Sunday, August 9, 2026

Yes, but it's been all downhill for six years already

 ... There are already a record 11.6 million Americans aged 65 and older still punching the clock. ... today’s elderly may actually be the last generation capable of working until they die on this scale. ...

More.

The percentage of older Americans working peaked in 2019-2020, as Peak Baby Boom 1957 turned 62. It's been all downhill from there.

The phenomenon has been a function of the size of the cohort relative to the overall population. The Baby Boom is like a dead bunny passing through the body of the snake.

Meanwhile the author fears the jobs these older people do are vulnerable to replacement by AI because they are supposedly overwhelmingly cognitive, so that younger workers will never be able to work until age 67 like many older Americans currently do.

But older workers are a diverse lot, performing a variety of work that can't be dismissed as simply cognitive.

Currently, the top 20 jobs by headcount of workers 55 and over according to the BLS are quite diverse, and categories where growth is expected to one degree or another in green outnumber those where stagnation and decline are expected in red by 3.5:1:

Truck, delivery, tractor trailer drivers 1.3m
Secretaries/admins 1.05m
Registered nurses 1m
Dirty rotten CEOs/senior management 0.95m
Retail supervisors 0.85m
Janitors/cleaners 0.8m
Teachers through grade eight 0.75m
Bean counters/financial managers 0.7m
Retail clerks 0.65m
Personal care aides 0.6m
Farmers/ranchers 0.55m (more than 54% of the industry)
Post-secondary educators 0.5m
Real estate agents 0.45m
Lawyers 0.4m
Property managers 0.35m
Home health aides 0.35m
Bus drivers 0.32m
Maids/housekeepers 0.3m
Billing/posting clerks 0.25m
Religious workers 0.22m.