Thursday, November 1, 2018

With 5 days to go to the election, US House races too close to call now number 34 at Real Clear Politics

Based on the latest dated poll in each race, US House races as of this morning shake out as follows:

Of 34 toss-ups, Democrats are polling ahead in 18 races by an average of +2.83;

Republicans poll ahead in 10 races by an average of +2.50;

5 races are tied, and 1 race has no polling at all.

Democrats are otherwise slated as likely to take 203 seats and Republicans 198.

If the voters vote as the polls predict in the toss-ups, Democrats would take 221 seats, Republicans 208, with 5 tied and 1 unpredictable.

The margin of error in these polls, however, is quite high, often 4 to 5 points.

24 of the 34 races are as close as 0-2 polling points.

218 is needed for a majority.