Sunday, November 27, 2022

An unappreciated factor in the relatively poor Republican performance in Election 2022 is the death of many of their voters due to the pandemic

 Older voters skew Republican, and COVID-19 victims skew overwhelmingly older.

A 3- to 4-point Republican advantage among a million deaths of older Americans is up to 40,000 voters nationwide who didn't vote in the election, which doesn't seem like much until you consider that 15 US House races were won by margins of 50% and a fraction.

Republicans won 6 of those races, with one additional race undecided with the Republican leading by just 600 votes.

But Democrats won 8 of those races, and each one by approximately 1,300 to 7,000 votes versus all competitors. In four of those races, with Republican opponents only, the Democrats won by just 1,300 to 3,000 votes.