeting without announcing ‘final determination’ on deal

U.S. and Iran still without deal to end war after Trump says he’s not in a ‘hurry’ 

Because he's Mad King Ludwig, that's why

 

 Fentanyl BAAAAAAAAAAD, Ecstasy GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD.

 Why Trump reversed course to fast-track psychedelic drugs for mental healthcare

Just about everything ships by diesel in the United States, and the price of it is up 59% since Mad King Ludwig was elected in November 2024

$3.52 > $5.60

 

Meanwhile CNBC has an excellent story with great interactive graphs of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait before and after the Houthi and Iran conflicts

 And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.

BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.

SoH transits:

Feb 24 2026: 107.29

Apr 18 2026:   12.57

May 24 2026:    6.00

 

BAM transits:

 

May 24 2023: 82.86

Feb 26 2026:  40.14

May 24 2026: 38.14 

 

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war

... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...

Quite the howler from CNBC this morning: Closure of Strait of Hormuz keeps 100 million barrels a day from reaching global markets lol

Global oil production in 2025 was about 106 million barrels per day.

The Persian Gulf share of that was about 31 million barrels per day. 

 

 Analysis: The Iran war has made inequality worse. An end won’t fix it

The GOP just had a terrible May, generic Congressional poll shows Republicans collapsing to 40.7% giving Democrats an 8.1-point advantage

 

When 86 is the good news

The sum of the average prices of five ingredients for your April 2018 BLT (bacon, lettuce, tomato, lightly toasted white bread in butter) is 86-cents less in April 2026 than it otherwise would have been if it had increased as much as overall inflation has increased, up 27% instead of 33%.

Don't spend it all in one place.

Jeff Bezos disposed of some your personal income last night lol

I mean, you blow yours on fireworks, why shouldn't he?

 

Middle East tanker transits May 21-27, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.3/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.6/day

SoH E averages 1.3/day

BAM SE averages 7.3/day

 

Trump inflation is Bush-league: PCE inflation goes boing, core PCE inflation 3.3% year over year takes us back to early 1992

And you remember what happened to Bush 41 in 1992.

 

boing

Trump's core pce inflation is Bush-league (41!)

Real GDP in 1Q2026 second estimate revised lower from 2.0% annualized to 1.6% annualized "primarily reflecting downward revisions to investment and consumer spending" lol

 I guess those trillion$ Trump said were coming into the country have not come in, and consumer spending is higher only because everything costs so damn much more due to inflation.

May 21: Consumers are still spending, but cracks are starting to show

Dec 5: Trump touts over $20 trillion in new U.S. investments, but the numbers don't add up

 

A191RL1Q225SBEA: 1Q1984-1Q2026 Trend

 

Uganda closes border with Congo where as many as 220 already may be dead from Ebola

 ... The number of suspected cases in eastern Congo is nearing 1,000, with at least 220 suspected deaths. Congo’s health ministry on Tuesday said 101 cases have been confirmed, and they are looking into over 3,000 possible contacts. ...

More. 

Trump disapproval new high 58.6%

 

Donald Trump is the leader of the Party of Violence

Dana White Took the UFC From the Fringes to the White House

Sean Gregory, Time 

 

... MMA was once considered so savage that at the turn of the century, unlike pornography and other controversial fare, it wasn’t even carried on pay-per-view in many places. Now, the UFC is so mainstream that CBS, a network that on Saturday nights once aired Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman, is showing Swanson club Landwehr’s cranium with his right hand, knocking him out in the first round. ...  The UFC packs arenas around the world, and the most powerful person on the planet, right beside White, is its promoter in chief. ... Across the room [of White's office in Vegas] are two pistols. One barrel is cloaked in a red bible cover, the other in a black one. “Those two books have killed more people than any handgun ever made,” says White. “I am very antireligion.” ...                         

When I was a kid we used to laugh at boys with girly names like Dana.

Maybe Dana White's masculinism is as simple as that.

 

 

The good news is that the phony Chip Roy lost, the bad news is that the crook Ken Paxton won

 But! it will not be without humor, and with any luck Cornyn will serve out his term impeding Trump's impulses.

Paxton: Talarico Is A Vegan Who Thinks God Is Non-Binary And There Are 6 Sexes

Talarico Denies He's Vegan: "I've Been Eating Barbecue Since Before Ken Paxton's First Indictment"

 

   

Conservatism in 2026 according to National Review

 

Nothing screams conservatism like production and consumption

 FDR merely gave you a check every month in your retirement, but conservatives gave you gas.

Middle East tanker transits May 19-25, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.4/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.4/day

 The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.

The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.

There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update. 

BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.

Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full. 

SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.

 

Trump cabinet keeps on sucking until it does succeed

 

 

Cabinet Devotes 1 Out of Every 6 Sentences Sucking Up to The Don...

Russia informs Rubio what's good for the goose is good for the gander, plans decapitation strikes to get Zelenskyy after Rubio flubs up and signs his death warrant by ending talks

 

 Russia tells Rubio U.S. citizens should leave Kyiv ahead of strikes on Ukrainian capital 

... Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “officially informed” Washington that Russia would be launching “systematic and consistent strikes” against Ukrainian military facilities and what Moscow called “decision-making centers,” in a call with Rubio on Monday, according to the Russian government. ... Rubio told journalists on Friday that U.S.-led efforts to negotiate a peace deal had ended, explaining that previous talks “were not fruitful.” ...

Yeah, Iran is blinking so hard it's laying more mines in the Strait of Hormuz ROFLMAO

 U.S. conducts ‘self-defense strikes’ in Iran as Trump pushes for peace deal

... CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. ...

Why is the winner pushing for a peace deal?

Usually the loser does that. 

Iran is in the ‘process of blinking’ over the Strait of Hormuz, Petraeus says  

Trump offers a poison pill to sabotage everything

 Trump links Abraham Accords to Iran deal

Again, why did the squirrel cross the road? 

That Robert Kagan accusation in The Atlantic really got to them lol

 Iran is in the ‘process of blinking’ over the Strait of Hormuz, Petraeus says

Failure of nerve: Trump's ceasefire has only made Iran stronger with each passing day and their negotiating position its strongest in 47 years

Hostilities lasted 38 days. 

Today is the 48th day of the ceasefire, the chicken-out. 

Asia is sucking fumes.

Europe is buying from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and will be in trouble similar to Asia in June, and the US itself will develop problems in July.

Oil market at ‘tank bottoms’ in Asia, and Europe isn’t far behind, warns market veteran Jeff Currie 

... “I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” Currie said. ... “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil and inventories continue to drop,” he said. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.” 

The tyrant is the slave of desires which he is utterly unable to satisfy

 

General Flynn wants a word with the manager lol

 

Only one side feels compelled to make peace in the Persian Gulf, and it ain't Iran

 

Trump's White House director of communications tells off former Trump Secretary of State, who is rightfully worried about today's Iran peace deal rumors

One of the more disgraceful displays of the second term.

 

 

Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a free man

 Judge dismisses criminal charges against Kilmar Abrego Garcia in human trafficking case: A federal judge wrote that the investigation against Abrego in Tennessee was reopened to justify the administration’s decision to deport him to El Salvador

... Sean Hecker, Abrego’s attorney, said that his client “is a victim of a politicized, vindictive White House and its lawyers at what used to be an independent Justice Department. We are so pleased that he is a free man. Justifiably so.” ... 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 44.8 has never been lower

... Gallup’s findings were echoed by University of Michigan data released Friday that showed consumer sentiment falling to its lowest point since the survey began in 1952. ...

 

-- WaPo 

 

Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries:

 

The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April. ...                                      

 

But it's the Golden Age! 

Welcome back to 2022

 Yikes.

 

Because her husband has been diagnosed with a rare form of cancer

 Tulsi Gabbard resigning as Trump’s intelligence chief

The LORD hath chosen the Anglo-Saxons to be a peculiar people unto himself, above all the nations that are upon the earth lol

 

Robert Kagan: Trump seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat

Which is exactly what Trump did a year ago in the Red Sea.

Beyond the near term endgame Kagan describes, and the isolation of Israel in particular, Trump's cowardice, weakness, and incompetence will have the unintended consequence of reinvigorating the climate and green energy madness which has already weakened the West. 

From the story here: 

... In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis.

... Trump has blinked many times in the confrontation with Iran—ever since March 18, when Israel attacked the Pars gas field and Iran retaliated with a strike against Qatar’s most important natural-gas-production facility. Trump then called for a halt on U.S. and Israeli targeting of Iran’s energy infrastructure, and the war effectively ended. 

... [Iran's] terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions. For Trump to respond to this defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat.

... with 30 more days to heal, rearm, and fill its coffers with tolls, Iran will be a more formidable adversary. In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports, Iran has been using the cease-fire period [since April 7] to “normalize” its control over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations without such deals.

... Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin. 

... By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war. Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.

... The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. ...

Rubio is so stupid: The leader of NATO attacked Iran on February 28th

 Rubio: We're Very Upset With NATO For Refusing To Do Anything in Iran

Another story deliberately buried in the holiday weekend by the Democrat jerks who bailed on Biden at the eleventh hour and blame him for Kamala's loss to Trump

  Democrats’ draft autopsy report on 2024 Kamala Harris loss blames Biden’s political operation

Sounds like a resumption of hostilities is imminent

  Acting Navy secretary: Taiwan weapons sales paused to ensure munitions for Iran war

Republican Congress critters got the hell out of town Thursday and won't be back until June and left all this unfinished business in their wake lol

 Republicans lash out over $1.776B ‘anti-weaponization’ fund 

McConnell slams Blanche over ‘slush fund to pay people who assault cops’  

Republicans punt on reconciliation amid furious disagreement over ‘anti-weaponization’ fund  

House Republicans fume at Senate for punting immigration funding package  

House punts Iran war powers resolution vote   

Trump approval among Republicans at new low in Fox News poll   

Trump, facing GOP blowback, sends 5,000 troops to Poland  

(Trump orders withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany amid feud with Merz) 

Yesterday's reported week over week US drawdown of 17.8 million barrels of crude oil was the largest on record

 The announcement was made as usual at 1030 hours.

To head off a price increase in oil Trump at 1052 hours announced that the US was in the "final stages" of the negotiations with Iran, which was a load of crap. 

 

Middle East tanker transits per UKMTO JMIC Update 47 May 12-18, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.00/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.42/day

The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.

There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.

It is what it is.

From JMIC 47

From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!)

 

Look out Maine and New Hampshire, and North and South Carolina, they'll be comin' for your lithium when they come

 The Appalachian Mountains hold enough lithium to make 500 billion cellphones, researchers discover: Researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the ancient Appalachians mountain system holds 2.5 million tons of the critical element lithium

 

... Mining these deposits would involve opening giant pits and destroying wildlife habitats, affecting the landscape and regional biodiversity. It would also create harmful pollution due to waste products such as fluids and finely ground rock that can leach trace elements into the ground and waterways. Additionally, the heavy machinery that would be required for hard-rock mining in the Appalachians would pump huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and extracting lithium from those rocks would involve toxic chemicals and more greenhouse gas emissions. 

Ha, what a crock, Trump is the decay personified

 

Trump Saw a Decaying America and Chose To Fight It

James Thorne, RealClearPolitics

Instead of sovereignty we get imperial intimidation and alienation of our friends, servile acquiescence to the despotism of our foes, and two wars fought to a stalemate in the Middle East in just fourteen months. 

 

Instead of production we get sub-post war GDP, sub-50% level full time employment, and a sub-2.1% replacement fertility rate of 1.57%.

 

Instead of fiscal discipline we get $2.3 trillion new total public debt in just the first year.

 

And instead of strategic clarity we get Ukraine blamed for its own invasion. 

Trump cuts off his nose in the primaries to spite his face

  Trump’s primary push could leave him with short-term problem in Congress 

... the defeated or retiring incumbents he’s targeted remain in office until the end of their terms.  

Those lawmakers, who no longer face voters and have little political incentive to fall in line, could make things difficult for Trump and GOP leaders as they feel more emboldened to push back against key partisan legislation. In a narrowly divided Congress, even a handful of GOP defections can derail a party-line bill. ...

You betcha.

 

Bill Cassidy in the Senate is already a problem for Trump post-defeat.

So is defeated Thomas Massie in the House.

Still in the crosshairs:

Sen. John Cornyn, Rep. Lauren Boebert, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.

Already alienated and retiring:

Sen. Thom Tillis, Rep. Don Bacon. 

Expect little to pass easily before November under these new intra-GOP adversarial circumstances, and even less after a Blue Wave.

 

 

Everybody's asking . . .

  How low can Trump’s poll numbers go? 

... The president’s average approval rating still hasn’t reached its lowest mark ever recorded. He fell to just above 37 percent in RealClearPolitics’s average in December 2017. ... 

You wake up in the morning and yep, Trump has sunk to new record lows in the polling average overnight

 Disapproval is at a new high 58.5% in the average.

Approval is at a new low 39.4% in the average.

Real Clear Politics polling average:

 

 

 

It's amazing that the answer of Donald J. Trump and now J. D. Vance to Senator John Cornyn of Texas is a crook

 

 

... Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she couldn’t understand Trump’s thinking, given that Paxton was charged with felony securities fraud and faced a lengthy prison sentence that he managed to avoid by reaching a deal with prosecutors to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution and complete 100 hours of community service.

“I don’t understand. He is an ethically challenged individual,” Collins said of Trump’s support of Paxton, who was charged of defrauding investors in a Dallas-area tech startup. The charges were later dropped after he agreed to a pretrial diversion program. ...

More.