Just a reminder that the Fed said all these purchases it made in 2008 and again in 2020 were just temporary

Now Fed Chair Powell has just said it's time for the pace of the roll-off to slow.

That's the curved line slowly trending down from it's peak near $9 trillion to $7.5 trillion now.

Just as the National Debt will never be paid down, the Fed will never stop intervening in the Treasury market to limit supply and support prices, which suppresses market driven interest rates. 

Powell isn't serious about fighting inflation.

 

 

The percentage holding full-time jobs through September 2022 held above 50%, disappointing the ubiquitous advocates of a Fed interest rate pivot

 Full time as a percentage of civilian population in September was 50.3%, and for 2022 through September averaged 50.15%.

Not bad, considering.

The Fed will see little evidence in this figure that its interest rate increase policy is harming employment.

Stocks on Friday collapsed after a head fake to start the week to within 1.5% of the 52-week lows set a week ago.

Long term investment grade bonds and US Treasury securities also revisited lows from 9/27/22, coming within pennies of those benchmarks.

30-year yield for UST is back up to 3.86%. It was 3.87% on 9/27. At the beginning of 2022, yield was a paltry 2.01% by comparison.

UK gilts are experiencing the same action despite the Bank of England intervening to buy bonds. 

The bond crisis is not over.

With yields soaring across the board no one wants to own the lower paying outstanding issues, which are legion, destroying their value.

But everything in the global economy is based on those, piled up in earnest after The Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and in orgiastic frenzy afterwards during the late pandemic.

Bond yields in 2022 are telling you that they are overvalued by 92%.

Stock market valuation is telling you a similar thing.

From 1938 through 2019 the median ratio of the S&P 500 to GDP is 81. In 2020 we averaged 154, or 90% overvalued.

This is the major deflationary headwind facing the world, the other side of the COVID-19 inflationary shock coin.

Push here, it comes out over there.

Modern central banking cannot escape this conundrum any more than the gold standard could.

The only thing the individual can do in this situation is to owe nothing and save everything, preferably in your hands.

Good luck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fed is all talk and no action fighting inflation

 The effective federal funds rate stands at 2.33% and $8.85 trillion remains on the balance sheet while Powell makes speeches.

Borrowing is still very cheap for the big boys and the Fed's finger on the scale makes it impossible to know the true value of its mortgage backed securities and US Treasuries.

Meanwhile inflation rages at 8.5% in July.

The market "rout" is merely another yawn as Americans get punished at the grocery store and the gas station.

Current GDP of $24.883 trillion, reported 8/25, implies a fairly valued market level of around 1,600 not 4,057. The S&P 500 remains 153% above that.

They remain rich, and you remain . . . the reason why.

 

LOL, after one month the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by a whopping 0.37%, only $8.899 trillion to go!

 

 

 

At this rate it will take only 22 more years and Jerome Powell will be 91.

Crony Socialism: Fed Profits On College Student Loans Rank Third Behind Exxon-Mobil And Apple!

Or is that socialist cronyism?

Anyway, those thirsty blood suckers in the federal government made $41.3 billion off the nation's college student loan program in fiscal 2013, according to the Detroit Free Press, here:

It’s a higher profit level than all but two companies in the world: Exxon Mobil cleared $44.9 billion in 2012, and Apple cleared $41.7 billion.

--------------------------------------

That's not quite right, however.

In 2012 the profits thrown off from massive numbers of government bonds and mortgage backed securities "purchased" by the Federal Reserve and returned to the Treasury by the Fed were more than double that, as reported here last January:

The Federal Reserve sent a record $88.9 billion in profits to the Treasury Department in 2012 as it reaped gains from the unconventional programs it launched to spur economic growth.

Last year's remittance to Treasury topped the previous record of $79.3 billion in 2010, Fed records show.

Tonight's Balance Sheet Of The Federal Reserve: $1.2 Trillion In Shitty Mortgages

Look for yourself, here.

$1.2 trillion is the "remaining principal balance of the underlying mortgages". That's one third of the total balance sheet.

Acquired at the pace of $40 billion a month, it would take the Fed 2.5 years to acquire all that crappy mortgage paper, but of course the latest iteration of MBS acquisition at $40 billion a month has been going on only since last September. That means just $440 billion of the $1,200 billion has been acquired recently.

There's a whole lotta crummy paper out there, folks. And Ben Bernanke and the US Federal Reserve Bank have been buying it . . . just for you!

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Ammo: About $1 Trillion in MBS Garbage

(source)