The Fed chair was looking for evidence of transitory inflation for twelve months while actual, raging inflation was staring him in the face the whole time and he did nothing about it

 In his testimony yesterday, Jerome Powell said he uses a table of the last twelve months of 12-month readings of inflation.  In other words, year-over-year readings.

It showed him no evidence of inflation coming down, in other words, of inflation being "transitory".

"We're exactly where we were a year ago." In other words, yep, inflation is raging. It's not transitory.

If you aren't appalled by that, I don't know what to say.

In April 2021 inflation year over year was already at the 2008-level of bad, and the Fed chair decided to wait and see if it became a "problem".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He waited a year, until Mar 2022, to begin raising the main interest rate.

I'm sure the reason is that in April 2021 he was focused on the pandemic as the number one problem. Vaccine uptake reached its crescendo that month, and Jay was praising the COVID stimulus orgy to restart the economy.

But the pandemic wasn't his job. Stable prices is his job, and he let it slide because of the extraordinary circumstances.

Now we're in a whole other big mess. Gutting the bond market is going to be life-changing for far longer than the pandemic will be.

Here's the video from yesterday with the key interchange.

This is Trump's boy, by the way.

 

Democrats simply hate big oil and are oblivious to the windfall profits of their pals in tech which dwarf those of the oil industry

 

Capitol Police do another bang-up job, so to speak

 Capitol Police cameras caught break-in at Pelosi home, but no one was watching...

. . . hours after Pelosi left San Francisco last week and returned to D.C., much of the security left with her, and officers in Washington stopped continuously monitoring video feeds outside her house.

Democrats in Michigan incessantly advertise on YouTube against Republican John Gibbs in MI-3, featuring scarry pictures of a big, very black man with troglodyte views on women, abortion, and Medicare

Your Democrat choice in the race is a very white female, a progressive extremist who served in the Obama Injustice Department and who was defeated last time around by Peter Meijer.

My extremely stupid progressive neighbor had a sign out for the Democrat early in September until he figured out a couple of weeks later that our street had been re-districted out of MI-3. 

The Democrat's campaign clothes her extremism in the glow of her Christian faith to make her more acceptable to the white, right of center, evangelical population around Grand Rapids.

On YouTube Gibbs seems to run one ad for every twenty the Democrats run.

 

Jim Cramer says the market is overbought so sell something, which means . . . it'll probably rally lol

 

At 194 at the January 2022 high or 139 at the October 2022 low, it's all the same to me

Obscenely overpriced.

 

 

We have to draw a straight line from Bernie Sanders to the Republican Congressional baseball shooting where progressive James T. Hodgkinson tried to kill 24 Republicans

 

Swalwell: We Have To Draw A Straight Line From January 6th to Paul Pelosi Attack

 

There is no Wikipedia page for James T. Hodgkinson. 

 

 

 

Distressed debt reaches $271 billion after five straight weeks of growth

 Growing Pile of Distressed Debt Signals Coming US Default Wave

(Bloomberg) -- A heap of distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow. The amount of dollar-denominated bonds and loans trading at levels indicating distress is the largest since September 2020, reaching $271.3 billion last week after five straight weeks of growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ... the supply of distressed debt is still a fraction of the almost $1 trillion peak level in 2020 . . ..     

With long-term Treasury investments down 32% year to date, and long-term investment grade down 30%, you can imagine what's happening downstream and behind the scenes.

Bloomberg cites Carnival Corp. as an example, which had to pay 6% for loans in 2021 but is paying 10.75% now. That's 79% more expensive for Carnival.

Have you tried to buy a house?

A 30-yr fixed rate mortgage would have cost you on average 3.14% one year ago. Today it'll cost you 7.08%, an increase of over 125%.

US home price plunge is ‘just beginning’ as housing market rapidly cools: economist

Do you own stocks?

You are still down over 18% year to date despite the 7% rebound in October.

 

The recent stock market rally can be rightly viewed as part of an orderly selling process which has been underway all year. The March high failed the January high, and the August high failed the March high. The current rally is unlikely to succeed the August high. It has to be remembered this is all occurring in the context of a rising interest rate environment, which is negative for stocks, housing, and bonds.

Bull market advocates, who have stocks to sell to you, don't forget, have persistently ignored the distorting effects of Fed interest rate suppression. In fact, they've counted on that suppression. They call it the Fed Put. They laugh at these puny Fed rate hikes, and make gazillions off the inflation trade. Now they're ignoring the unwind, too, which is affecting all debt. Stocks are debts, too, don't forget. Up or down, they make money off the direction. The bull market cheerleaders are worse than used car salesmen.

October 31 marks the end of the fiscal year for investment companies, who have dividends to distribute by calendar year's end to avoid taxation as registered investment companies. In an already down year, they have had a huge incentive to finish the fiscal year on as strong a note as possible. That may account for the strong October for stocks.

Normally the investment companies would be selling their losers by October 31 for tax-loss harvesting purposes. If that's happening you wouldn't know it from the monthly view of the S&P 500 in October. The DOW and the Russell 2000 were up even more. Even the NASDAQ is up in October.

But the S&P 500 low of the year did occur on October 12 at 3577, ringed by heavy selling on Sep 30 and Oct 14, after which it has been elevator up. That was probably the tax-loss harvesting for fiscal 2022.

In any event rising interest rates remain negative for the bond market, the housing market, and for stocks. The consequences of massive debt repricing are only just beginning to be felt. Stocks will hold out the longest because they can. First the bonds, then the housing, then the stocks. The rest of us are just collateral damage.

The expected 0.75 point Fed interest rate decision is Wednesday, November 2, less than one week before the election. Don't expect the Fed to do more than this, even though they damn well ought.   

Here's a nice shot of recession forecast as shown by US Treasury yield curve compression, daily view, 10/26/1999 through 10/26/2022

 

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke once famously said on 60 Minutes that if inflation ever got out of control they could raise interest rates in 15 minutes

 The first Fed rate hike under Powell came in March when inflation was already way out of control, and Americans began loading up their charge cards at 18-28% interest to cope.

That's even more insane to me than the inflation.

The main Fed interest rate is still at 3.08% today, the rate available only to the banks, the same guys who pay you 0% interest, with inflation just cruising along up there above 8%.

It took the Fed over a year to move. A year. And then by just 0.75 points at a time, which the stock market parasites screamed bloody murder about.

Pretty amazing to me that ordinary folks aren't screaming, aren't mad as hell, and seem to be prepared to just swallow and take it some more.

I guess the fight has been bred out of the American people.

Sad!

 

Nominal GDP is up $2.1 trillion in the last fiscal year, the national debt is up $2.5 trillion

 

The Treasury yield curve compresses narrowly into a thin thread before recessions, so it looks like one is imminent

Yield across the board right now is in the 4s except for one and two month money. The one year is the leader, roughly in the middle of the pack, around which the other rates have been organizing.

Interestingly enough, compound annual growth of nominal GDP since the year 2000 22 years ago has come in at 4.18% through 2Q on 2Q. The 30-yr tonight is yielding 4.19%. This looks like rate normalization to me because rates are compressing in that vicinity, finally commensurate with actual economic growth, after the pitiful all-time-low average annual 30-yr yield in 2020 at 1.56%. We haven't had a 4% average 30-yr yield since 2010.

Given the extraordinary interventions by the US Federal Reserve over the period to suppress interest rates, we may see them explode the other way given the length and depth of the distortions. Trillions upon trillions of US Dollar denominated debt was sold at those repressed prices. In 2020 alone we're talking about $2.9 trillion in 2-10yr Treasury notes, not counting the short end bills and the long end bonds, all yielding well under 1%. It could get really ugly.

Recession doesn't always happen right away, but the signal is pretty clear. It seemed to take forever in the late 1990s.

As always, click images to enlarge.

Recessions are in gray.

And as always, this is not investment advice.

daily view through 10/25/22

monthly view through Sep 2022

The entire US Treasury yield curve bows and worships at the feet of the 1-year Treasury for an eighth day now, and you know what that means

 When the upstart 1-year tries to compete with the long end, you in for a heap a trouble boy.

Yippee-ki-yay.

Sunday morning comedy from CNBC

 

There are only 4 U.S. cities where the average American can afford a starter home

 

Detroit, Tulsa, Memphis, and Oklahoma City

 

Pack the bags, honey! We're moving! 

Rock-bottom yielding 30-year US Treasury from two years ago sold at pandemic sky-high price sells at a 50% discount

Yippee-ki-yay.

 

Inflation is the bill you pay later for the prosperity you borrowed now

 Welcome to later.

The US Treasury crash is epitomized by what's happened to Vanguard's long term Treasury mutual fund VUSTX

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fund is down to $8.36 tonight, 2 cents away from its all time low set on October 19, 1987 at $8.34. That was 35 years ago last night, when the stock market fell 20% in one day.

The 30-year US Treasury back then paid 10.25% on that date. Tonight it pays just 4.24%.

This Vanguard fund, which invests in such securities, year to date has returned -33%. Given the yield discrepancy, it would seem foolhardy to believe that the bottom is in. I wouldn't be surprised if the fund makes dramatic new lows, never before seen.

Meanwhile imagine losing money like that on America's safest of investments.

It's truly appalling and ranks right up there with America losing its AAA status under Barack Obama. I guess it's fitting that it's happening under his former Vice President.

This is a bitter anniversary of fear, and a day of loathing

Exactly 35 years ago tonight this fund marked its all time low at $8.34 when stocks crashed 20% in one day, October 19, 1987.

It happened because it was a flight to safety, the US long bond being the safest haven in the world. Prices move inverse to yields. The price crashed because everyone plowed into it, and the yield soared to 10.25% as a result. As such, the all time price low is meaningless for bonds, but full of meaning for stocks.

At $8.49 tonight, however, the price is just $.15 higher than it was 35 years ago, but for an entirely different reason.

In 1987 the price crashed due to stock market fear; in 2022 it's due to bond market loathing, in particular, loathing of existing US debt which pays too little for the risk being taken. At 4.15% tonight, yield on the long bond has a long way to go to credibility. More importantly, the market is SHOUTING that trillions of dollars of existing US debt pays its holders a reprehensible sum.

People should think hard about what that means.

Faith in America hangs in the balance and is found wanting.

 

 

Bond vigilantes on the move everywhere

 Yippee-ki-yay.

 

 

The COVID-19 emergency continues to Jan 11 despite Biden saying the pandemic's over in September on 60 Minutes: They keep kicking the can down the road to avoid implications for vaccines

 The FDA would have to use the normal process for approving the vaccines, and based on the corners cut to get the vaccines to market, that looks unlikely.

Furthermore, removal of the emergency authorizations would then expose the manufacturers to lawsuits.

I agree with the guy in the last paragraph below.

Expect indefinite emergency use authorization, at least until Republicans take over the federal government in 2025.

The FDA’s ability to issue emergency authorizations for vaccines, drugs and medical devices would not necessarily end when the Covid public health emergency is lifted. These authorizations rely on a separate determination made by the U.S. health secretary under the law that governs the FDA.

But it could become increasingly difficult for HHS and FDA to justify clearing vaccines and treatments through an expedited process that shortcuts the normal system of approval when the emergency declaration is no longer in place.

Trump administration Health Secretary Alex Azar activated the FDA’s emergency authorization powers in March 2020, about two months after first declaring the public health emergency.

“It could affect emergency use authorization, where you couldn’t give these EUAs and so the FDA would have to fully approve the drug,” Gostin said. “It could have enormous knock-on effects that need to be very carefully thought through,” he said of ending the public health emergency.

But James Hodge, an expert on public health law at Arizona State University, said the PREP Act declaration that supports Covid vaccinations at pharmacies and the FDA’s power to grant emergency use authorizations will probably remain in place for years to come.

More.