Here's the progression:
50k 4/24
60k 4/29 5 days
70k 5/5 6 days
80k 5/11 6 days
90k 5/18 7 days
100k 5/27 9 days
110k 6/7 11 days
120k 6/22 15 days.
Stay-at-home orders, growth of clinical expertise, and increased mask-wearing among other things have all made a huge impact on the growth of deaths.
New daily deaths hit 275 on Sunday, which was last lower way back on March 25, with 270.
It looks like it will take something like another 20 days to add another 10k deaths, so 130k by roughly July 15. On May 18 I projected 155k by then, so obviously there's been a big slow down since late May when the projected 100k deaths projected was met.
That's the good news.
The bad news is case counts nationally are rising again after bottoming on May 11. New daily cases were so high on June 20 that you had to go back to May 1 to find a higher single day. In key states in the South this increase is not attributable to increased testing, especially in Florida where testing has declined and in other states where hospitalization increases are outstripping testing increases. Texas, Arizona, California and the Carolinas are all pointed to as examples.
Expect death counts to pick up again starting roughly July 15 due to the mid-June turn higher in cases. It takes about 28 days from classification as a case to classification as a death, according to the modeling.
Death is a lagging indicator. Low deaths today are the result of good action taken many yesterdays ago.
Stay-at-home orders, growth of clinical expertise, and increased mask-wearing among other things have all made a huge impact on the growth of deaths.
New daily deaths hit 275 on Sunday, which was last lower way back on March 25, with 270.
It looks like it will take something like another 20 days to add another 10k deaths, so 130k by roughly July 15. On May 18 I projected 155k by then, so obviously there's been a big slow down since late May when the projected 100k deaths projected was met.
That's the good news.
The bad news is case counts nationally are rising again after bottoming on May 11. New daily cases were so high on June 20 that you had to go back to May 1 to find a higher single day. In key states in the South this increase is not attributable to increased testing, especially in Florida where testing has declined and in other states where hospitalization increases are outstripping testing increases. Texas, Arizona, California and the Carolinas are all pointed to as examples.
Expect death counts to pick up again starting roughly July 15 due to the mid-June turn higher in cases. It takes about 28 days from classification as a case to classification as a death, according to the modeling.
Death is a lagging indicator. Low deaths today are the result of good action taken many yesterdays ago.
