With 204 seats already likely going Democrat according to Real Clear Politics, 15 toss-up seats tonight are favoring Democrats in the very latest polling, but only by the slimmest of margins, +2.46 per race on average:
MN-1
NV-3
NV-4
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
FL-26
FL-27
IA-3
IL-6
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
VA-5
VA-7.
Five of these are one-point races, six are two-point races.
For their part Republicans are set to take 199 seats, with 11 toss-ups in their column with an average polling advantage per race of +3.27 in the last poll:
CA-25
CA-48
KS-2
KY-6
MI-8
NC-9
NJ-3
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
WA-8.
Five of these also are one-point races, with just one two-point race.
Six seats remain all tied up in the latest poll in each race:
FL-15
ME-2
MI-11
MT-at large
NM-2
UT-4.
