Friday, January 2, 2015

Index fund flows in 2014 may indicate the top is in, or nearly in

Seen here:

The impact of index funds has been revolutionary. When John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, introduced the first vehicle designed to passively track the performance of a stock index about 40 years ago, it was derided as “Bogle’s Folly.” Today the fund’s successors, at Vanguard and elsewhere, hold $2 trillion in assets. ...

Actively managed funds still hold a majority of total stock fund assets, 63% at the end of September. But in the first nine months of 2014, actively managed stock funds attracted $2.5 billion, while $173 billion found its way into index funds, or 98.6% of the total.

This flood of money into index funds came after the market already had recorded substantial gains. [James] Stack contends that such lopsided affection for passive investing — and the lack of concern for risk that he infers from it — hints at an approaching top, as does the evidence of history.

“Generally, the times when index investing reaches the highest popularity are in aging bull markets or near market peaks,” he says.