Healthcare spending through three quarters of 2014 has been only average, despite what you may have heard about a government conspiracy trying to hide massive spending for political reasons.
Healthcare spending's contribution to GDP in 1Q was -0.16, in 2Q +0.45, and in 3Q +0.52, for an average of three final quarterly reports of healthcare spending on an annualized basis totaling just +0.27 in 2014.
This number is completely within the historical norm for the previous four years, 2010 through 2013, when we had positive contributions of 0.15, 0.28, 0.37 and 0.24, averaging 0.26.
Expect to hear alarm bells sounded again if the 4Q number is high in the first estimate at the end of this month, but you should ignore them. The only proper comparison is with the third and final revision, for which we will have to wait until the end of March 2015.
That's just the way it is.
