Monday, October 29, 2018

NM-2 goes from Republican to tied in latest poll, CA-25 flips dramatically to Republican +4, VA-7 goes Democrat +1 from tied

The electoral math based on the last poll in each toss-up race had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied as of last night.

So the new tie in NM-2 means the math becomes 220 Dem, 209 Rep, 6 Tied.

But CA-25 changes that to 219 Dem, 210 Rep, 6 Tied.

And VA-7 changes that to 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.

Real Clear Politics this morning shows 30 toss-up races, and otherwise gives the Democrats 205 to the Republicans' 200.

5 of the toss-ups are polling tied, 10 are polling Republican, and 15 are polling Democrat.

The average polling lead in the 15 Democrat toss-ups is 2.73 points.

The average polling lead in the 10 Republican toss-ups is 2.9 points.

These polls typically have a margin of error much higher than 2 to 3 points, so this is shaping up to be quite the narrowly fought contest rather than a wave election.

Democrats would be doing better had they not fielded so many extreme candidates.