The Utah poll previously showing the race tied runs through 10/26, but a different poll on 10/25 has just been reported showing the Democrat +7.
My rule is to use the latest poll for the math, so I'm making no changes. On top of that, the Democrat +7 result looks really suspicious given the large number of likely voters it claims to have polled, all in just one day! The untimely release is also a flag. They can poll nearly a thousand people in one day but it takes them four to report the results? Looks more like polling as publicity for the candidate in the final week of the campaign than anything else.
The Pennsylvania poll showing the big flip to the Republican is noteworthy because it's the very same poll which showed the Democrat so far ahead just two weeks earlier.
The math had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.
So PA-1 shifts that to 219 Dem, 211 Rep, 5 Tied.
